Underlying Principle: Commitment to achieving the GPRS II objectives and MDGs

Objectives of the GPRS II Goal – per capita income of $1000 by 2015

Objectives/Priorities of the GPRS II – Continued macroeconomic stability (overlap with another UP) – Accelerated private sector-led growth – Vigorous human resource development (overlap with APR discussion) – Good governance and civic responsibility (overlap with another UP)

Continued macroeconomic stability Overall Progress: Progressing Growth : 3.5% growth (4.7% in APR), below original target of 8% (revised to 5.9%) Inflation : Rose from 19.8% in January 2009 to a peak of 20.7% in July, falling to 15.9% in December 2009, and to 13.2% in March Fiscal Deficit : Brought down from 14.5% of GDP in 2008 to 9.7% in 2009, just missing the IMF-ECF target of 9.4%. Down from 20.1 to 11.0 % of GDP including arrears. Debt sustainability remains ‘moderate’ but risk of debt-distress is increasing; pressure on debt is an inevitable consequence of high fiscal deficit External Sector : Foreign reserves around 3 months of import cover by December ($3.2bn), just meeting the target Financial Sector : Stood up well in the face of global financial crisis. Non-performing loans reached 16.2% of gross loans in December 2009, from 7.7% in December 2008 Structural Measures : Some progress on establishing Ghana Revenue Authority but still a lot to do with Business environment, Public wage bill, Oil and Gas, Energy subsidies, Statutory earmarked funds.

Private Sector-Led Growth Overall progress: Slow Key indicators related to private sector competitiveness particularly around interest rates, access to credit, cost of doing business indicators, competitiveness of environment for doing business relative to other countries and firm level competence have not been met. Private sector growth has not transformed the economy, as two commodity exports (gold and cocoa) still drive growth. Non-traditional exports have increased in the last 5 years, but stagnated in The rise in incomes can be partially correlated with private sector investments (domestic and foreign) which contributed to growth. However, significant geographical disparities remain in the distribution of wealth and limited investments and private sector development can be seen in poorer regions such as the three Northern Regions

Human Resource Development Overall progress - progressing MDGAPR AnalysisDP Observations 1.Extreme poverty and hunger Halve the proportion of people below the national poverty line by 2015 Halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Achieved Achieved, though wide disparities remain between regions Achieved, though wide disparities remain between regions. Moreover, data are from GLSS 5 (2005/6), which was before the food price increases. GLSS 6 will be an important source of new data. 2.Universal primary education Achieve universal access to primary education by 2015 Potentially Potentially, though there are concerns about the accuracy of 2009 EMIS data. There are major differences between EMIS and DHS data. 3.Gender equality Eliminate gender disparity in primary and junior secondary education by 2005 Achieve equal access for boys and girls to senior secondary by 2005 Potentially Probably Not met has already past and small levels of gender disparity persist. Potentially (the current trajectory places Ghana just below meeting the target – but with extra effort, the target could be achieved). 4.Under-five mortality Reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015 Potentially Potentially, though dramatic efforts required 5.Maternal mortality Reduce maternal mortality ratio by three- quarters by 2015 Probably Unlikely. The baseline for MMR used by Government is 740/100,000 live births. Results from the Maternal Mortality Survey conducted in 2007 reveal that Ghana’s maternal mortality ratio stands at 451 deaths for every 100,000 live births. The high ratio is also confirmed by the high number of maternal deaths reported by health institutions, indicating that Ghana is off-track to meet MDG 5.

Human Resource Development Overall progress - progressing MDGAPR AnalysisDP Observations 6.HIV/AIDS & Malaria Halt and reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015 Halt and reverse the incidence of malaria Potentially Lack of data Potentially. The prevalence rate in 2008 in roughly the same as that in 2000, though reversal still needs to occur (according to the HIV Sentinel Site Surveillance Survey). Lack of data 7.Ensure environmental sustainability Integrate the principles of sustainable development into the country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources. Half the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water by 2015 Lack of data Probably Lack of data is a constraint. Achieved for water. While Ghana has not reported to the UN on the sanitation target, it is unlikely to be met based on data from the 2008 DHS and 2006 MICS. This takes into account the new MDG indicator on unshared sanitation facilities. 8.Global partnership for development Deal comprehensively with debt and make debt sustainable in the long term Potentially

Good Governance and Civic Responsibility Overall progress: Progressing Major civil society groups now included in dialogue National Governance Roundtable organized Gaps include: – low overall investment in governance institutions which in turn compromises respect for human rights and democratic principles; – significant tolerance for corruption in society, the lack of ethics and integrity; – lack of public confidence in governance institutions; – lack of access to justice and public safety; – challenges to managing accountability & transparency; – plural system of governance; – politicization and non-inclusive nature of decision-making processes; – need for democratic and civic education; and – support for the constitutional review process.

Looking Forward.... Urgent need for a new GPRS or MTDF document Continued allocation and release of funds to social services is required to reverse the declines in recent years.