Public Opinion & Political Socialization

Objectives Define public opinion and explain its role in political decision making. Describe American political culture and explain how it is has evolved over time. Define American exceptionalism and consider the factors that have contributed to this perspective. Understand political socialization and the sources through which Americans learn their values. © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Objectives Identify the ways in which different groups affect public opinion and politics in general. Evaluate the factors that bring about changes in public opinion. Explain how ideologies acquire their structure. Explore the different methods by which public opinion can be measured. © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

Public Opinion Core Questions: Why are we the way we are? Why does it matter to you? In particular, how is public opinion formed and how does it affect policy ? © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4 Consists of the combined voices of all the people in a society on political issues. Until 1940, public opinion complex entity: multiple public voices Polling and survey analysis emerge Measure of all the people’s views As technology and survey analysis techniques advanced, public opinion became understood to be the average of all individual opinions.

Political Culture Political culture Consists of the political attitudes and beliefs held broadly among its citizens. Varies among countries Related to political decision making Usually changes slowly American culture cornerstones Fairness, individualism, religion and rule of law Cornerstones of democracy Tolerance of ideas Trust in government Political efficacy Political knowledge and attention to policies © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

6

7

American Exceptionalism The idea that the U.S. is different from the rest of the world and therefore very special. Used in a number of ways: Unique American ideology: freedom, equality, and individualism Immigrant history: melting pot Shining city on the hill with a special destiny to lead the world to liberty and democracy Different and “better” than the rest of the world Implications for relations with other countries; conflict? © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8

9

Political Socialization Political Socialization : The learning of political values and factual assumptions about politics Occurs most readily in childhood and diminishes as people age. Children learn basic social attitudes in their families. Early political learning is very basic. In adolescence and early adulthood, people form more concrete ideas about politics. Continue to learn and develop; role of extraordinary events Political identities Images of who you are – political content: religion or political party Party identification A sense of belonging or attachment to one or another of the political parties 10 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Political Socialization 11 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Agents of Political Socialization Must be seen as credible and relevant to politics School and College Peer groups & Media Families Political Events (generational effect) Political Events (generational effect)

Group Differences in the United States AGE: American population growing older Differences between younger and older Americans: Older: hold on to status quo view; younger: tend to embrace newer view. Younger voters often willing to support less typical candidates. Race and ethnic groups: The U.S. comprises a diverse population 2050: Only about half population will consist of non- Hispanic whites. Differences across racial/ethnic groups – often related to economic disparities Sometimes issue-specific: Role of life experiences among groups: discrimination Hispanics: socially conservative; economically liberal 12 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

13

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15

Group Differences in the United States Religion: Americans are more religious than citizens of other economically well-off countries. Less developed countries very religious: Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria… Important determinant of voting behavior Catholics: evenly divided among two parties Protestants: mainline and evangelical Tilt toward Republican Party; evangelicals very much so. Jews: more liberal on most issues – 21% identify as Republicans. Muslims: identify with the Democratic Party Strong emphasis on caring for the poor Conservative on moral issues Islam plays a strong role Fear of extremism 16 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

17

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18

Social Class Income differences in the U.S. are greater than in most of the world, and they are increasing. Social class as a political dividing line: FDR and the New Deal Today, low income voters are pulled two ways: social and religious issues pull them toward Republicans; economic issues toward the Democrats. Generally, more toward Democrats. High income voters associated with business interests tend to favor the Republican Party; higher income professionals often side with liberals on social issues. Difficult for Democratic candidates to please both segments of the voting population. 19 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

20

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21

Gender Before 1980s men and women voted alike and held similar views on political issues. Gender gap emerged in 1980s: Women usually vote in greater numbers for Democratic candidates than men do. 2008: The gap was 5%. Differences not found in feminist issues such as abortion and equal rights, but rather in government intervention to help people and issues involving war and foreign policy. Why? Women more nurturing? Women poorer? © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23

Regions of the Country States do not differ a much as “blue” state, “red” state representations suggest. South more conservative on social issues than those who live on the west coast. Regions do not vary much on their views on economic issues or foreign policy. They do divide differently in terms of political party. Democrats: West Coast and Northeast Republicans: Southern and mountain states Split: Midwest © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25

How Public Opinion Changes Public opinion can change. Events or leaders: Clinton and health insurance, Terrorist attacks of 9-11 Generational replacement: Change due to differences between old and new generation. When old die out, overall opinion shifts. 30 to 50 years © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27

Changes in Party Identification Slow decline in party identification. Usually pretty stable; can shift in response to events or leaders. Long-term evolution of party identification does occur: recent history – increase in number of independents Global phenomenon: What has caused this increase in industrialized democracies? Not clear, generally supported explanation. 28 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

How Ideologies Gain Their Structure Ideology has structuring principle – connects concepts so they relate to one another Europe: socialism, Christian democracy United States: example found in limited government, maximum freedom for libertarians Liberalism and conservatism: different structuring principles – what are they? 29 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

How Public Opinion Is Measured Poll – set of questions asked of a carefully constructed sampling of a population. Random sample Margin of error Early Polls Literary Digest poll: did not conduct random samples, only very large ones primarily with middle class voters; did well for a while until 1936 election, when bias appeared in a sample. They predicted Alf Landon the winner, but many of the poor were voting for Roosevelt. Another famous goof: Truman and Dewey Polls stopped two weeks before and missed large surge in Truman support. Today, polls much more accurate. 30 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Polls Today Types of Polls and Techniques Cluster sampling Approximates a true random sample Random digit dialing Internet polling How does it generate a truly random sample? Polls in campaigns Tracking polls Exit polls Push polls What are the limitations of polls? Margin of error Question effects; wording Artificial situations 31 © 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.