:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 1 :: Towards the Future of IT does the path lead through the cloud? Lutz Schubert, Institute of Information Resource Management, University of Ulm High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 2 :: A LITTLE HISTORY LESSON The Future of Information Technology “Where we cannot invent, we may at least improve.” Charles Caleb Colton

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 3 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts Introducing Load Balancing

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 4 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 5 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts Uptake of Outsourcing load balancing

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 6 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 7 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts load balancing outsourcing The Grid & Clouds

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 8 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 9 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts load balancing outsourcing grids & clouds ???

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 10 :: (milltions) Uptake of the Internet number of users number of hosts load balancing outsourcing grids & clouds heterogeneity

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 11 :: At the same time… The value of internet services keeps growing… Source:

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 12 :: The Trend Continues More users (only 25% online now) More devices (also the washing machine goes online) More mobility, within and across borders More global usage

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 13 :: Gives rise to new problems Latency Trust & security Availability Resource utilisation Programmability

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 14 :: The Trend Continues More users (only 25% online now) More devices (also the washing machine goes online) More mobility, within and across borders More global usage

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 15 :: THE PROBLEMS A Quick Report from The Cloud Expert Group “All change is not growth; as all movement is not forward.” Ellen Glasgow future-cc-2may-finalreport-experts.pdf

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 16 :: #1 Higher Availability through Dynamicity

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 17 :: #1 BUT Availability ≠ Speed

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 18 :: #1 Availability ≠ Speed 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* *purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc. 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years* 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years*

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 19 :: #2 Dynamicity vs. Security?

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 20 :: #3 The Whole Application Moves 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* *purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc. 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years* 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years*

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 21 :: #3 each part exhibits different needs… 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* 1 kB~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB~1 week* 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years* 1 kB~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB~2 years* consistency?

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 22 :: #3 … use them

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 23 :: #3 … use them Reduced resource cost – Not all application parts need to scale out fully (less resources) – Faster adaptation time (better dynamicity) – The individual requirements are lower (simpler resources) Higher customer satisfaction – Better fulfillment of availability etc. – Trust & security through hybrid (public-private) clouds

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 24 :: #pragma func main() = heatspread( initmap( heatmap ) ) } #pragma func heatspread(heatmap) = zipWith (+) (heatcell( neighbours(heatmap) )) (heatmap) } Specifies input data dependencies Specifies output dependencies Specifies workflow double heatmap[10]; double heatmap_tmp[10]; void main() { initmap(*heatmap); for (int iter=0; iter<100; iter++) // 100 iterations { heatspread(*heatmap); memcpy(heatmap, heatmap_tmp, 10) } } void heatspread(double** heatmap) { for (int x=0; x<10; y++) { double dphi = heatcell( neighbours(heatmap, x) ); heatmap_tmp[x] = heatmap[x] + dphi; } }... #4 Programmability

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 25 :: #5 Federation / Cloud-Bursting ?

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 26 :: CONCLUSIONS “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” Charles F. Kettering roadmap-dec2012-vfinal.pdf

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 27 :: federated & merged clouds auto-composition demanding services on the fly carry your environment short term mid term long term Cloud Development Roadmap new resources BYODpersonalisationglobalisationservice-centrichuge dataexascalenew IT

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 28 :: The Future is Cloudy? Future environments are – Even more heterogeneous on all levels (specialisation) – Even more widely dispersed (global mobility) – Large scale with little performance per unit (multicore) – Demanding more complex usage scenarios  Clouds are a first reaction to this paradigm change  They are not the FINAL solution  But they are a necessary transition into the future

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 29 :: short term mid termlong term Specific Look at Interoperability new resources BYODpersonalisationglobalisationservice-centrichuge dataexascalenew IT Need for Interoperability Federation Interoperation Deal with heterogeneity Higher portability Reduced lock-in Cloud Bursting

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 30 :: Lutz Schubert Institute of Resource Management, University of Ulm

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 31 :: #4 Programmability (2)

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 32 :: #4 Programmability (2)

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 33 :: #4 Programmability (2)

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 34 :: #4 Programmability (2)

:: eGov Forum :: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: :: :::: 35 ::