Lumpkin Family Foundation July 15, 2010 I.State of the World II.Building Resilient Communities

If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst. Thomas Hardy, 1887

Winds of Change Population Peak Oil Climate Change Ecosystem and Resource Decline Global Finance Social Anarchy

Population World population has increased from one billion people in 1800 to 6.8 billion today, and continues to increase by one billion people every 14 years. Meanwhile, the majority of the current population lives in poverty, 2 billion lack access to clean water and sanitation, and 1 billion are hungry.

Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), World Population Growth, in Billions

United States in 2009 Population = 307 million Annual increase = 3,461, million are “food insecure”

Peak Oil The rate of global oil production has peaked and is entering permanent decline. No combination of alternative energy sources can fill the emerging gap between global demand and supply of oil.

World Energy Use

No silver bullet Tar sands Shale gas Nuclear power Hydrogen Solar Wind ……………………

Climate change The nearly 1°C increase in average global temperature during the last century is largely caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases and has resulted in major biological and physical changes. Further increases of 2°C to 7°C are projected for this century along with impacts ranging from severe to disastrous.

Current effects of global warming include: Expansion of arid regions Acidification of oceans Melting of glaciers and arctic sea ice Forest decline Stronger storms Spread of diseases Sea level rise

Additional warming this century: Likeliest range 2°C to 7°C

European heat wave – August 2003 Temperatures exceeding 38 °C; hottest August on record 35,000 deaths 10% of Portugal’s forests burned $1.5 billion crop damage Record glacial melt Low rivers disrupt transport and drinking water supplies Averaged across the continent, temperatures were 2.3 °C above normal.

Ecosystem and resource decline Every major global ecosystem is in decline along with their ability to provide resources and services essential to human well-being.

About 50 mm (almost 2 inches) per hectare (2.5 acres) of soil blew away from cropland in Kansas during the winter of That's the equivalent of 650 tons of topsoil per hectare.

An unstable global financial system Fiat currencies and a debt-based monetary system require infinite economic growth, while a finite planet ensures that infinite growth is impossible. Exponential increases in money supply, private and public debt, and financial derivatives make major disruptions of the global financial system likely in the near future.

Total debt obligations of the US government exceed $70 trillion. And then there is: Consumer debt Trade debt European and Third World debt Financial derivatives Which combined dwarf the US government debt. GDP of the planet = $58 trillion!

Social anarchy Worldwide, central control by national governments is declining as power shifts to private enterprises, criminal groups, militias, tribes, or general lawlessness.

Collapse Taken together, these trends are symptoms and causes of an irreversible collapse of the global economic and social system. In response, communities worldwide are relocalizing their economies and increasing their resilience in order to survive and even prosper.