Amendments to NTS Shrinkage Reporting Process Nick Reeves

Alignment of NTS & LDZ Shrinkage forecasts  NTS & LDZ Shrinkage forecast periods  LDZ – Financial year (1 April to 31 March)  NTS – Gas year (1 October to 30 September)  Proposal seeks to align NTS and LDZ reporting periods by moving annual forecast of NTS Shrinkage to financial year  Providing transparency to Users  Easier to report on NTS Shrinkage (SO incentive etc)  Amend UNC Section N (a) from ‘no later than 1 Sept’ to ‘no later than 1 March’

Clarification Changes (1)  Following an internal review, it has been identified that UNC Section N requires a number of minor clarifications  Ongoing operational process improvements have led to more accurate shrinkage forecast calculations and data being provided to Users  Review Group 140 principles & MIPI Phase 2  Data item/report explorer has amended the way reports are produced – move away from “flat” monthly reports

Clarification Changes (2)  Proposed changes:  NTS currently producing a daily Unaccounted for Gas (UAG) figure as part of the daily estimate of NTS Shrinkage Factor  Need to clarify that Unaccounted for Gas is included within daily estimation of NTS Shrinkage Factor (2.1.1 (a)) and remove (b)  MIPI changes mean forecast & reporting of month ahead shrinkage factor is out of date/no value  Remove (b)  Discrepancy in reporting date of average monthly ‘assessed’ shrinkage has been identified  Amend from ’15 th Day’ to ’16 th Day’ of following month

Next Steps  Transmission Workstream – 3 rd Dec 09  Publish Modification Proposal – 10 th December 09  UNC Mod Panel – 17 th Dec 09  Consultation & Final Mod Report  UNC Mod Panel – 21 st Jan 10  Ofgem approval  Implementation – 1 st March 10