U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration 1 Critical Transportation Assets, and Sensitivity to Climate Change Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2: Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems & Infrastructure FHWA Office of Planning Environment and Realty May 4, 2010

Purpose of Today’s Meeting Provide overview of Tasks 1 & 2 within the context of the project Introduce proposed plan for identifying: Critical transportation assets (Task 1) Mobile-relevant climate information (Task 2) Sensitivity of critical assets to climate (Task 2) Discuss process for obtaining input and feedback from the Climate Work Group 2

Overview of GC2 Project Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems Task 2: Evaluate Climate Change Effects and Stressors Task 3: Determining Vulnerability of Key Links and Assets Task 4: Develop Risk Assessment &Risk Management Tools Task 5: Coordination with Planning Authorities and Outreach Task 6: Information Dissemination 3

Overview of GC2 Project (cont’d) Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems Which assets in Mobile are most important? Task 2: Climate Impacts How do we determine the likely effects of climate change on Mobile? How could these changes in climate affect the critical transportation infrastructure? Tasks 1 and 2 feed into Task 3 Task 3: Determining Vulnerability of Key Links and Assets 4

What is “critical” infrastructure in the Mobile region? Need to define a process applicable to Highways, Rail, Airports, Ports, Pipelines, and Transit Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 5

What Is the Purpose of This Effort? Determine Subset of Entire Transportation Network on Which to Perform Vulnerability Assessment and Identify Adaptive Measures Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 6

Key Aspects of Critical Infrastructure Connections Purpose Function Includes public and private services, facilities, and infrastructure Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems Connecting Mobile To the Region and Nation Distribution Centers Multimodal Centers Access to Employment Centers, Hospitals, etc. 7

Operational Considerations Identify the components of critical infrastructure from a modal perspective  Functional Classification  Usage  Operations and Maintenance  Freight Route  Control and Enforcement Centers  Hazardous Materials Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 8

Emergency Preparedness Emergency evacuation Disaster relief Disaster recovery Both severe events and longer- term environmental changes are considered Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 9

Socio-Economic Assessment Serves Regional Centers Availability of Redundant System Provides Community Connection Infrastructure Important to the Functioning of the Region Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 10

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems RAIL 11

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems HIGHWAYS 12

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems PORTS 13

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems AIRPORTS 14

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems TRANSIT 15

Measuring Criticality Matrices for each infrastructure mode Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems PIPELINES 16

Bringing it All Together Applying critical infrastructure tools: 1. Delineate important assets and gather data 2. Estimate future travel and economic activity 3. Solicit stakeholder input and develop a critical infrastructure consensus Defining criticality excludes engineering and environmental considerations Outputs Feed Assessment during Task 2 efforts Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 17

ICF and PB will develop a preliminary list of critical assets  Review MPO Model & other available modal or special purpose models Enhance models as needed to identify critical infrastructure & assess vulnerability Re-run model as needed to test critical links (stress on system if one link down)  Review plans & programs, interview staff  Collect & review asset data & asset management tools in use Score and rank critical assets Send draft critical asset list to climate workgroup to request feedback Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems 18

Collect, review, and summarize climate/weather data to develop datasets of past and future conditions  Observations and model projections temperature precipitation winds runoff waves sea level rise storm surge will examine changes in both means and extremes  Approach will be different than Phase I, e.g. focused explicitly on Mobile use of more advanced models (e.g., ADCIRC; downscaling) provide near-term, mid-term, and end-of-century futures  One illustrative output will be GIS-based maps indicating potential inundation incorporating: global sea level rise, local subsidence, LIDAR-based elevation, and storm surge modeling Task 2: Identify Climate Data 19

Develop qualitative assessments of the sensitivity of critical transportation infrastructure and services in Mobile to climate  Parametric modeling – time series analysis  Analog analysis – assessment of extreme events. Guidance from the CC Work Group is requested. Katrina (other?) Heat wave (2007?) Non-hurricane-related storm (?)  Infrastructure cost analysis For this to be as useful as possible to Mobile we need relevant transportation data for:  Bridges  Highways  Tunnels  Railroads  Marine ports and terminals Task 2: Identify Climate Sensitivity Waterways Airports Bicycle and Pedestrian infrastructure Public Transportation Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines 20

Task 2: Identify Climate Sensitivity Data types, e.g.  Asset value; replacement cost Includes infrastructure and equipment  Maintenance and repair frequency and cost Including in relation to other costs/values  Post-weather-event survey – damage estimate; service loss  Insurance claims  Asset monitoring – e.g. Condition, projected life span, etc.  Travel information – e.g. VMT, transit time, avg speed, accident data, etc.  Value and quantity of goods transported roadway, marine, air, pipeline  Regional/national economic dependence on Mobile transportation transportation through and out of the region We need your help! Names, web sites, documents, etc. 21

Data Needs: Task 1 vs. Task 2 Tasks 1 and 2 will mostly rely on similar data, e.g.:  vehicle miles traveled  freight value Some data will be exclusively for a specific task, e.g.:  Task 1—specific location  Task 2—historical damage to assets Some data will later be useful for Task 3, e.g.:  Engineering specifications of a particular asset 22

Next Steps Task 1:  Develop draft list of critical transportation assets in Mobile  Share list with Climate Work Group and ask for feedback Task 2:  Follow up to pursue access to particular data  Interview key individuals regarding impacts from past weather events  Present preliminary results from sensitivity analysis to receive feedback from the Climate Work Group 23

Rob Kafalenos Federal Highway Administration Office of Natural and Human Environment Sustainable Transport & Climate Change Team Contact US DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse: