Developments at GFDL Leo Donner WGNE, Tokyo, 20 October 2010

CM3: Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Sea Ice Model with Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Decadal Prediction Model Earth-System Models High-Resolution Atmospheric Models Parameterization and Climate Processes Global Model and Parameterization Development

CM3 Integrations Lead, Larry Horowitz CM3 and ESM IPCC AR5 Integrations Underway

CM3: First GFDL Climate Model with Indirect Aerosol Effects CM2.1 (no indirect effect)0.66°C CM3 (includes indirect effect)0.32°C GISS Observations0.52°C CRU Observations0.56°C Globally Averaged Temperature Change ( ) minus ( ) (5-member ensembles for models) (from Donner et al., 2010, J. Climate, submitted) CM3 cloud-aerosol interactions from physically based aerosol activation driven by sub-grid PDFs of vertical velocity in shallow cumulus and stratiform clouds (Ming et al., 2006, JAS; Golaz et al., 2010, JCL, submit).

from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

Taylor diagrams from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

Taylor Diagrams for TOA Radiation Fields from Donner et al. (2010, J. Climate, submitted)

Coupled Data Assimilation is enabling major improvement in ENSO prediction.

3Dvar CDA Anomaly Correlation Coeff norm RMS errors NINO3 SSTA forecast skills Initial Time Jan Dec Jan Dec Initial Time Lead Time Jan Dec Jan (from Tony Rosati, GFDL)

High-Resolution Atmospheric Modeling: Atlantic Hurricanes and Anthropogenic Warming NCEP Analysis or CMIP-3 SST, mean atmospheric state ZETAC 18-km horizontal grid non-hydrostatic limited-area model (no cumulus param) GFDL and GFDN operational hurricane model

Published by AAAS M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, (2010) Fig. 1 Simulated and observed histograms of maximum surface wind speed (m/s) in the Atlantic basin

Published by AAAS M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, (2010) Fig. 3 (Left) Tracks for all storms reaching category 4 or 5 intensity, for the control and the warmed 18- model ensemble conditions, as obtained using the GFDL/NWS hurricane model

Published by AAAS M. A. Bender et al., Science 327, (2010) Fig. 4 Model tracks for all storms that eventually reached category 4 or 5 intensity, for the control (top) and the warm climate conditions provided by the four individual CMIP3 models

A CPT for Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Indirect Effects Supported by

3 - Close 2 - Select 1 - Prognose Building a PDF-based parameterization Advance prognostic moment equationsSelect PDF from functional form to match moments Use PDF to close higher-order moments, buoyancy terms Diagnose cloud fraction, liquid water, droplet number from PDF Adapted from Golaz et al. 2002a,b (JAS)

from Guo et al. (2010, Geosci. Mod. Dev. Disc.)

AM3 Single Column Model using Multi-Variate Probability Density Function with Dynamics, Aerosol Activation, and Double- Moment Microphysics from Guo et al. (2010, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.)

NOAA Climate Modeling and Research System (CMRS) Elements and Schedule of the Subcontract Award to Cray, Inc May

CMRS TF FY 2010 FY 2011FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 CMRS TF CMRS.1 UPG 386 TF CMRS TF CMRS TF 260 TF 980 TF 1.1 PF CMRS.1 Installation CMRS.1 Installation CMRS.2 Installation CMRS.2 Installation Negotiated Options for both FY2015 and FY2016 CMRS.1 Operational NLT 1 Oct 2010 CMRS.2 Operational NLT 1 Oct 2011 NOAA Climate Modeling and Research System (CMRS) Computing Capability Timeline at Oak Ridge National Lab

Summary GFDL, in support of IPCC AR5, has developed a new generation of coupled physical and earth-system models. Integrations for AR5 are mostly completed. Multiple nesting approach has provided framework for considering tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming. Coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation promising for ENSO prediction NSF/NOAA Climate Process Teams active New off-site computing

AM3/LM3: Atmosphere and Land in CM3 23 Interactive chemistry to link emissions to aerosol composition Sub-grid vertical velocity PDFs for convective and stratiform clouds => Supersaturation at cloud scale for aerosol activation on sulfate/black carbon, organic carbon, and sea salt Stratospheric model for chemistry and possible links to troposphere on multi-year time scales (e.g., Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode) More realistic land precipitation for land carbon and nitrogen models Cubed-sphere finite-volume dy-core Dynamic vegetation model with hydrology and land use What is NEW in AM3?

Parameterizations based on sub-grid PDFs of vertical velocity have been implemented in AM3 Deep convection: Donner et al. (2001, J. Climate), Wilcox and Donner (2007, J. Climate) Shallow convection: Bretherton et al. (2004, Mon. Wea. Rev.) implemented by Ming Zhao Stratiform: modfication of Tiedtke (1993, Mon. Wea. Rev.) by Chris Golaz, to include w PDF for activation only