1. 1 William. M. Lapenta and John C. Derber Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Next Generation Operational Global Model Development at NCEP

2. 2 SystemCurrentQ2FY14Q1FY15 GDAS3D En-VAR Dual Res Hybrid 4D En-VAR Dual Res Hybrid 80 Members @ T254 (55 km)80 Members @ T574 SL (35 km) Analysis @ T574 (27 km)Analysis @ T1148 SL(16 km) 64 Vertical Levels 128 Vertical Levels Additional Obs. and Hurricane relocation Cloudy Radiances, Additional Obs., Improved QC and ob. errors GFST574 (27 km) 0 to 7.5-dT1500 SL (13 km) 0 to 10 d T254 (55 km) 7.5 to 16-dT574 SL (35 km) 10 to 16-d 64 Vertical Levels 128 Vertical Levels Semi-Lagrangian – Enhanced physics Higher top, non-hydrostatic, NEMS, Coupled Ocean GEFST254 (55 km) 0 to 8-dT574 SL (35 km) 0 to 16-dT574 (35 km) 0 to 16-d T190 (70 km) 8 to 16-d 42 Vertical Levels64 Vertical Levels128 Vertical Levels Semi-Lagrangian Integrated with EnKF used in analysis Full Stochastic physics GDAS/GFS & GEFS Into 2015

3. Related global system modifications Observation usage upgrade (May-Aug. 2013) –Include METOP-B, NPP-CrIS, MSG-3, GOES sounders, Windsat in data assimilation system Air quality model and Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) – Unified? –Lower horizontal resolution –WAM 600km top High atmosphere physics –Air Quality Inclusion of aerosols and chemistry Surface sources (daily estimate) Volcano sources 3

4. 4 The next-generation Global Forecast System must: Provide skillful guidance for all NOAA operational applications Demonstrate at least the computational efficiency of the current and future GFS Perform with full data assimilation cycling Provide flexibility to meet future demands (nesting, unified) Execute with WAM, coupled atm/ocean/land/ice and aerosols Compatibility with NCEP operational suite Models Currently Under Development in the US Flow Following Icosahedral Model (FIM & NIM) Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume (FV-core) Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMM) Global Spectral Model (GSM) Operational GFS/GEFS in 2020 Next Generation System

5. Summary of major global model foci Model –Much higher vertical and horizontal resolution – Semi- Lagrangian –Improved physics –Inclusion of observed sources –WAM and AQ applications – impact on deterministic run Analysis –Better use of current data –Use of more data –Use of cloud impacted radiances Collaboration with external groups to enhance global prediction system 5