Bruce B. Henning Vice President, Energy Regulatory and Market Analysis The New Energy Reality: Implications for Natural Gas and Oil Pipeline Infrastructure Joint Meeting Gas Policy Advisory Committee Liquids Policy Advisory Committee Washington, D.C. July 11, 2012

2 Disclaimer © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved.2 This presentation presents the views of ICF International. The presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections. ICF has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual market results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation.

Historic Natural Gas Prices  In the last decade, there have been three periods where natural gas prices have spiked.  Each of these periods had a different driver for the increase in prices.  Recently, prices have collapsed. © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved.3

Gas Drilling Response to Price Movements  In response to each of the three previous price spikes, drilling levels increased. The resulting increase in supply moderated prices.  In the most recent period, gas supplies have been increasing significantly even though rig activity is nowhere near the peak levels. © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved.4

The Opportunity! Shale and Unconventional Resources

Evolution of D&C Technologies and Practices ■ Horizontal drilling and steering ■ Multi-stage hydraulic fracturing ■ Fracturing fluids and techniques ■ Seismic and other geophysical analyses of drilling locations ■ Reductions in environmental impacts (multi-well pads, water conservation and recycling, reformulation of additives, RECs, etc.)

US Technically Recoverable Gas and Liquids Resources (ICF estimates)  Conventional and unconventional gas and liquids  32 GIS gas plays; 300,000 square miles evaluated for gas and liquids.  36 square mile unit of analysis  Cost of supply evaluated as function of spacing; discounted cash flow of 6x6 mile grid blocks  Map analysis of tight oil plays; oil and associated gas 7

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North American Gas Supply Curves  The existing North America resource base includes about 1,500 Tcf of gas that is economically recoverable at $5 per MMBtu. – Shale gas accounts for over half of the gas economically recoverable at $5 per MMBtu.  Total cost of developing new resource includes exploration, development and O&M costs (both fixed and variable cost). © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved.9

Impact of Improved Completion Techniques Increase in Haynesville on the Estimated Ultimate Recovery per Well Source: Petrohawk August 2010 © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved. 10

The Big Driver of Gas Production Growth has been Shale Gas Development © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved. 11  Large-scale application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques in the shale plays began in the early 2000s.  Barnett was the first “horizontal multi- frac” shale play, and production has quickly expanded to other shale plays.  Since 2005, shale gas production has been increasing by about 50% per year.

In the Longer Term, Growth in Gas Consumption Will Continue to be Driven by Growth in Gas Use for Electric Generation  Total gas consumption is projected to increase at a rate of 1.4% per year – By 2035, annual gas consumption in the U.S. and Canada is projected to above 35 Tcf.  About 75% of the incremental demand growth is in the power sector. – Power sector gas consumption is projected to almost double by  In aggregate, much less demand growth occurs in the other sectors. © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved. U.S. and Canadian Gas Demand (Tcf) 12

Future Supply Growth Continues to Depend on Unconventional Gas Supplies  Onshore conventional and offshore gas production continues to decline, while unconventional production grows robustly.  Unconventional production comprises two-thirds of the total supply by  Unconventional gas supplies include tight gas, coal bed methane, and shale gas. – Of the three, shale gas is by far the fastest growing type of unconventional gas production.  Total unconventional gas production is expected to increase to 24 Tcf by 2020 and 31 Tcf by – The vast majority of the growth in unconventional production is expected to come from shale gas. © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved. U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Supplies (Average Annual Tcf) 13

Changes in Supply and Demand Will Continue to Change Pipeline Flows In the Longer Term  Substantial increases in flows continue to occur out of the Mid- continent shales and the Rocky Mountain producing basins.  Marcellus gas production growth continues to displace gas flows into the Northeast U.S. (Shifts within the Northeast are not depicted on this interregional flow map).  Flows out of western Canada will continue to remain low due to the weak supply/demand balance in western Canada. © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved. Source: ICF International 14

Miles of New Pipeline Added  Roughly 18,500 miles of new lines are added each year. Most (about 16,500 miles) of the line is gathering line, but that is generally smaller diameter pipe.  An average of almost 2,000 miles of new transmission line are added each year. Roughly 1,400 miles per year are mainline miles, while about 600 miles per year are for lateral connections to power plants, processing plants, and other facilities. 15

Miles of Transmission Mainline (Excluding Laterals) By Region (1000 Miles) Thousand Miles 35.6 Thousand Miles  The Central region which includes the Rocky Mountains gets the largest share of the new transmission pipe, followed closely by the Southwest and Southeast regions. Much of the new mainline capacity is required to make transport of growing shale gas production possible.

17 Tight Oil Production has Grown to 900,000 bpd in early 2012 (Crude + Condensate)

Overall North American Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Balances (bpd) Production 8,346,583 9,238,937 10,621,826 11,382,251 12,024,555 12,741,672 Imports 7,782,546 6,630,456 5,106,754 4,155,596 3,425,162 2,845,953 Refinery Runs 16,129,129 15,869,394 15,728,580 15,537,847 15,449,716 15,587,625

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Major Crude & Condensate Change in Flow 20

ICF Forecasts NGL Production from Shale Wells to Continue to Increase © 2012 ICF International. All rights reserved.21

Oil and NGL Infrastructure Capital Requirements from Oil Pipeline Infrastructure Average Annual Miles of Transmission Mainline (1000s) Cost of Transmission Mainline (Billions 2010$)$19.6$31.4$1.3 NGL Pipeline Infrastructure Average Annual Miles of Transmission Mainline (1000s) Cost of Transmission Mainline (Billions 2010$)$12.3$14.5$0.6 Oil and NGL Pipeline Infrastructure Average Annual Miles of Transmission Mainline (1000s) Cost of Transmission Mainline (Billions 2010$)$31.9$45.9$1.8

Regional Oil Pipeline Expenditures 23

Regional NGL Pipeline Expenditures 24

Cost of Infrastructure Added in the Reference Case (Billions of 2010$ from 2010) Through 2020 Through 2035 Average Annual Expenditures Gas Transmission Mainline$46.2$97.7$3.9 Laterals to/from Power Plants, Gas Storage and Processing Plants $14.0$29.8$1.2 Gathering Line$16.3$41.7$1.7 Gas Pipeline Compression$5.6$9.1$0.3 Gas Storage Fields$3.6$4.8$0.2 Gas Processing Capacity$12.4$22.1$0.9 Oil Transmission$19.6$31.4$1.3 NGL Transmission$12.3$14.5$0.6 Total Capital Expenditure$130.0$251.1$

Summary 26  Expenditures for the incremental infrastructure projected here are significant:  Over $251 billion (Real 2010$) or about $10 billion per year of total capital expenditures are required over the next 25 years.  $3.9 billion, or almost 40 percent of this amount is required for new or expanded gas mainline capacity.  $1.2 billion per year required for laterals.  $1.7 billion per year needed for gathering lines.  $0.9 billion per year required for processing plants.  $1.3 billion per year for new oil pipelines.  $0.6 billion per year for new NGL pipelines.  Pipeline compression and storage fields account for the remainder of the capital requirements.  Roughly one-third of the mainline infrastructure requirement will be for oil and natural gas liquids pipelines.  The future environment for market growth and supply development hinges on a number of key assumptions, many of which are uncertain.

Conclusions 27  The United States and Canada are leading the world in the development of Shale and unconventional tight hydrocarbon resources.  These resources have fundamentally changed the outlook for the supply demand balance in natural gas, NGLs and crude oil production.  The location of these resources is changing the requirements for infrastructure and operation/flow characteristics of the infrastructure.