1. 30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Canada’s Energy Futures 2011: Shifting Trends Preview of Key Results & Comparison with Past Projections
Abha Bhargava
Matthew Hansen
Bryce VanSluys
30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Washington, DC
October 9-12, 2011

2. The NEB
An independent quasi-judicial regulatory tribunal established in 1959
Two primary functions:
Regulatory mandate
Energy information mandate

3. Energy Futures - Background
Flagship product published since 1967
Approximately every 4 years
Last Report in 2007, with reference Case Update in 2009
Presentation focused on comparing trends between 2007, 2009 and 2011 projections
Key Objectives
Provide unbiased, relevant, comprehensive, expert analysis on energy supply, demand and its economic implications and serve as a reference
Provide stimulus for discussion with and amongst stakeholders
Inform policy and business decisions of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future

4. NEB’s Integrated Energy Modeling Framework
Key Inputs: energy prices, oil and gas drilling, supply costs, well productivity and decline rates, electricity unit level characteristics, and other relevant projections
Crude Oil Model
Natural Gas Model
Informetrica Macroeconomic Model
Energy 2020
(Energy Demand, Electricity)
Refinery Balances Model
NGL Model

5. 2011 Energy Futures Methodology: Reference Case and Four Sensitivities
High and Low Price Sensitivities
Fast and Slow
Economic Growth Sensitivities

6. Five sensitivities represent a wide range of possibilities
Real GDP
Oil Price
(WTI, 2010 US$/bbl)
Gas Price
(Henry Hub, 2010 US$/MMbtu)
AAG*
2020
2035
Reference Case
2.3%
$102
$115
1.5%
$6.00
$8.00
2.4%
Fast
3.2%
$105
$121
1.7%
$6.50
$8.90
2.8%
Slow
1.8%
$100
$112
1.4%
$5.60
$6.80
High Price
$142
$155
2.7%
$7.40
$10.70
3.6%
Low Price
$72
$85
0.3%
$5.40
$6.40
*AAG=Average annual growth

7. At a glance: Canadian energy demand, supply and trade, 2010-2035

8. Energy supply at record levels
Unconventional production grows for oil, gas and electricity
Oil Sands becomes the dominant source of production more than tripling by 2035
Tight and shale gas makes up for declining conventional gas production
Electric fuel mix becomes cleaner with changes to coal capacity

9. Canadian energy demand growth slows
Energy demand growth slows moderately compared to history
Residential energy use is nearly flat over the projection
Industrial sector grows the fastest
Changes in demand trends are the result of efficiency and conservation programs, and higher energy prices
Slowing economy and lower population growth are additional factors
Government programs result in biodiesel and ethanol demand increasing faster than other fuels

10. Supply – Demand trends have implications for trade and infrastructure
Supply and demand trends will effect energy trade
Oil – net oil available for export triples
Gas – net gas available for export declines until 2020, and flat for the remainder
Electricity – net electricity available for export nearly doubles
Supply side shifts (volume and location) will have implications for infrastructure

11. Crude Oil: 2011 oil projections surpass past projections
Oil Sands
Conventional
East Coast

12. WCSB Conventional (no tight, Bcf/d)
Natural Gas Production: lower gas prices, lower conventional (non-tight) production, varying tight gas projections, Mackenzie push-backs and varying LNG assumptions
2010
2020
2030
AB Production (Bcf/d)
2007
11.97
8.89
4.95
2009
10.23
7.64
2011
10.45
6.14
5.78
BC Production (Bcf/d)
2.61
2.29
2.23
3.06
5.92
2.99
7.04
9.36
WCSB Conventional (no tight, Bcf/d)
11.03
7.91
4.77
6.73
4.15
6.76
3.21
2.51
WCSB Tight (Bcf/d)
1.90
1.27
0.76
4.88
6.48
4.90
6.86
8.30
BC Shale (Bcf/d)
0.00
0.15
1.34
0.29
1.85
3.36
NWT (Bcf/d)
1.20
0.01
0.02
0.95
LNG Imports (Bcf/d)
0.50
2.05
2.85
0.14
0.66
0.80
0.98

13. Electricity Generation: 2011 projections have similar overall generation, with larger  shares of gas and renewables, and less nuclear and coal

14. Demand growth similar to 2009 Reference Case in aggregate, but sectors tell a different story
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation

15. Recent EIA AEO Projections: Trends are shifting for the U.S. as well

16. Conclusions
Significant shifts have occurred in the last 5 years in the field of energy in North America
While supply of natural gas has seen an upside potential, demand for energy has come down
Tight oil plays is another success story seen across North America, with production increasing at least in the medium term
Electricity sector is seeing a growing share of renewables
For copies of the Energy Futures projections, see one.gc.ca (includes detailed data appendices)