1 The Climate-Land Interaction Project Lab Climate Change Links to Changes in Land Use, Crops, Livestock, Natural Ecosystems and Health University of Nairobi.

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Climate-Land Interaction Project Lab Climate Change Links to Changes in Land Use, Crops, Livestock, Natural Ecosystems and Health University of Nairobi NSF BCS Awards , & , NIH Award 5R21GM , Rockefeller Foundation Grant

2 The CLIP “Loop”

3 CLIP & Eaclipse Team since ~1995 MSU people: Jennifer Olson Gopal Alagarswamy Jeff Andresen David Campbell Robert Glew Dave Lusch Joe Messina John Metzler Nathan Moore Jiaguo Qi Sarah Hession Almaz Naizghi Chuan Qin Institutional Partners: Virginia Tech Ohio University University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Dar es Salaam University College of Education, Tanzania International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya KARI, Kenya Makerere University, Uganda University of Edinburgh, UK Univ of Hamburg, Germany Purdue University NOAA

4 Domain and LUC analyses: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda.

5 The CLIP & EACLIPSE Current Activities 1.Statistical analysis of historical trends in climate and RS data 2.Climate, crop-climate, vegetation-climate and water-climate modeling 3.Ecological & socioeconomic fieldwork 4.Developing educational products in Mich & Tanz 5.Policy workshops, presentations & papers 6.Students (Purdue, VPI, OU, Univ of Dar, MSU)

6 Fieldwork in Kenya and Tanzania Surveys, Meetings, Veg. Plots Socio-economic Ecological

7 Educational Activities New TZ college course, HS & MS Curriculum Michigan Teachers in Tanzania Tanzanian College of Ed Lecturers

8 Climate & Coupled Modeling Regional East Africa domain (18 km), and nested boxes (6 km) Climate: RAMS / CCSM (Hadley, ECHam) with MSU’s HPC, CLIP’s Kili cluster Crop: CERES Maize Grass: CENTURY Surface Water: SWAT Remote sensing: GIMMS, MODIS, Landsat for LUC, phenological analyses (improvement of RAMS, productivity changes, seasonality changes, etc.)

99 Differences in Temperature (RCM) Climate Change LCLUC Combined Effects Effects

10 Differences in Precipitation (RCM) Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic Effects Effects Change (LCLUC) Effects

11 Green=increase in yields Brown=decline in yields Difference in maize yields due to GHG and LUC 2000 to 2050

12 Maize & bean production changes 2000, 2030 to 2050 by country, farming system (mean of combination of 4 scenarios of HadCM3 & ECHam4) Source: Thornton, Jones, Alagarswamy, Andresen & Herrero, 2010, Agricultural Systems.

13 Vegetation and Carbon / Climate Modeling in Century

14 Linked Projects in Africa 1.Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Systems in East Africa. PI Jennifer Olson. Rockefeller Foundation. 2.Linking Local Knowledge and Local Institutions for the Study of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Participatory GIS in Northern Tanzania. PI Smucker (Ohio Univ), Olson (MSU). NSF Award BSC Impacts of climate and land use change on Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) distribution: A Dynamic Ecological Simulation Model of Tsetse transmitted Trypanosomiasis in Kenya. PI Joe Messina. NIH Award 5R21GM Tanzania Partnership Project. PI Jeff Riedinger. Funded by a private donor. 5.(pending) Impacts of climate, land use and management change on Bovine TP: Modeling the Ecological and Socioeconomic Determinants of Tuberculosis Transmission in Humans, Livestock and Wildlife. PI John Kaneene. Submitted to NSF, NIH.

15 Websites

16 Regional climate modeling (Nathan Moore) I used HPC for 100 Amazon simulations (each of which took 8 months to run) 24 China simulations that each took about 6 months. I ran Kili for YEARS to do several multi-decadal runs, each decade taking about a month for a variety of cases. I also used Kili for a huge swath of sensitivity studies to calibrate RAMS for East Africa, and that took something like 8 months to complete, way back in I couldn't run RAMS on NCAR (it compiled, but it always crashed). They know about it; it's a well- known mystery.