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Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Vulnerability to climate change for water resources, agriculture and health in the Indian part of the Ganges basin HIGHNOON:

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Presentation on theme: "Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Vulnerability to climate change for water resources, agriculture and health in the Indian part of the Ganges basin HIGHNOON:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Vulnerability to climate change for water resources, agriculture and health in the Indian part of the Ganges basin HIGHNOON: Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon Eddy Moors and the HighNoon team Climate Change and Adaptive Land & Water Management Alterra - Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands www.ess.wur.nl www.eu-highnoon.org Partners: Alterra Wageningen UR, TERI, IITD, IITK, Uni. Nagoya, Met Office, Max Planck Institute, Uni. Geneva, Uni Salford

2 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon water availability water demand

3 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon water availability water demand Glacier/snow contributionClimate projections

4 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon water availability water demand Glacier/snow contributionClimate projections Water demand & distributionStakeholder participation

5 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 HighNoon Approach Downscaling of socio economic scenarios Informing Set of adaptation options Evaluation of impacts Informing Water demand Water availability Prioritization

6 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Inter-comparison RCM’s focused on Monsoon Participating RCM model runs (0.25 x 0.25 resolution): ECHAM – REMO HADCM3 – REMO ECHAM – PRECIS HADCM3 – PRECIS Contact: Andy Wiltshire via HighNoon web site

7 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Bias correction for precipitation (Kumar et al. 2013. Online on Science of the total environment)

8 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Water resources (Siderius et al. 2013. Science of the total environment Online)

9 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Agriculture: Food security & water demand (Biemans et al., 2013 & Mishra et al., 2013. Science of the total environment, Online) Rice: decrease in production in 2050 varying between 20 to 40% depending on RCM used!

10 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Health: Effect of climate factors on diarrhoea incidences Temperature Relative humidity Number of days per year with P > 65 mm Yearly precipitation Change in climate (2030-2050) - (1980 – 2000) Change in impacts % (Moors et al. 2013. Science of the total environment, Online)

11 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Communication: Common language What is the definition of risk?

12 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013 Summary Communication of uncertainty/variability and robust evidence Bias corrections Ensemble model predictions

13 Kathmandu, 29/8 Aug. 2013  See for info: www.eu-highnoon.orgwww.eu-highnoon.org  Contact: Eddy.Moors@wur.nl Thank you for your attention Overview paper: Moors et al., 2011. Adaptation to changing water resources of the Ganges basin in northern India. Ecology and policy, 14: 758-769 HighNoon special issue “Changing water resources availability in Northern India with respect to Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon patterns: consequences and adaptation” in Science of the Total Environment forthcoming end of 2013

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