1. Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa Nathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy, J Andresen, J Olson B43H-03 University of Dar Es Salaam

2. What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions? GCM versus RCM IPCC, radiative forcings Coupling human and natural systems Fundamental Research Question:

3. Focused Questions/Motivation Question 1: What are likely Climate Change and Land Cover Change Impacts on Future East African Agriculture? Question 2: Is Land Cover/Land Use Change as important as Greenhouse Gas Concentrations at the Regional Scale?

4. Conceptual Framework of the Modeling System Spatial scales / temporal scales / uncertainty Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Climate Effects on Agriculture Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Surface Characteristics Many pathways

5. Upper Embu coffee & maize farms --- slopes of Mt. Kenya

6. Major Data Sources and Models Land Use: Historical LUC studies, Africover. Model: Land Transformation Model (LTM) Land Cover: GLC 2000, MODIS fc & LAI (seasonal) Climate: CCSM 3.0 boundary conditions, RAMS 4.4, Worldclim station data, ECHAM5, HadCM3 NPP Models: CERES/Maize, LPJ

7. What changes do we expect in agricultural land cover? Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected) Lowered roughness, higher moisture

8. 4 experiments for exploring climate and landscape effects Land CoverGlobal ClimateComparison: 1: CurrentCurrentBaseline 2: Current2050 decadeFuture climate effects only 3: 2050 decadeCurrentFuture land cover effects only 4: 2050 decade2050 decadeSynergistic effects

9. Results from the 4 experiments Focus on Differences: A.Future Climate Effects (2-1) B. Land Cover/Land Use Effects (3-1) C. Synergistic Effects (4-1)

10. Differences in Precipitation Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic Effects Effects Change (LCLUC) Effects

11. Differences in Temperature Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects Effects

12. Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects Effects (7.8 W/m 2 ) (-2.8 W/m 2 ) (8.6 W/m 2 ) Differences in Latent Heat Flux

13. Wind pattern changes due to LCLUC

14. Projected  in Maize Yield Climate and Landscape Forcings Q1: Impacts on African Agriculture Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Climate Effects on Agriculture Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Surface Characteristics

15. Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change

16. Land Use and Climate may have strong impacts on East African Agriculture, and thus on humans (feedbacks) Land Cover/Land Use may have impacts on the same scale as elevated Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, but highly localized effects Tharaka, Kenya Summary

18. Coupling Human Systems to Land Use/Land Cover Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Climate Effects on Crops, Disease, Ecosystems, etc Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Surface Characteristics

19. Conclusion Potential problems related to agricultural futures in Africa Relative roles of greenhouses gases versus Land Cover/Land Use Change on climate Interdisciplinary issues of societal import; continuing savannas research

20. Surface Characteristics influencing Climate Important to include regional and local characteristics Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Climate Effects on Crops, Disease, Ecosystems, etc Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Surface Characteristics

21. Projected  in Maize Yield Climate Forcings Only

22. Global Climate inputs at the boundaries Landscape Inputs An Illustration of Climate and Land Cover Drivers The Climate Model Domain

23. Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change: T max

24. Projected  in Maize Yield: Landscape Forcings Only

25. Differences in Sensible Heat Flux

26. Conceptual framework: A walk around “The Loop” Global Climate: From CCSM model CLIMATE DYNAMICS RAMS simulations CERES-MAIZE (Crop model) Land Transformation Model (LTM) Land cover input to RAMS Land cover (albedo, FC, LAI) Tmin, Tmax, solar, precip