WWRP 1 THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011 Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker, WWRP/WG-MWFR Slides supplied by Jeanette Onvlee, Chair (MWFR)

WWRP 2 Membership (DA Expertise) Jeanette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands, Chair) Dale Barker (Met Office, UK) Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI, Japan) Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ. Hohenheim, Germany) Stephane Belair (Environment Canada) Jimy Dudhia (NCAR, USA) Mattias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck, Austria) Yu Hui (CMA, China) New for 2011: Peter Steinle (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy) THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 3 Activities Focus on 0.5-5km grid size models, extratropics Pushing mesoscale weather research questions in several fora Help set up / involvement in RDPs/FDPs (COPS, B08RDP, Sochi?) Dedicated workshops on specific topics (e.g. Nowcasting10/2011). Liaisons with other WMO WG (e.g. Thorpex/TIGGE-LAM, WWRP/NWC, JWGV, WGNE, DAOS? …) Last year activities on: Organize grey zone experimentation (WGNE context) Define/promote worldwide standards for mesoscale verification, and routine model quality assessment and exchange (together with JWGV) Make inventory of available mesoscale training material, gaps therein Next (5th) meeting September 2011, Berlin. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 4 Past, present and possible future RDPs and FDPs MAP-DPHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region COPS: Convective Orographic Precipitation Study. Intense observation campaign in Rhine Valley area, subsequent process and predictability studies, and assimilation experiments Beijing 2008 RDP: development, improvement, intercomparison and demonstration of LAM EPS systems. Potential future WMO RDP/FDP: Sochi 2014?: RDP/FDP on high-resolution nowcasting and NWP support of Sochi Winter Olympic Games activities (see later). HYMEX? THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 5 THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP B08FDP support 3hour Rapid Update Cycle System THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP Participan ts ModelICInitial Perturbation LBCLateral Perturbation Physical Perturbation NCEPWRF-ARW (5) WRF-NMM (5) GEFS-Downscaled (T284L60, 5) (L60M15) NCEP 3DVAR BreedingNCEP Global EPS Multi-model MRI/JMANHM (L40M11) Meso 4DVAR (20kmL40) Targeted Global SV (T42L40) JMA Global Forecast (TL959L60) Forecast of Global model initiated by targeted SV non ECGEM (L28M20) MSC Global EnKF MSC Global EPS Physical tendency perturbation with Markov chain, surface perturbation ZAMG & Meteo-Fr. ALADIN (L37M17) ECMWF Global 4DVAR Blending ECMWF SV with ALADIN Bred Mode ECMWF Global Forecast ECMWF EPS forecast Multi-physics NMC /CMA WRF-ARW (L31M15) WRF- 3DVAR BreedingCMA Global EPS Multi-physics CAMS /CMA GRAPES (L31M9) GRAPES- 3DVAR BreedingCMA Global EPS Multi-physics Technique characteristics for all participants in 2008 THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP Accumulated Precipitation ( 04pm Aug.806am Aug. 9) National Stadium Example 1: Successful service for opening ceremony (National Stadium)

WWRP 30% During the Opening Ceremony, 5 RDP participants forecast a probability of less than 30% for 1mm,and 10mm<=10% CAMSNMCJMA ZAMG CanadaNCEP Courtesy Yihong Duan, CMA

WWRP FROST-2014: FORECAST and RESEARCH in the OLYMPIC SOCHI TESTBED To improve, develop, demonstrate, and exploit: To improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in winter complex terrain: To demonstrate/deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers in order to verify and quantify societal benefits of nowcasts and forecasts Enhanced nowcasting observations in winter complex terrain; mesoscale (250m-2km) deterministic forecasts of meteorological conditions in complex terrain environment; regional EPS forecast products (>7km res); nowcasts of high impact weather phenomena in complex terrain. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 11 Thoughts on DAOS/MWFR Links WWRP/MWFR (convective-scale DA, =14day). MWFR closest links so far with other WWRP groups: Nowcasting, Verification, etc. Existing/potential MWFR/DAOS Interactions: Shared expertise in DA techniques (tendency for global first, high-res after!) e.g. high-res. obs. sensitivities, but…. Should MWFR provide guidance on high-res. DA for future global DA (e.g. cloud/precip DA)? Provision of optimal (latest?) LBCs for MWFR RDP/FDPs. Added value of high-res. DA vs global/regional NWP/DA. Treatment of large-scales within high-resolution DA. Observation selection for low/high-res DA. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 12 Outline Membership Scientific issues Activities Past, present and planned RDP / FDP actions Workshops and capacity building activities Liaisons with other groups Thoughts On MWFR/DAOS Links THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, June 2011

WWRP 13 Workshop Use of mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting Nowcasting tools: Purely observation-based (e.g. radar extrapolation) NWP used indirectly as input in dedicated nowcasting applications Increasing push for more direct use of high-resolution NWP in some form of RUC mode. But what are its limitations? Joint WGNR-WG-MWFR Workshop: Aims: Strengthen interaction between NWP and NWC communities Confront present and future prospects of NWP for NWC with challenges of NWC, come up with recommendations on way forward (how to optimize NWP in support of NWC, and how/when to best use it (or not)) ~30 participants (invitation only) October 2011, Boulder.

WWRP 14 WGNE meeting, Tokyo, October 2010 COPS RDP Summer 2007: massive observation campaign Subsequent analysis of IOP results: Process studies on the convective life cycle, focussing on selected IOP cases Research on new observation types: validation, intercomparison and joint interpretation, representativity studies, sensor synergy Model validation studies (clouds, microphysics) Tests of advanced data assimilation systems, development of observation operators, observation impact studies Verification techniques and impact assessment of convective-permitting models Joint COPS/D-PHASE Database collected, now generally available through DKRZ/Hamburg COPS project complete in 2011 with production of QJRMS Special Issue.

WWRP D-PHASE Achievements Unprecedented data set model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR) Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set

WWRP D-PHASE Achievements Participation of users 45 end users institutions (civil protection...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs Scientific results advances in ensemble hydrological modelling radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, …. 22 peer reviewed papers 72 reports and ext. abs. 165 presentations BAMS Paper, Sept 2009

WWRP 17 WGNE meeting, Tokyo, October 2010 Scientific issues Mesoscale data assimilation : What analysis setup is most appropriate for mesoscale/nowcasting? How best to analyze moist processes, with minimal spinup? How to add small scale information while retaining the strengths of the larger scale nesting analysis? What is best way to use radar, cloud, hydrometeor information? Convection and complex topography: Grey zone issues (what to do between ~5-10km resolution – WGNE link) How to best represent steep orography? Surface modelling Initiation and modelling of new, more realistic components (e.g. snow, urban) High-quality high-resolution physiographic data Predictability and probabilistic forecasting What influences predictability on convection-permitting scales, and how to describe it? Towards convection-permitting ensembles: practical methods, cross- fertilization of ensemble and DA techniques? Underlying all: suitable verification and validation methods, coupled models