Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC DEVELOPMENTS ON CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS AND RELATED NEEDS UNDER THE UNFCCC GCOS Steering Committee, 18th session Geneva, 27 Sept – 1 October 2010 Rocio Lichte, Programme Officer UNFCCC secretariat, Adaptation, Technology and Science

Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Outline Research and systematic observation 2. Adaptation: Nairobi work programme 3. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries 4. Discussions under the AWG-LCA related to data & observations – way to Cancun 5. Needs under UNFCCC – possible role of GCOS

Research and systematic observation Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Research and systematic observation COP 15: Decison on systematic climate observations (9/CP.15) appreciation for report on progress with the GCOS implementation plan recognizes significant progress in improving the observing systems for climate, but also the limitations re continuity, gaps and needs Parties & UN agencies and organizations to work towards addressing the priorities and gaps identified in progress report Invites the GCOS to update the GCOS implementation plan taking into account emerging needs in climate observations (adaptation) activities GTOS: encouraged to implement framework for terrestrial observations as UN & ISO joint mechanism between relevant UN agencies & ISO CEOS: encouraged to continue coordinating & supporting implementation of the satellite component of the GCOS

Research and systematic observation Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Research and systematic observation SBSTA 32: Research Dialogue who: Parties and regional and international research programmes and organizations active in climate change research, and IPCC what: developments in research activities relevant to the Convention, including emerging scientific findings, research needs & priories by Parties Next: further enhance interaction between the science and policy communities/ strengthen research dialogue engage observation programmes in this dialogue progress developing the GFCS welcomed: WMO invited to report on progress under the research dialogue Next activities related to research dialogue: SBSTA 34 (June 2011)

Research and systematic observation Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Research and systematic observation SBSTA 33 (Cancun, 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2010) Issues for consideration relevant to global observations: Updated Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in support of the UNFCCC (from GCOS), FCCC/SBSTA/2010/MISC.9; Progress with climate-related terrestrial observations and related activities (e.g. terrestrial ECVs) (from GTOS), FCCC/SBSTA/2010/MISC.10; Progress in the coordinated response by space agencies involved in global observations to GCOS and UNFCCC needs (from CEOS), FCCC/SBSTA/2010/MISC.11. Feedback from Parties, follow-up actions (conclusions by SBSTA) → time frame for seeing new elements implemented and report on advances?

Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change Major recent activities: Technical workshops on collaboration among regional centres & networks doing work relevant to climate change potential costs and benefits of adaptation options Main outcomes re climate data & observations, modelling, scenarios & downscaling: Institutional capacity for analysis & interpretation of data and forecasting Local data (social, economic, climate) to validate global models & climate data Closer collaboration between providers & users of data and information Linking regional centres & networks with ongoing climate service networks and initiatives Increased cooperation in knowledge management at the regional level, e.g. through regional centres, develop regional cooperation mechanisms Next: SBSTA 33 (Cancun): review of effectiveness of the NWP NWP Focal point forum

REDUCING EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION & FOREST DEGRADATION Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC REDUCING EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION & FOREST DEGRADATION Methodological guidance for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries.” (4/CP.15) For estimating forest-related GHG emissions & removals, forest carbon stocks and forest area changes, use: most recent IPCC guidance and guidelines combination of remote sensing and ground-based forest carbon inventory approaches Establish national forest monitoring systems: robust, transparent, according to national circumstances (consistency, reduction of uncertainties, results suitable for review) forest reference emission levels & forest reference levels: transparently taking into account historic data and adjusted for national circumstances Capacity building: Encouragement to strengthen capacities of developing countries to collect and access, analyse and interpret data, for developing estimates

REDD+ under the AWG-LCA Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC REDD+ under the AWG-LCA (REDD+ refers to “Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest C stocks in developing countries”) On-going discussions/considerations on REDD+ addresses: Scope of activities, guiding principles and safeguards; Phased-approach for implementation Means of implementation, Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of actions (e.g. establishing reference emission levels, national monitoring systems, use of IPCC guidelines) BUT: A number of key issues still remain to be agreed, e.g. Scope and safeguards The link between MRV of actions and support Elements required for implementation, e.g. national forest reference emission level, national forest monitoring system (if and when develop details of modalities); Disclaimer: Negotiations are in process. The present slides are based on the current versions of the relevant draft texts, only presenting information on issues under discussion.

Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Developments under the Bali Action Plan on long-term cooperative action on climate change (AWG-LCA discussions) – elements relevant to observations Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord (excerpt) Increase in global av. Temp: below 2 degrees C assessment of this goal by 2015 taking into account science (including consideration of strengthening long-term goal, 1.5C) Latest negotiating text (AWG-LCA): some views from Parties on matters relevant to climate information and systematic observation Encourage to support the further development & implementation of the GFCS review of the long-term goal: take into account best available science, observed impacts; Enhancing adaptation action under the proposed Adaptation Framework [for Implementation] Strengthening data, information & knowledge systems, Improving climate-related research & systematic observation for climate data collection, archiving, analysis and modeling for improved climate-related data and information to decision-makers at national and regional levels (incl capacity building). Strengthening existing institutional arrangements and expertise to support the implementation of the proposed Adaptation Framework (incl.components for enhanced systematic observation and information management activities; consider need for new institutional arrangements Disclaimer: Negotiations are in process. The present slides are based on the current versions of the relevant draft texts, only presenting information on issues under discussion.

Work under the AWG-LCA: towards Cancun Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Work under the AWG-LCA: towards Cancun AWG-LCA: emerging architecture Finance and technology Public finance Private finance Adaptation Enabling activities Adaptation action Risk sharing Mitigation Developing country actions Developed countries commitments Monitoring, reporting and verification Disclaimer: Negotiations are in process. The present slides are based on the current versions of the relevant draft texts, only presenting information on issues under discussion.

Major needs called for under UNFCCC requiring observational basis Trend of international discussions on the UNFCCC Needs identified under UNFCCC that can benefit from enhanced GCOS activities: Best available science → → → review by 2015 Reduction of uncertainty in scientific information Improved models, projections, forecasting More robust IPCC assessments (IPCC TGICA ) Products and services (e.g. GFCS) readily available to users & decision-makers Analysis and interpretation of data & observations Stronger regional focus: regional and local data & observations (adaptation) Underlying requirement: high-quality observations of climate (incl ECVs in all domains) on a systematic and continuous basis Disclaimer: Negotiations are in process. The present slides are based on the current versions of the relevant draft texts, presenting only information on issues under discussion.