Methods and Tools to Integrate Biodiversity into Land Use Planning NatureServe has received support from NASA to advance our decision support tools for integrating biodiversity into land use planning. I want to briefly report on our progress. Pat Comer Chief Terrestrial Ecologist

Greater Yellowstone Area Local Partner: Bridger-Teton National Forest Objective: Support forest plan revision and implementation NatureServe Vista is an ArcMap extension designed to facilitate integration of biodiversity information into land use planning. With support from NASA, we are currently working with the Bridger-Teton NF to revise the tool so that it better meets the needs of forest planning. First I’ll discuss some conceptual approaches to conservation planning, some of which are supported by Vista, then dive into specific Vista functions.

Sustainability Vision Economic Ecological Social Clean Water Biodiversity Clean Air Landscape Diversity Community Diversity Desirable Species At-Risk Species This recent Hagan and Whitman paper describes an increasingly common formulation being used in conservation planning, where an increasingly precise set of measurable indicators is defined to help get a handle on the more nebulous concept of ‘sustainability.’ They also makes the good point of categorizing measurable indicators into those that tell us something about ‘condition’ ‘trend’ (they actually used the term ‘pressure’) and ‘policy response’ - the latter referring to the relative compatibility of e.g., land use allowed on a piece of land given the habitat requirements for the at-risk species present. These indicators really form the currency for planning. These are what we use to evaluate where we are, develop strategies for where we need to go, implement our decisions, and measure our progress. Indicators Condition Trend Policy Response Adapted from Hagan & Whitman (2006) Biodiversity Indicators for Sustainable Forestry. Journal of Forestry, June 2006

Criteria and Indicators for Sustainability B-T NF Recreational Opportunities (road access and roadless areas) Scenic Integrity Educational Opportunities Indicators (11) Forest Productivity Carbon Sequestration Livestock Grazing Energy Production Commercial Recreation Water Development Social Sustainability Economic Sustainability Ecological Sustainability The B-T has taken a criteria and indicators approach to provide focus to forest planning. Many indicators may be addressed through remotely sensed data. In this instance, most NASA-originated data come from Landsat and/or MODIS, but there are other sources. Indicators (100+) Ecosystem Diversity Species Diversity Invasive Species Fuel Load, Pests, Disease Watershed Integrity (stream channel function, soil productivity, water quality, etc.)

Common Steps in Planning WHAT IS THE PLANNING AREA? WHICH INDICATORS REQUIRE CONSIDERATION? WHERE ARE THEY? WHAT ARE REFERENCE CONDITIONS? WHAT ARE CURRENT CONDITIONS? WHAT ARE THE TRENDS AMONG THOSE CONDITIONS? WHAT ARE DESIRED CONDITIONS? There are roughly 10 common steps – or questions that must be answered - for biodiversity conservation planning, some addressed at greater or lesser degrees of rigor…depending on the project I’ll discuss these in three basic phases. 1) Clarifying what’s at stake; 2) What are the conditions we need to address, and; 3) identifying the strategies we’ll pursue. WHAT STRATEGIES WILL MOVE US TOWARD DESIRED CONDITIONS? WHAT ARE EXPECTED OUTCOMES FROM IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIES? HOW WILL WE MONITOR AND EVALUATE OUR IMPLEMENTATION?

Conservation Elements Focus for Ecological Sustainability Species Diversity Species of Concern ESA proposed, candidates, petitioned G1-G3 (T1-T3) NatureServe status May include distinct populations Species of Interest S1-S2 NatureServe status Other T/E not captured above UAFWS birds of concern Regional/local concern Other public interest requiring plan components Ecosystem Diversity Representative ecosystem types Vegetation types and structural stages Over the years, many have used similar criteria in an attempt to adequately represent the totality of biodiversity on given landscape. These Forest Service criteria are one example. His combination of representative ecosystem composition and structure, matched with a subset of at-risk species, provides a practical focus. Once these units are defined for a given area, the major task is compiling the right spatial information to integrate their needs into planning.

Nested Dominance Types Ecological System Type Ecological System and Structural Stage Nested Dominance Types Ecological System Type Ecological classification combines with remotely sensed classifications of vegetation to depict a range of ecological composition and structural variables of great utility to conservation planners. Ecological systems are a described ecological unit that integrates repeating patterns of vegetation composition, structure, and environmental settings of great utility to land managers. Individual vegetation cover types are discerned and mapped compositional subsets. Structural variants of ecological system types assist in management of wildlife habitat and fuels while being feasible for mapping on recurring intervals; for ready application to change detection. Building Element Information

Building Element Information Spatial representation of many species populations and habitats come in many from, some derived from remotely sensed data and others from field observations. Building Element Information

Modeling Landscape Condition Combines land use, road type, built infrastructure, etc. Model weights effects, adds distance effect Specified to element-groups We increasingly use spatial models to capture and depict some of our assumptions about impacts of land uses on biodiversity. This example factors in road traffic volumes and land uses of varying intensity to create a relative surface of anticipated degrading effects (from blue to orange) on wildlife in the Greater Yellowstone region. Vista 2.0 will be delivered with a stand-alone geo-processing tools to facilitate development of these models, which are then imported into Vista to depict relative quality of habitat across the project area. Greater Yellowstone Area

Relative Compatibility with Land Uses We can often state assumptions about the relative compatibility of land uses with the values we wish to conserve. Vista facilitates documentation of these assumptions; then one can translate those assumptions into maps of potential conflicts. Version 2 will enable a range of uses to be stated and treated for any given pixel, and will expand flexibility in the way relative compatibilities are stated (e.g., negative, neutral, positive).

Land Use Scenarios 1) Land Use Type 2) Special Designations Scenarios are any combination of permitted or desired land use depicted spatially. Vista easing import of many scenarios, allowing for rapid evaluation of conditions and identifying conflict. It also facilitates analysis of scenarios reflecting distinct points in time, to better address concerns over cumulative effects of land use over time. 3) Regulation 4) Zoning/ Policy Type

Scenario Evaluation Land Use Conflict Map Red areas indicate elements with incompatible land use intent. Darker shades indicate richness of elements in conflict

Vista Modules & Interoperability Economic Analysis & Reporting Conservation Scenario Optimization Tools: MARXAN, SPOT Visualization Tools (e.g., Community Viz) Vista Framework Decision Support System Predictive Range Mapping; e.g., MAXEnt, GARP Agency Regulatory Monitoring Tools We view Vista as one tool on the toolbox. It could form a ‘framework’ tool in some instances where other tools meet specific needs for planners, and Vista can interoperate efficiently. I will just touch on a couple of these examples. E.g. VDDT is a nonspatial simulation modeling tool allowing ecologists to state assumption about succession and disturbance dynamics for a given forest type, input current acreages of composition/structure classes, then run their simulation through time to evaluate likely future conditions. This then informs evaluation of current conditions and statements of desired future conditions. Land-use System Tools: Transportation Sylviculture Agriculture Ecological Dynamic Simulation Tools: e.g., Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT) Knowledge Engine Tools: EMDS

Stating Desired Conditions Establish measurable goals for representation Users may define multiple, potentially competing goal sets representing different values, or uncertainty A single land-use scenario can be evaluated against multiple goal sets Goals based on % of total area, % of occurrences, absolute amount of habitat, or absolute # of occurrences In many instances, we have identified issues in need of change and need to state what is desired. Vista provides flexibility in the ways in which statements of desired conditions may be captured, explored, and reported on for any given land use scenario.

Analysis at Multiple Spatial Scales Regional-scale (e.g., Representation throughout the Greater Yellowstone area) National Forest Plan (e.g., Relative emphasis within the Bridger-Teton N.F.) Project Implementation (e.g., multiple occurrences summarized by HUC 6 units of the Greys River watershed) Land use/management planning takes place at multiple scales; from regional to localized patches. Methods, information, and tools need to facilitate the transfer of information across each of these scales. Vista can now organize and manage projects at multiple spatial scales simultaneously; i.e., one regional project could be subset for analyses of one national park/forest, and further subset management units without needing to recreate new project files. Individual Occurrence patch (e.g., one element of conservation concern/interest)

Generating Regional Allocation Scenarios using Spatial Optimization Spatial optimization tools have been used extensively over the past decade to explore allocation decisions. These freeware facilitate exploration and land use scenario generation where many parameters are at stake. Here, includes and example of biodiversity data, integrated with land use information to create alternative conservation management scenarios. Patterns among these ‘efficient’ regional solutions feed into strategy development using knowledge of ownership, management issues, and potential obstacles or threats. Generating Regional Allocation Scenarios using Spatial Optimization

Site Explorer Site Explorer provides flexibility to review, report, and revise proposals for management regimes on a parcel level, serving as a management tool for implementation and monitoring of land uses and management regimes over tiime.

Data & Expert Knowledge Inputs Intermediate Processes & Products Outputs Landscape Condition (geoproc tool) Element Distribution & Confidence Data Current Land use, infrastructure, etc Join and Rasterize Element Conservation Layer Aggregation and Weighting Aggregated Conservation Value Scenario Evaluation Element Compatibility To Land Use/Activity Report Conflict Intensity Indices Desired Conditions for Elements Vista 2.0 Functions Alternative Land Use/ Activity Scenario New features for Vista 2.0 Multi-scale project management Automated input capabilities Element Distribution pre-processing Tools for modeling landscape condition Robust ways to specify Desired Conditions Multiple uses per land unit (for compatibility/conflict mapping) Reporting better suited to forest planning Scenario Generation (e.g., MARXAN) Scenario Modification (Site Explorer) Site Land Use/Mgmt Specification

What Are We Aiming For? Common Planning Framework Common Library of Spatial Data and Ecological Knowledge So what are we aiming for? 1) I think that we could identify a more-or-less universal planning framework to better integrate values across multiple sectors of society 2) This will enable us to better share resources to build a common library of information (most of it costly to collect) that is essential to an ecosystem approach to all forms of land/water use planning and management. 3) And there appears to be an emerging set of standard tools that could then apply this critical information to make good decisions. Functional Inter-operating Decision Support Tools