Component 5: From climate change projections to assessing response options CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP Alex Smajgl December 2012

Exploring Futures in Vietnam Delta Dang Nhan, John Ward, Alex Smajgl Downscaled projection key input for assessing adaptation options 2 | Identify & assess adaptation options Downscaled climate projection Sea-level rise projection Other hydrological data Social household data Economic data GIS data Methods & skills

1.Generate data Climate projections, sealevel rise projections, GIS data, household data, economic data 2.Identify Macro-level and micro level adaptation options & specify assessment criteria 3.Develop assessment tool(s) 4.Analyse adaptation options and prioritise 5.Implement best adaptation options Component 5, Alex Smajgl Developing adaptive capacity 3 |

Component 5, Alex Smajgl Participatory model design 4 | …the impact of… Changes in sea-level, rainfall, temperature, extreme events Weather monitoring and early warning system Dykes/sluice gates, water treatment and urban drainage Resettlements Crop and land use changes, deforestation Road upgrades Building code changes International water sharing and dam operation agreements Awareness raising and new crop research …on… Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, Risk Agricultural Production Hydrology Household Economics, wellbeing and poverty Population growth Food security, Nutrition Biodiversity, Environment, endangered species Gender equality Migration Public health, diseases, Livelihoods (incl. job changes) Freshwater access and salinity intrusion

1.CB Seminar: Why integrated assessment and what does it mean? 2.MD Workshops: What is actually required? 3.MD discussions: What methodologies are available and what should we use? 4.CB Seminar: Principles in model design & agent-based modelling 5.CB Seminar: Hands-on model design: System diagrams, rules and pseudo code 6.CB Seminar: Model analysis: Time series, temporal and spatial patterns, Stochasticity Component 5, Alex Smajgl Model design and Capacity building 5 |

1.Determine system boundaries What should be IN the model and what should stay OUT? 2.Specify your system & system variables unambiguously This includes resolution/aggregation 3.Identify possible states (=Attributes) for each variable (=agent/entity) 4.Develop ‘response function’ for changing states (=rules) 4 th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl 4 Steps of Model Design 6 |

4 th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl Defining rules 1.Logical statements a.Attribute IF cond1 THEN state1 ELSE state2 b.“Look-up tables” 2.Formal mathematical functions a.(Discontinuous) Step functions b.Continuous (non-)linear equations Fish catch of HH TimeInput = 1 hr TimeInput = 4 hrs Fish population < ε HHCatchKg = 10 HHCatchKg = 30kg Fish population > ε HHCatchKg = 40kg HHCatchKg = 80kg

IF householdLivelihood01 = rice AND NOT (householdLivelihood02 OR householdLivelihood03 ) = (aquaculture OR vegetables) IF time.month = (February) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[5800; 6200]*NORMAL[5000;6800]/4 IF time.month = (July OR November) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[3800; 4200]*NORMAL[5000;6800]/4 IF householdLivelihood01 = rice AND (householdLivelihood02 OR householdLivelihood03 ) = (aquaculture OR vegetables) IF time.month = (November) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[5500; 6500] *NORMAL[5000;6800]/4 ENDIF 4 th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl Rule for Crop Yield: Rice 8 |

EMRF model: Devastating floods (End of July) Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 9 Scenario Baseline 2-3% migrate out0 migrants

EMRF model: Devastating floods (End of Sept) Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 10 Scenario Baseline 2-3% migrate out0 migrants

4 th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl Model use 2: Monte Carlo-based analysis 11 |

What’s the assessment for? What should be achieved? Simple decision support: Prediction Learning Conflict resolution 4 th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl Process is key… and often forgotten 12 |

Exploring Futures in Vietnam Delta Dang Nhan, John Ward, Alex Smajgl Challenge-and-Reconstruct Learning 13 |

1.Generate data Climate projections, sealevel rise projections, GIS data, household data, economic data 2.Identify Macro-level and micro level adaptation options & specify assessment criteria 3.Develop assessment tool(s) 4.Analyse adaptation options and prioritise 5.Implement best adaptation options Component 5, Alex Smajgl Developing adaptive capacity 14 | Proposal development completed

CSIRO Ecosystems Science Dr Alex Smajgl t CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP Thank you