Qualar - from near to real-time air pollution data for Portugal to Ozone and PM10 forecast Cláudia Martins, Francisco Ferreira, Ana Teresa Perez, and Jorge Neto Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen (EEA)

QUALAR information system Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Process of data transmission Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen Air Quality Monitoring Stations QUALAR On-line Data Base CCDRs – Commission of Coordination and Regional Development ATMIS Application – collecting the data from AQMS and sending to the data base server Validation during weekdays Environment Institute

Qualar - Stations Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Qualar - Measurements Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Qualar - Air Quality Index Qualar - Air Quality Index Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen Very Good Good Medium Weak Bad The daily index for Portugal is calculated for each zone (an agglomeration is also a zone) and is based on the average for each pollutant between all equipments in the zone. The index is determined by the worst pollutant concentration measured in one or more monitoring stations

Qualar – Air Quality Index Qualar – Air Quality Index Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen The existence of an index for a zone depends on the following conditions: 1. There must be at least one equipment for NO 2, SO 2, O 3 e PM 10. Although it is used on the index calculation the existence of CO equipment is not mandatory; 2. The efficiency of the measurements must be equal or greater then 75% - Provisory Index available after 18h00, based on the results measured between 00h00 and 15h00; - Definitive Index From the previous day available at the same time.

Qualar – Exceedances Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Air quality forecast for the area of Lisbon, Portugal Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Methodology - Methodologies already used (Casmassi, 1987; EPA, 2003; and others) - Two years meteorological and air quality database ( ) - Subjective analysis of surface and 500mb synoptic situations - Models construction: - Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis - multiple linear regression (MR) analysis - Testing and validating the obtained models 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe

Data used - Air quality data from the several stations of the case study area (O 3, PM 10, CO, NO 2 and SO 2 ) - Surface meteorological data – Maximum temperature and average relative humidity from various cities, and pressure difference between Lisbon and other cities - Altitude meteorological data for Lisbon - geopotencial height, temperature and relative humidity at 1200UTC for several levels - Subjective analysis of synoptic situations (surface and 500 mb) at 1200UTC - Day of week, flag type of day, and solar duration day Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Synoptic situations Frontal systems 1– Frontal systems Low pressure systems 2 – Deepening low pressure (instability) 3 – low pressure influence High pressure systems 4 – surface calm 5 – N/NW circulation 6 – High pressure and thermal through from the north of Africa 7 – NE/E circulation Surface 1 – Cut off low 2 – Low pressure trough 3 – Approaching trough or ridge breakdown 4 – Building high pressure ridge or zonal flow 5 – High pressure ridge 500mb Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

CART analysis Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Multiple regression models PM 10 PM10_1<47.6PM10_1>=47.6 PM10_1<28.6 PM10_1>=2 8.6 HR850>=5 9 HR850<5 9 r r2r2r2r Std.error N O3O3O3O3O3_1<91.5O3_1>=91.5DD<10.76DD>=10.76T734<30.2T734>=30.2 r r2r2r2r Std.error N Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Modeling Test Summer 2003 Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Results The model results achieved are very satisfactory (the correlation is always higher than 0.973) The model application results in other periods (year 2003) shows inferior correlations but still highly significant; A does not exist for PM 10 ; therefore the final results strong relation between O 3 and some meteorological parameters exists (temperature). Such a strong relationship with a variable are worse; Air quality index is also well predicted, since the two pollutants always determine the final result.

Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe 7-8 April 2005 Copenhagen

Availability The model uses measurements from air quality and meteorology taken in the last 24 hours between 1500 GMT (the day before) and 1500 GMT (actual day); Predicted values for next day come out validated at 1700 GMT; Model application results to an out-of-trend year (2003) shows inferior correlations but still highly significant; Application is being extended first to Greater Porto Metropolitan Area agglomerations, and then to the all country; At the same time, a forecast physico-chemical mathematical model is being developed for the all country (in articulation with Universidade de Aveiro), and the integration of results from both is foreseen.