CERIS-CNR Second International Seville Seminar on Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 28th- 29th September 2006 Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: some results from a survey in Europe Monica Cariola National Research Council of Italy Ceris CNR Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth

CERIS-CNR This work analyses the main results of one of the basic tasks on FTA activities of the European project iMERA (implementing the Metrology European Research Area) started in 2005, a 3-year project funded by the European Commission within the ERA- NET scheme INTRODUCTION Main purpose of iMERA to enable National Governments to increase the National and European impact of their research investments in Metrology

CERIS-CNR Within the iMERA Project A specific task is aimed to provide an evaluation of : the processes of metrology and technology foresight in Europe the processes of metrology and technology foresight in Europe their impact on the national programmes for long term planning of metrological activities their impact on the national programmes for long term planning of metrological activities

CERIS-CNR Purpose post-iMERA institutions, to create a common European Foresight to set the grounds for the post-iMERA institutions, to create a common European Foresight in order to harmonise procedures and results ….even if National Foresights can still survive

CERIS-CNR Before iMERA Project Before iMERA Project EUROMET National Level NMIs (National Metrology Institutes ) Government Stakeholders FORESIGHT

CERIS-CNR Post - iMERA European Foresight NMIs Government Stakeholders FORESIGHT National Level NMIs Government Stakeholders FORESIGHT National Level NMIs Government Stakeholders FORESIGHT National Level NMIs Government Stakeholders FORESIGHT National LevelEUROMET

CERIS-CNR 1° STEP a Survey on national foresight processes on Metrology R&D in European Countries a Survey on national foresight processes on Metrology R&D in European Countries

CERIS-CNR Some data on the survey Questionnaire sent on July 2005 to all EUROMET members 19 countriesResponses from 19 countries (58%): 14 partners, 5 non-partners iMERA Metrology foresight studies/processes in their Country (as declared): Yes 14 (74% of respondents ) No 3 (16%) No 3 (16%) No, but.. 2 (10%) No, but.. 2 (10%)

CERIS-CNR Questionnaire structure Part A: type a1 type a2 Answers from all respondent Countries Part A: general questions focusing on Metrology Foresight (type a1), but listing also other relevant studies useful for long term planning (type a2) - Answers from all respondent Countries Part B: type a1 ranging from 1 to 7 studies per Country Part B: specific questions related to metrology foresight (type a1) - (one questionnaire for each study listed in Part A), ranging from 1 to 7 studies per Country Part C: type a3 Answers from 9 countries Part C: specific questions related to other foresight studies (type a3) - Answers from 9 countries

CERIS-CNR Foresight studies/processes carried out or used in each Country (as declared) Respondent NMIs Country iMERA Project partner Metrology Foresight Type of Foresight a1a2a3 BEVAustria N--- CMICzech Rep. XY 1-- COSMTCzech Rep. XY --1 DFMDenmark XY 43- MIKESFinland XY 111 LNEFrance XN/Y 145 PTBGermany XY -27 NML-EIIreland Y 3-- IMGCItaly XN/Y 1-2 NMiNetherlands XY 3-1 JVNorway XN/Y --2 GUMPoland XY 1-- IPQPortugal N --- ZMDMSerbia & Montenegro N --- SMUSlovakia XY 1-1 MIRSSlovenia XY 12- CEMSpain Y -4 SP (**)Sweden XY 1-1 METASSwitzerland XY 1-- NPL (*)UK XY Countries TOTAL3518

CERIS-CNR Group Method 1. Identifying Issues a. Environmental Scanning b. SWOT Analysis c. Issue Surveys 2. Extrapolative Approaches a. Trend Extrapolation b. Simulation Modelling c. Genius Forecasting d. Delphi 3. Creative Approaches a. Brainstorming b. Expert Panels c. Cross Impact Analysis d. Scenarios 4. Prioritisation a. Critical (and Key) Technologies b. Technology Roadmapping Methods used in Foresight (from I.Miles, M.Keenan)

CERIS-CNR Part A - FTA relevant for metrology Methodologies more used to assess needs arising from: Industrial/societal Developments 1. Environmental Scanning (88%), mainly through of stakeholders, CIPM studies and Other Foresight studies 2. Expert Panels (56%) New areas 1. Environmental Scanning (73%), mainly through Consultation of stakeholders and other foresight studies from industrial sectors 2. Genius Forecasting (46%) Longer term work on the SI 1. Environmental Scanning (62%), mainly through CIPM studies 2. Genius Forecasting (46%).

CERIS-CNR NMIs participation in most of cases (80%) Extent: mainly National (72%) Time horizon: mainly 3-5 years (52%), 6-10 yrs. (44%) Scope: mainly General (56%), then by EUROMET TC Promotion: mainly by Government/Ministry (44%), then National Metrology organisation (40%) Methodologies: Environmental Scanning (57%) Expert Panels (48%) Brainstorming (44%) Genius Forecasting (35%) Frequency: periodical/one-off (44% both); 0-3 years ago (72%) Outcomes: mainly Papers/Reports (85%), workshops (44%) Part B: Specific Metrology Foresight studies

CERIS-CNR Methods used in Foresight processes and direct participation of NMIs

CERIS-CNR Use of Foresight Outcomes for planning NMI activity: Not very much (30%) Very much and Sufficiently (both 22%) Modification of NMI previous plans after Foresight: Not very much (41%) Sufficiently (30 %) Use of Foresight Outcomes for national Prioritisation Yes, 81% New scientific co-operations thanks to Foresight: Sufficiently (36 %) Not very much (32%) Co-operations in new areas thanks to Foresight Not very much (32%) Sufficiently and Much (both 27 %) Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (1)

CERIS-CNR Foresight helpfulness for development of metrology in general Sufficiently (44 %) Not very much (26%) Foresight helpfulness for development of specific metrology fields Much (44 %) Sufficiently (26%) Foresight helpfulness for the policy maker Much (30 %) Sufficiently (26%) Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (2)

CERIS-CNR Tentative classification of the reported foresight studies True foresight studies - True foresight studies - 17 from 11 countries (ranging from 1 to 4 per country) Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs - Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs - 10 from 6 countries (ranging from 1 to 3 per country) Market/Customer surveys - Market/Customer surveys - 3 from 2 countries Other foresight studies - Other foresight studies - 12 from 8 countries Specific research projects/feasibility studies - Specific research projects/feasibility studies - 19 from one country Not classifiable in previous categories - Not classifiable in previous categories - 10 from 3 countries

CERIS-CNR Some conclusions Large variety of national foresight processes Large variety of national foresight processes Many reported studies have the characteristics of Forecasting and Strategic Planning rather than of formal Foresight exercises Many reported studies have the characteristics of Forecasting and Strategic Planning rather than of formal Foresight exercises The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged learning effect The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged learning effect Central role of NMI motivated experts, but occasion for NMIs to increase their opening outwards Central role of NMI motivated experts, but occasion for NMIs to increase their opening outwards

CERIS-CNR The Need for a joint European Metrology Foresight is confirmed but has to be improved…. internal knowledge of foresight processes internal knowledge of foresight processes their impact on R&D programmes their impact on R&D programmes most effective way to conduct FTA most effective way to conduct FTA networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and Governments, inside and outside the Countries networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and Governments, inside and outside the Countries