Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Reporting on Adaptation Anna Beswick Sophie Turner 2 nd July 2015 Stirling Public Bodies Climate Change Duties

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer provides advice and support to help organisations, businesses and communities in Scotland prepare for, and build resilience to, the impacts of climate change providing information on recent and future climate trends; helping private and public sector organisations and communities to understand how future climate change will affect them; and helping private and public sector organisations and communities to develop a planned approach to adaptation. Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Overview 13:30 – 14:00Introduction 14:00 – 14:45Assessing climate risk 14:45 – 15:15Reporting on climate risk 15:15 – 15:45Taking action 15:45 – 16:10Monitor and review 16:10 – 16:30Questions and discussion

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Introduction

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Introduction Aims Introduction to adaptation Adaptation planning process

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Aims Aware of what each of the adaptation questions are asking. Aware of how to complete the questions. Opportunity to ask questions and compare approaches with colleagues.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Introduction to adaptation

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Climate is changing.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Weather affects us. ‘Prices of everyday staples such as bread, flour and beer are set to rise sharply after Russia imposed a ban on grain exports’ Financial Times, August 2010

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Long term trends in Scotland

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Long term trends in Scotland

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Are we ‘adapted’ to today’s climate? We need adaptation to present weather and climate. But what about adaptation to future climate change?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. Draft Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2013) What is adaptation?

Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it and we continue to improve on this. What do we know about Scotland’s future climate?

Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2020’s – 2080’s Warmer

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 2050s What difference do a few degrees make? 2080s London was 3.0°C warmer than Glasgow (in baseline ) So summer temperatures may be more similar to those in south of England by the 2050s and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C) *The projected values are for summer mean temperature under high emissions scenario

% Change in winter rainfall 2020’s – 2080’s Wetter

The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are: Weather will remain variable, it may become more variable Typical summer is hotter and drier Typical winter / autumn is milder and wetter We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What impact will it have? Key consequences for Scotland

The health of our natural environment The performance of our buildings

The increased risk of flooding The change at our coast

The health of our marine environment Our cultural heritage and Identity

The security and efficiency of our energy supply Infrastructure – Network Connectivity and Interdependencies

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Response Climate Change Act (2008) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme Public Bodies Climate Change Duties

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Civil Contingencies Act (2004) National Planning Framework 3 Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006 Response

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Adaptation planning process

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Five steps to managing your climate risks Accessible entry point for public bodies. Step by step approach. Transition to assessing risk over longer timescales. Partnership working.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Part C: Governance, Management and Strategy 2a How is climate change governed in the organisation? 2b How is climate change managed and delivered by the organisation? 2c Does the organisation have specific climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives in its corporate plan or similar document?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4a. Has the organisations assessed current and future climate related risks?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4a. Has the organisations assessed current and future climate related risks? 4c. What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change? 4d. Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4b. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to manage climate-related risks?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4e. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks? 4f. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Assessing current and future climate risk Sophie Turner Adaptation Scotland – Project Co- ordinator

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Has the organisation assessed current and future climate-related risks?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Overview Vulnerability, impact, likelihood and risk Difference between current and future climate-related risks Examples of risk assessments relevant to climate change adaptation Look out for the star!

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Where this fits within the five steps… 1.Defining the challenge 2a. Understanding weather impacts 2b. Climate impact assessment 3a. Climate risk assessment 3b. Action plan 4.Report and implement 5.Monitor and review

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

1. Assess your organisations current climate vulnerability a)How have previous weather events affected your organisation? b)How well did your organisation cope? c)Can you identify any critical thresholds?

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Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Site specific flood risk assessments

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 2. Assess your organisations future climate vulnerability a)How is the climate expected to change? b)What are the main climate impacts for my sector or location? c)Are there indirect climate impacts to consider?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Projected changes in summer and winter temperature and precipitation for Scotland (2050s – medium emissions scenario) 42

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 18

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4. Assess the impacts on your organisation a)What are the current climate-related threats? b)What are the future climate-related threats? c)What are you already doing well to manage these threats and what are your organisation’s strengths? d)What are the barriers to managing these threats (weaknesses)? e)What opportunities does this present for your organisation? f)What more do you need to do to manage the threats?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 17 Timely delivery of meals to vulnerable residents Yes No Yes

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 4. Identify the likely impacts on your organisation a)What are the current climate-related threats? b)What are the future climate-related threats? c)What are you already doing well to manage these threats and what are our organisation’s strengths? d)What are the barriers to managing these threats (weaknesses)? e)What opportunities does this present for your organisation? f)What more do you need to do to manage the threats?

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Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer NHS Climate Impact Assessment

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

5. Assess your organisations climate risks a)What risks do these climate impacts present? b)Will climate risks be more or less important than others? c)What are the priority risks that need an adaptation response?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer A climate risk assessment involves… Identifying your threats and opportunities (impacts) and the consequences these have on your organisation Assigning a likelihood rating to each impact Assigning a consequence value to each impact Calculating the risk rating by…

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 27

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer In depth climate change risk assessments Property and housing

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Property and housing

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer 5. Assess your organisations climate risks a)What risks do these climate impacts present? b)Will climate risks be more or less important than others? c)What are the priority risks that need an adaptation response?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Discussion questions How is you organisation currently assessing current and future climate risks? What will you report against this question?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Reporting on Climate Risk Anna Beswick Adaptation Scotland Manager

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What arrangements does the organisation have in place to manage climate related risks?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Strategies, frameworks, action plans, policies and proposals that that enable and/ or include adaptation actions. Adaptation is cross cutting – can be found across many planning and policy areas. Climate change adaptation strategy/ framework/ action plan. General sustainability / climate change strategy/ action plan. Strategies/ plans policies relating to business continuity, asset management, infrastructure, biodiversity, forestry, flood risk management, land use, development, regeneration, and emergency planning.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Assessing the impact of climate change Undertake a climate change risk assessment Modify conservation strategies and target priority sites where necessary. Input climate change factors into estate management strategies and business continuity planning

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Placemaking Policy PM1A: Development must contribute positively, to the quality of the surrounding built and natural environment. All development should be planned and designed with reference to climate change, mitigation and adaptation. Adaptation to Climate Change: Flood Risk Adaptation to risks and opportunities generated by our changing climate will be primarily achieved through guiding development to locations which do not flood, or increase flood risk elsewhere, and offer greater protection from impacts such as erosion, storms, water shortages and subsidence.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer NHS Sustainable Development Action Plan – adaptation section and actions included Climate Change Impact Assessments – include potential actions.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What arrangements does your organisation have in place to manage climate related risks?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Taking Action Sophie Turner Adaptation Scotland – Project Co- ordinator

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Taking action What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change? Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (“the Programme”)?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Taking action What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Taking action Action to adapt to the impacts of climate change includes work to:  Build adaptive capacity  Deliver adaptation actions

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Build adaptive capacity Increase the organisations capacity to understand and make decisions that will enable it to adapt to climate change.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Raising awareness of the need to adapt among staff, customers and stakeholder organisations. Participating in training that increases knowledge of how to adapt to climate change.  Assessing climate risks though in house risk assessments and/or commissioning specialist research.  Developing policies and plans that address climate risks, for example addressing the need to adapt to climate change through planning and placemaking.  Participating in cross sector/organisation partnerships /projects that enable increased understanding of climate risks and joint action to address these.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Deliver adaptation actions ‘On the ground’ delivery of actions that increase the organisations ability to adapt to future climate change.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Deliver adaptation actions  Introduction/ improvement of green infrastructure (e.g.street trees, high quality green spaces, green roofs, green walls) that contributes to reducing flooding and overheating risk and, supports nature to adapt.  Introduction of natural flood risk management and/or managed coastal realignment.  Factor in climate change adaptation as part of designing and implementing new assets/ buildings/ infrastructure/ areas of public realm.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer  Retrofit existing buildings, assets and public realm to increase ability to adapt to climate change.  Hard engineering solutions, for example, measures to reduce the impacts of heavy rainfall, overheating and severe weather on buildings, flood prevention infrastructure and, measures to reduce the risk of landslides impacting road and rail networks.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (“the Programme”)?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

SCCAP progress  Review policies and proposals listed under each of the strategic objectives contained within the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme.  Identify those where it is listed under the ‘who will deliver?’ column.  For each policy and/ or proposal where it is listed under the ‘who will deliver?’ report progress against delivery of the specified policy/ proposal.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Monitor, review and evaluate Sophie Turner Adaptation Scotland – Project Co- ordinator

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks? What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Overview Defining monitoring, reviewing and evaluation Where does M&E fit in the Five steps? What is the purpose of M&E? Types of evaluation What am I evaluating? Indicators What are we measuring against? How would we know what success looks like?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks? What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Terminology Monitoring The systematic collection of data during a project to track the progress of adaptation actions and make adjustments to the implementation where necessary. (Lamhauge, N., E. Lanzi and S. Agrawala (2012), “Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation: Lessons from Development Co-operation Agencies”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 38, OECD Publishing.)

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Terminology Reviewing Can be undertaken at a critical milestone or in response to specific issues. They provide a snapshot of an initiative to assess the progress of the implementation. Evaluation Usually undertaken after the implementation is complete.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Where does M&E fit in the Five steps? Adaptation is an iterative process that calls for close monitoring and regular review to ensure your organisation is ‘adapting well’.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What is the purpose of M&E? 1.To evaluate effectiveness 2.To assess efficiency 3.To understand equity 4.To provide accountability 5.To assess outcomes 6.To improve learning 7.To improve future activities or projects 8.To compare with other similar activities or projects Pringle, P AdaptME: Adaptation monitoring and evaluation. UKCIP, Oxford, UK.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Types of evaluation  A formative evaluation is used to inform decisions about improvement, to evaluate a project’s development and to learn about incremental changes. It is often done during the implementation of an adaptation initiative.  A summative evaluation assesses the overall effectiveness of an initiative and informs decisions about whether to continue or end a project. It is usually conducted when the adaptation initiative is complete.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What am I evaluating?  Building Adaptive Capacity involves developing an organisation’s capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.  Delivering Adaptation Actions involves taking practical actions to directly reduce or manage the impacts of climate change, to address non-climatic factors contributing to vulnerability or to exploit positive opportunities.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Indicators S - Specific M - Measureable A- Agreed R - Relevant T - Time-bound

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer What are we measuring against? Ways of measuring adaptation performance: 1.Against the objectives of the intervention 2.Against the understanding of good adaptation 3.Against a baseline

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Traffic Light Assessment One way to report on adaptation is based on the level of implementation.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer How would we know what success looks like? ‘Adaptation success’ is generally perceived to be an all-or-nothing situation; An adaptation initiative either turns out to be successful by achieving a set target or it doesn’t (meaning it failed).

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer How would we know what success looks like? This encourages decision-makers to only agree to an adaptation option where fully achieving the set goal is the likely end result. This is contrary to adaptation needing to be flexible and iterative. It rules out experimentation, where learning from ‘failures’ or partial successes is part of the process and should therefore be encouraged.

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