Development of future mobility scenarios in a SUMP process using a simulation game ISB - RWTH Aachen University Conny Louen

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 2 Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen University Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Renewal of the transport development plan in the city of Aachen started in 2011 Additional creation of a sustainable urban mobility plan in the region of Aachen since 2013

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 3 Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 4 Project co-financed by the european union Goal: implement sustainable mobility planning in four cities/regions Started in 2012 Civitas Dynamo Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Source: Civitas Initiative Each city/region is going to create a SUMP The simulation game will be considered in the SUMP-process

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 5 Source: Guidemaps Consortium 2004, p. 11 Need for the simulation game Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 6 Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Need for the simulation game Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion popu- lation migra- tion aging demo- graphy economy traffic mobility offer politics law plans costs availa- bility quality life- styles employ- ments goods custom- ers budget

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 7 Goal of the simulation game Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Introduce involved stakeholders to complexity of mobility related forecasts Reduce prediction complexity by limiting considered factors and creating thesis Build up common scenarios of future mobility by analyzing and discussing the stakeholders simulation game results Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 8 Game contains general thesis relating to future mobility During SUMP development process  Involved Stakeholders play game  Game results are analysed and used as base for building up future mobility scenarios Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13 Simulation Game Use case of the simulation game Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Edited Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13 Simulation Game

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 9 User data Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion At first the user is asked about personal information (e. g. role in the SUMP process) The information can be used for later analysis of the game results

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 10 Game structure Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 11 Game structure Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Click leads to Issue with two or three theses Control bar Areas representing Functional parts of a city Mobility and transport offers Traffic volume Increases or decreases Functional parts Expand or contract

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 12 Game content Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion 11 topics with 14 thesis For each thesis there are up to three choices Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen 3 categories of topics:  General conditions  Lifestyle  Mobility/transport offers

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 13 Thesis Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion One thesis after the other the user can make his choices The user has to complete the game by editing all thesis

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 14 Each choice influences  The later analysis  The image of the city ▫ Districts grow or shrink ▫ Traffic increases or decreases ▫ New mobility options appear Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Choice and consequences

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 15 Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Choice and consequences TopicS1S2 Populationdeclinesincreases Service sectordeclinesincreases TopicS1S2 traffic tollimplementednot impl. Oil pricedeclinesincreases Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen S1 S2

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 16 Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Output Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Image file with final state of the edited city and user data for visualization of the results Data set with user choices and user data is saved in a data base for aggregate analysis of the results

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 17 Analysis and discussion of simulation game results Goal: generating ‚common scenarios‘ Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Analysis Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Frequencies of thesis choices Frequencies of thesis choices by groups (e. g. differentiated by users role in the SUMP process) Most frequently chosen thesis can be identified and combined to a limited number of scenarios

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 18 Conclusion Backround Context Content and functioning Results and analysis Conclusion Simulation game is developed for use within SUMP process  To introduce participants in the complexity of mobility based forecasts  As basis for compiling common scenarios Game users have to choose between different thesis refering to mobility related topics Choices of all participants are saved and can be evaluated  To identify most frequently chosen thesis, which can be combined to scenarios Introduction for the discussion process on how mobility will develop and which measures are the best in this context

Aachen ECOMM 2014 l l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 19 Guidemaps Consortium 2004 Successful transport decision-making: A project management and stakeholder engagement handbook: Volume 1: Concepts and Tools Rupprecht Consult 2011 Guidelines: Developing and implementing a sustainable urban mobility plan; Cologne Bibliography