NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction 1 Visit of RADM Jonathan White January 24, 2013

2 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

3 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

4 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 4

5 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMMB North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 5 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Regional DA Sea Nettle Forecast

Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Hurricane – GFDL, WRF GLOFS Bays Chesapeake, N. GoM Tampa, Columbia R, Delaware Enlil – Space Wx Model Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III 6

NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Working with NOAA and larger coastal/ocean communities on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary partnerships –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery (R2O  O2R); working with national and international communities –Moved into NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in August 2012 – opens up a new era for entire enterprise 7 Concluding Remarks 7

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction 8 Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD housing 800+ Federal employees, and contractors 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) OAR Air Resources Laboratory Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists Includes 464 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

Green Building Design 9 Candidate for Gold certification by the U.S. Green Building Council’s LEED TM Green Building Rating System Built using materials with recycled and local content, including highly efficient glass Sunshades to optimize energy performance 60% of roof surface is covered with low growing plants for better insulation Outside are bio-retention areas, a storm water cistern to collect water for irrigation and a four-story rainwater waterfall to drain the roof Inside occupancy sensors for the lighting systems, carpets and paints selected to preserve quality of indoor air

Collaborative Building Design 10 Designed to facilitate collaboration –1 st floor contains critical infrastructure and NCO staff 10, 000 square ft data center consolidates five data centers from WWB Dual network and power feeds Three generators provide redundant backup capability –2 nd floor – data/model improvement issues Colocation of organizations that deal with critical observing issues (NESDIS STAR), data assimilation issues (JCSDA) and model development and transition activities (EMC) Accelerates the use of new observing systems to improve weather and climate prediction –3 rd floor – climate theme Contains CPC, sections of NESDIS STAR and the Climate Test Bed Will lead to improved climate prediction techniques and products –4 th floor – houses all operational units HPC, OPC, NESDIS SAB NCO’s Senior Duty Meteorologist Media Center