UEA contribution to ENSEMBLES WP6.2 – where we are and where we think we are going! Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES AGM, Lund, November, 2006

WP6.2 Utility Web Site First draft finished Will put up after AGM Brief summary –Data links –Data storage –Code snippets –Analysis ideas –Publication promotion and development –Work schedule, timetable, milestones etc. This draft is to invite comment!

D6.2 UEAs contribution Essentially a series of impact models based on exceedences of critical thresholds of temperature, rainfall, etc. –Appropriate for human health, animal husbandry, storm vulnerability, flooding Analogue models –e.g. represent 2003 heat wave as persistent exceedences of temperature percentiles. Apply this to all Europe and examine changes in probability by end of century. Return levels –Block maxima extremes (and r-largest) normally are parameterised by the GEV distribution, which allows ready estimation of return levels and return periods for particular values –So, for example, knowing a certain temperature has a return period of 100 years gives, on average, a 1% chance of exceeding that temperature in a given year. Therefore, can plot probabilities for impact models by grid box

Tims Five Questions! (1) 1.What are the main objectives of the UEA study? 1.Devise impact models in the categories defined in the DoW 2.Relate these to indices of climate extremes based on daily ENSEMBLES RCM data (both block maxima and r-largest) 3.Estimate changes in probability of impact due to climate change Using continuous time series so rate of change can be considered Involves assessment of return levels 4.Use multiple ensembles to assess uncertainty in the probabilities due to different factors Forcing model, error in individual models 2.How do objectives relate to WP6.2 objectives? 1.To select, calibrate and test impact models 2.To undertake preliminary impact model sensitivity analysis and scenario runs (response surfaces) 3.To define critical thresholds of impacts for relevant sectors and regions

Tims Five Questions! (2) 3.What have we achieved so far? –Objectives 1, 2, and 3 are about 85% completed using block maxima –Needs to be repeated with r-largest where appropriate 4.Which of the WP6.2 tasks, Milestones, and Deliverables do we plan to contribute to and in what form? –D6.2: model and method development, co-ordinating joint report completed –D6.8: testing on climate change data, co-ordinating joint report Due month 30 –D6.13: repeat 6.8 with multi-ensembles data (due month 42) –M6.12: review and consolidation meeting (month 32) –M6.13: dont know what it means! –M6.14: as D6.13 (month 42) –Tasks as supporting above

Tims Five Questions! (3) 5.What are the main questions requiring discussion here? Is the meeting in M6.12 necessary? Much of the work should have been done in producing the reports for D6.7 and D6.8 What does M6.13 mean? Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models (in line with Major milestones 6.1 and 6.2) How important is a common methodology for producing each of D6.7 and D6.8? By which I mean common only within each Deliverable