STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE National Surface Transportation Weather Symposium July 25, 2007 Betty Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

2 Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response I.FORECAST II.HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT III.RISK REDUCTION

3 I. FORECAST A. Accuracy B. Dissemination –Multiple Channels –Multiple Modalities Factors Affecting Effectiveness

4 RISK COMMUNICATION: A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS RECEIVING UNDERSTANDING BELIEVING PERSONALIZING Adapted from Tierney, K., M.K. Lindell and R. Perry SENDING

National Weather Service Appropriate Citizen Responses Broadcast Media Emergency Managers CHANNELS Public Officials Family and Friends Employers, Schools, Etc. Internet 511, Highway Systems PDAs, NAVI, Etc. Severe Weather Communication System

6 BETTER FORECASTS AND DISSEMINATION AREN’T ENOUGH They Must: They Must: Be Understood Result in Effective Risk Assessment Result in Effective Risk Assessment

7 II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT A.Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers B. Vulnerability Assessment

8 A. Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity To what extent do responders understand terms such as: tropical cyclone category tropical cyclone category watch watch warning warning storm surge? storm surge?

9 From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI Funded by National Science Foundation

11 No important differences by evacuation plans, living in an evacuation zone, age College graduates, higher income more likely to give correct answer Women more likely to say they did not know From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI Funded by National Science Foundation

12 Hurricane Local Statement Insert Quote, Graph or Picture Here

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale With Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale With Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland Major hurricanes Surge Wind Rain Tornado Category 1 Winds: mph (64-82 kt) Category 1 Winds: mph (64-82 kt) Category 2 Winds: mph (83-95 kt) Category 2 Winds: mph (83-95 kt) Category 3 Winds: mph ( kt) Category 3 Winds: mph ( kt) Category 4 Winds: mph ( kt) Category 4 Winds: mph ( kt) Category 5 Winds: > 155 mph (> 136 kt) Category 5 Winds: > 155 mph (> 136 kt) Low Moderate Extreme High Low Moderate Extreme High Low Moderate Extreme High Irene (99) Claudette (03) Hazards Hurricane Categories Isabel (03) Floyd (99) Isabel (03) Floyd (99) Jeanne (04) Katrina Katrina Katrina Katrina Charley (04) Hugo (95) Camille (69) Andrew (92)* ImpactImpactImpactImpact ImpactImpactImpactImpact Low Moderate Extreme High ImpactImpactImpactImpact ImpactImpactImpactImpact Storm examples shown in hazard matrix based on intensity at landfall *landfall in South landfall in Louisiana

14 Center Track in Cone? Note: NHC now provides the option of examining the Cone of Uncertainty with or without the center track (toggle) Center track of Hurricane Charley “pointed” toward Tampa Bay area -- Eye made landfall at Port Charlotte (within the Cone of Uncertainty)

15 64 kt Cumulative0-120 h 18 UTC Thu 12 Aug Hurricane Charley (2004) Note that chances of hurricane conditions at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%! Created by Jamie Rhome, NHC

16 Percent INCORRECTLY Identifying Watches and Warnings From Post-Ivan Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin and Betty Hearn Morrow

17 II. RISK ASSESSMENT A.Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers

18 Language Language Physical abilities Physical abilities Sight Sight Hearing Hearing Cognition Cognition Education/Training Education/Training Experience Experience 2. Characteristics of Receivers

19 II. RISK ASSESSMENT A.Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers B. Vulnerability Assessment

20 Vulnerability Depends Upon: Vulnerability Depends Upon: Location/Site Location/Site Structure Structure Household Structure Household Structure Disabilities/Special Needs Disabilities/Special Needs Social Networks Social Networks Effectiveness of Local Authorities Effectiveness of Local Authorities and Institutions and Institutions

21 Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response I.FORECAST II.HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT III.RISK REDUCTION

22 Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On: 1. Awareness of Alternatives & Consequences Effectiveness of Local Authorities Effectiveness of Local Authorities 2. Appropriate Decisions Experience/Education Experience/Education Cognitive abilities Cognitive abilities Confirmation Confirmation Culture Culture

23 Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On: 3. Resources to Respond Appropriately Safe Shelter Safe Shelter Transportation Transportation Economic Resources Economic Resources Social Support System Social Support System

24 Evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina: Forecast Accurate Widely Disseminated Risk Assessment Forecast Understood? Clear Message* Able Receivers Vulnerability Understood?* Risk Reduction Awareness of Alternatives/Consequences?* Appropriate Decision? Resources to Carry It Through?* * Affected by Actions of Authorities

25 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow Professor Emeritus, Sociology Florida International University