MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT IS OUR LEGACY History Will Decide Which Legacy We Actually Leave Part 2 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

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PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES During , the world began to consider seriously the environmental impacts of global climate change and the possibility of exacerbated impacts from floods, landslides, droughts, and wildfires. Warmer air and warmer water are a Rx for enhancing severe windstorms. Warmer air can hold more water and unleash more energy, making wind fields stronger, storm surges higher, rainfall heavier, and floods and landslides more frequent.

PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES Earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes have tectonic ori- gins, but some of their physical effects can be exacerbated by global climate change.  Warmer air and warmer water may explain the increase of flooding in Europe Asia, South America, and the USA during 2007 and

PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE JET STREAM AND FLOODING A number of flooding disasters occurred almost simultaneously around the World in 2007 and Experts now know that certain configurations of the jet stream can produce flooding nearly simultane- ously in different parts of the World..

RELIABLE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM AROUND THE WORLD DURING THE PAST 150 YEARS SUPPORT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

1.THE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED BY 1.73 DEGREES F DURING THE PAST 100 YEARS TO 57.9 DEGREES F 2.THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS WARMING FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

3. SATELLITE MEASURE- MENTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPOSPHERE IS WARMING FASTER THAN THE EARTH’S SURFACE. NOTE: THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PHYSICS OF GREENHOUSE GASES ABSORBING HEAT.

4.THE EARTH’S OCEANS ABSORB 20 TIMES AS MUCH HEAT AS THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE. 5.THE PH LEVEL OF THE EARTH’S OCEANS HAS INCREASED. NOTE: THIS INDICATES AN INCREASED ABSORPTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE.

6.AVERAGE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL HAS INCREASED BY 4.7 INCHES SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE. 7. SEA LEVEL RISES FOR TWO REASONS: A) WATER EXPANDS WHEN IT IS WARMER, AND B) WATER VOLUME INCREASES FROM MELT WATER.

8. IF THE FLOATING ARCTIC ICE CAPS MELT, GLOBAL SEA LEVEL WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. 9. IF ALL THE SNOW AND ICE IN GREENLAND MELTED, GLOBAL SEA LEVEL WILL RISE 24 FEET.

10. THE ALBEDO (PERCENT OF LIGHT REFLECTED) FOR FRESH SNOW IS PERCENT, BUT ONLY PERCENT FOR MELTING ICE.

12. THE SUN PROVIDES AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1370 WATTS OF POWER THROUGH EM RADIATION TO EVERY SQUARE METER OF SURFACE IT STRIKES. NOTE: THIS IS CALLED THE SOLAR CONSTANT.

13. THE SOLAR SPECTRUM INCLUDES VISIBLE (ROYGBIV), ULTRAVIOLET (A WAVE LENGTH TOO SHORT TO SEE), AND INFRARED LIGHT (A WAVE LENGTH TOO LONG TO SEE).

14. ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE INCOMING SOLAR SPECTRUM IS REFLECTED BACK TO SPACE FROM CLOUDS, SNOW, AND, TO A LESSER DEGREE, BY OTHER SURFACES.

15. THE BALANCE (ABOUT 70 PERCENT) OF THE INCOMING SOLAR SPECTRUM IS ABSORBED BY LAND, AIR, WATER, OR ICE.

16. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OCCURS WHEN AN EARTH WARMED BY THE SOLAR SPECTRUM RADIATES INVISIBLE INFRARED LIGHT BACK, BUT, INSTEAD OF GOING BACK TO SPACE, IT IS PARTLY ABSORBED BY GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE, MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE WARMER.

17. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OCCURS NATURALLY. 18. THE ISSUE IS: “HAVE HUMAN ACTIVITIES ENHANCED THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT BY INCREASING GREENHOUSE GASES ABOVE HISTORIC LEVELS?”

19. WITHOUT THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT, PLANET EARTH WOULD BE AT A MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURE; E.G., MINUS 2 DEGREES F. 20. WITH AN ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT, PLANET EARTH WOULD BE WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 57.9 DEGREES IT NOW ENJOYS.

21. CARBON DIOXIDE ENTERS THE ATMOSPHERE NATURALLY. 22 NATURAL PHYSICAL PROCESSES REMOVE CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE ATMO- SPHERE.

23. AS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT CAUSES HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE REMOVAL RATE OF CARBON DIOXIDE IS DECREASED.

"Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity.”

"Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.”

“Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.”

The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to be more pervasive.

Landslides triggered in earthquakes are likely to be more extensive.

The impacts of tsunami wave run up will be more extensive.

“By the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years now could be taking place every five years.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

“An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred worldwide during 2007.“ y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

FLOODS IN NORTH KOREA: AUGUST 7-14, 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JUNE – JULY 2007

FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007 (50,000 kg of dead fish)

FLOODING IN HENLEY ON THAMES, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING: TEWKESBURY, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE, ENGLAND: JULY 2007

FLOODING AND OIL SPILL IN COFFEYVILLE, KANSAS: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN THE SUDAN: JULY 2007

FLOODING IN IRAN: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN MARBLE FALLS, TEXAS: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN LAGOS, NIGERIA: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN PAKISTAN: JUNE 2007

FLOODING IN KANSAS, USA: MAY 2007

FLOODING IN SALINAS, KANSAS: MAY 2007

FLOODING IN BOLIVIA: FEBRUARY 2007

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