CESD 1 SAGES Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment & Society Observing and Modelling Climate Change Simon Tett, Chair of Earth System Dynamics & Modelling, University of Edinburgh

CESD 2 Greenhouse Gas changes Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2, methane and N 2 O have increased as a result of human activity since 1750 Far exceed pre- industrial values. CO 2 increase primarily due to fossil fuel use and land-use change

CESD 3 Global Mean Temperature From Brohan et al, 2006 Red bars show annual average. Grey bars the possible range. Blue line is smoothed to show slow change

CESD 4 The longer perspective Recent warming unprecedented

CESD 5 What are we trying to understand? Image created by Reto Stockli with the help of Alan Nelson, under the leadership of Fritz Hasler How might the earth system evolve in the future? How and why did it evolve in the past?

CESD 6 The Earth is Dynamic From Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison Shows weather. Weather what you get, Climate is what you expect

CESD 7 Greenhouse Effect Surface Cooling at about 6.5 o C/Km Heat Energy escapes to space. At balance energy in from sun is the same as heat energy to space Energy from Sun

CESD 8 Adding more Greenhouse gases to the atmosphere Surface Cooling at about 6.5 o C/Km Same Heat Energy escapes to space but from higher in the atmosphere Energy from Sun Surface Temperature warms

CESD 9 Feedbacks Act to amplify (or damp) warming from changes in carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases and other climate drivers. –Water vapour – warmer atmosphere can store more water vapour. Water vapour absorbs “heat” radiation so is a Greenhouse gas. Warmer world will have more moisture in the atmosphere and so will trap more heat. Increases warming –Clouds have two main effects: 1.Trap heat energy so add to the greenhouse effect 2.Reflect energy from sun back to space so cool climate –Relative importance of these two effects uncertain. High clouds tend to warm while low clouds cool. How relative proportions change as climate changes is a large uncertainty in estimates of future climate change –Ice/Snow feedback. Ice and snow are white and reflect solar energy back to space. Melting ice and snow will cause more solar radiation to be absorbed which in turn will warms the climate.

CESD 10 Snow/Ice Feedback Image courtesy NASA/GSFC/JPL, MISR Team. See Team. Summer Winter

CESD 11 Climate Modelling Modelling of the atmospheric flow has long history – first attempts, using computers, made in 1950’s. General Circulation Models developed from computer models used to forecast weather These models represent atmosphere, ocean, ice, land-surface, carbon cycle, chemistry…

CESD 12 General Circulation Models Three dimensional model of the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean Build on fundamental equations but approximately solved by breaking space and time into cells. Cells are roughly 100 by 100 miles (150 by 150 Km) in size. Many processes occurring that are not resolved with cells this big so their average effect needs to be approximated. How to do this is uncertain.

CESD 13 The End!

CESD 14 Jan 2008