Presented by Regional Economic Outlook Dr. Steven G. Cochrane.

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Presentation transcript:

Presented by Regional Economic Outlook Dr. Steven G. Cochrane

Variation in State Job Growth Remains Narrow Standard deviation of year-to-year state job growth by state Trend LineOil Price Shock Recession Peso Devaluation Asia Crisis 00

Job Growth: Narrow Differences Above Average Average Below Average U.S. = 2.3 % change year ago, 3-mo. moving average, July 2000 Average is within 1/2 std. dev. of mean state growth rate of 2.0%

Variation in State Income Growth Is Beginning to Widen Standard deviation of real, year-to-year non-farm household income growth by state Trend Line 00

High Productivity Drives Income Growth in the Northeast Real Household Income Employment Annualized Growth,

Productivity is Concentrated U.S. = $70,100 Below Average Average Above Average Note: Productivity adjusted for industry mix. Output per worker, 1998.

Productivity Growth Fastest on the Coasts Output per worker, annualized growth, Productivity adjusted for industry mix

Income Growth is Accelerating Fastest in Northeast and West Real household income Annualized growth rates (%), 1999

Regional Income Convergence Has Halted Per capita income. Index: U.S. = 100 Northeast South Midwest West

Capital Gains as a Share of Income Below Average Average Above Average Note: Income is adjusted gross income

Venture Capital Supports the West $ Bil.

Venture Capital Is Concentrated V.C. placements as a % share of GDP, 1999 Below Average Average Above Average U.S. = 0.39% Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, BEA, RFA

West Is Home to More Internet Sites Location of web site owners, based on approximately 75,000 sites Source: Alexa Research, 2000

More Than Half the Internet Economy is in the West % of U.S. Sept. 22, 2000 By headquarters location of Internet-related firms *535 Public and private companies

Southern & Northeastern Internet- Related Firms Holding Value Better % Change Mid-April to Sept. 22

Costs Are an Increasing Concern West Midwest South Northeast Employment cost index Wages & salaries, pvt. ind. % change year ago

Cost of Doing Business Above average Below average Average Costs include tax burden, unit labor costs and energy costs

Commodity Exports Rebounding West Northeast South Midwest % change year ago

Exposure to Exports Commodity exports as a share of GDP Below Average Average Above Average U.S. = 7.5% in 1999 Sources: MISER, BEA, RFA

Slowdown in Homebuilding is Not Uniform Increase Decrease between -10% and 0% Decrease of more than -10%

Job Growth Outlook Above average Average Below Average U.S. = 1.3% Note: Annualized growth