Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Mountain Day 2, UNFCCC COP 18, Doha

Overview Adaptation challenges Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme Initial results on food security Key messages

Main Challenges Uncertainties impeding local action Local-level climate projections not yet established Local institutions still unaware of the issue Community knowledge underexplored

Putting Adaptation in Motion But we cannot wait until knowledge is perfect! Mainstreaming adaptation options in planning requires: Local level projections and scientific analysis Understanding of the institutional landscape Understanding of local knowledge Good pilots

HICAP Climate change scenarios Water availability and demand scenarios Ecosystem services Food security Vulnerability and adaptation Gender in adaptation Communication and outreach Sub-basin level Local community level Cross cutting components Goal: Enhance resilience to change, particularly climate change Objectives: Reduce uncertainty Knowledge and capacity development Actionable proposals Climate Science Environmental Science Social Science

HICAP: Selected Sub-basins

Vulnerability and Adaptation Quantitative and place-based qualitative 3 river sub-basins in India, Nepal, Pakistan Over 6,000 households and 500 settlements Wide range of issues affecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment

Mountain Farming Systems Small-holder agriculture with fragmented land Mixed farming systems Low inputs, limited equipment, labour shortage Predominantly rain-fed agriculture with high vulnerability to climatic changes

New Environment Stressors Most common environmental changes noted in the last 10 years

Coping Strategies N =1,155, 100%, data: VACA 2011/12 Three most common coping strategies to deal with change in last 10 years

Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%) Food Security Profile: Access River sub-basinsSelf-producedBought from store Food subsidies/aid Other Eastern Brahmaputra (India) Koshi (Nepal) 5444<12 Upper Indus (Pakistan) Average Source: VACA data 2012 Over 90% of food comes from their own sources…. …..without any support from outside Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)

Food Security Profile: Stability/Productivity Top 3 staple and cash crops – reported productivity trends (last 10 years) Staple Crops Eastern Brahmaputra KoshiUpper Indus Main paddy Wheat Early paddySummer maize Summer vegetables Winter vegetables WheatSummer potato Cash Crops Eastern Brahmaputra KoshiUpper Indus GingerSummer potato Apple Mustard Summer Potato ChillyGarlicApricot Source: VACA data 2012 With a few exceptions, the productivity in most crops is decreasing Upper mountains in Nepal: potato an advantageous ‘adaptation crop’

Food Security Profile: Utilization Unbalanced diets, micronutrient deficiencies Erosion of traditional practices and agro-/diet diversity Weak socioeconomic position of women/children Food prices affect everyone but disproportionate impact on poor

Adapting/Coping to Changes Farmers are clueless Why are changes happening? Farmers are coping But changes are happening faster than they can handle; sometimes lifelong disadvantage Water is the ‘gateway’ to most problems and solutions Climatic variability exaggerates problems Indigenous solutions are often best Research, document, and upscale Adaptation? Do we prepare for the unpredictable or the predicted?

Way Forward Further analysis of results Correlate food security with climatic/hydrological scenarios Prevent maladaptation, improve resilience Technology and traditional knowledge Improve response mechanism Early warning systems and flood management Reduce farming risk Insurance, market and farmers centric extension services, particularly for rainfed farming

Thank you Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP)