Framework for approaching climate change and health Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director US Climate and Health Alliance Webinar, May 14, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Framework for approaching climate change and health Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director US Climate and Health Alliance Webinar, May 14, 2014

Temperature data “The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data.. show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06]°C, over the period 1880–2012” IPCC AR5 WG Global Temperature Anomaly IPCC AR5 WG1 Figure SPM.1

Warming clearly not related to 11- year solar “sun spot” cycle (in red)

Just one reason why ~97% of climate scientists (out of >4,000 surveyed) agree that today’s heating of the earth is human-caused, primarily from burning fossil fuels, and by deforestation. Doran & Zimmerman, 2009; Anderegg et al. 2010, PNAS.

Global Climate Change Regional Changes: Land areas warm more than ocean areas, so Africa warms more than the global average IPCC, AR5, 2014

3 rd National Assessment on Climate Change: released May 6, 2014

US Global Change Research Pgm.

Projected heating of the US US National Climate Assessment, 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic Extremes Urban Heat Island Effect Air Pollution & Aeroallergens Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne Diseases Water resources & food supply Mental Health & Environmental Refugees Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory failure Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma Malaria Dengue Encephalitis Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera Cyclospora Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospirosis Malnutrition Diarrhea Toxic Red Tides Forced Migration Overcrowding Infectious diseases Human Conflicts 1 3°C by yr cm “ “ IPCC estimates Patz, 1998 HEALTH EFFECTS FROM DISRUPTING CLIMATE

McMIchael 1997 WHO Patz, 1998 Hess, NIEHS Patz, EHP 2000 Haines & Patz 2004 LRudolph April

Haines & Patz, 2004

EXTREME WEATHER/STORMS Climate Variability and Change

Hurricane Strength & Sea Surface Temps. Emanuel, 2005

Typhoon Haiyan Philippines, Nov. 8, 2013

TEMPERATURE Climate Variability and Change

'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-yr long seasonal temperature records over 50% of Europe. Probability of 'mega- heatwaves’ will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. Barriopedro et al Science 21 March /science Russia 2010: 1 month heatwave (>100°) 55,000 excess deaths 1 million acres burnt 25% drop in crop yields US$15 billion loss Courtesy: Alistair Woodward

Future Extreme Heat - Wisconsin Courtesy: Dan Vimont, PhD