1. Climate change and Health
Presentation for:
GEOHub Workshop
Kampala, April 22, 2015
Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director
(2015 Fulbright Scholar, US State Dept - Ethiopia)

2. Temperature Change: 2055 By 2055: Central Africa warms by:
Temperature Change RCP 4.5
in : June – August
Temperature Change RCP 4.5
in : December - February
By 2055: Central Africa warms by:
1.5° - 3° C in June – August
1.5° - 2° C in December – February
By 2055: North Africa, the Sahara, and South Africa warm by:
2° - 3° C in June – August
1.5° - 3° C in December – February
Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Ranges represent ranges from the climate models, not geographic variations.
Plots are a compilation of Figs. AI.40 – AI.51. The relevant part of caption for AI.40 reads:
Maps of temperature changes in 2046–2065 with respect to 1986–2005 in the RCP4.5 scenario. For each point, the 50th percentile of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble are shown, this includes both natural variability and inter-model spread. Hatching denotes areas where the 20-yr mean differences of the percentiles are less than the standard deviation of model-estimated present-day natural variability of 20-yr mean differences.
Sections , , , Box 11.2, , contain relevant information regarding the evalu-
ation of models in this region, the model spread in the context of other methods of projecting changes and the
15 role of modes of variability and other climate phenomena.
June - August
December - February

3. Precipitation Change: 2055
Precipitation Change RCP 4.5
in : April – September
Precipitation Change RCP 4.5
in : October - March
By 2055: Wet areas get wetter, dry areas get drier. But, there is weak consensus among models as to whether any location in Africa will be wetter or drier.
Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Precipitation changes are not as robust as temperature changes – note that hatching indicates that the change is not as large as one standard deviation of present-day natural variability.
The general consensus (90% of models agree) is that far northern Africa (along the Mediterranean) and southern Africa (south of a line from Tanzania to northern Angola) will get drier by (Fig ). The general consensus (90% of models agree) is that precipitation will increase in east Africa and in areas in the northern Sahel from about Niger eastward (Fig ). However, there is not consensus about changes in precipitation over the rest of Africa.
Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Ranges represent ranges from the climate models, not geographic variations.
Plots are a compilation of Figs. AI.40 – AI.51. The relevant part of caption for AI.41 reads:
Maps of temperature changes in 2046–2065 with respect to 1986–2005 in the RCP4.5 scenario. For each point, the 50th percentile of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble are shown, this includes both natural variability and inter-model spread. Hatching denotes areas where the 20-yr mean differences of the percentiles are less than the standard deviation of model-estimated present-day natural variability of 20-yr mean differences.
Sections , , , Box 11.2, , contain relevant information regarding the evalu-
ation of models in this region, the model spread in the context of other methods of projecting changes and the
15 role of modes of variability and other climate phenomena.
April - September
October - March

4. Temperature trends in Ethiopia
Year to Year Variability of Annual minimum Temperature over Ethiopia expressed in temperature difference compared to normal.
Courtesy: Kinfe Hailemariam, Natl. Met. Agency

5. Climate sensitive health impacts
World Health Organization
3 January 2018
Climate sensitive health impacts
Each year:
- Undernutrition kills 3.1 million
Malaria kills over 600,000
Diarrhea kills almost 600,000 children
Extreme weather events kill tens of thousands These, and others, are highly sensitive to a changing climate
Why is this important for health. Many countries at the WHA this year made statements on the way that climate change is already health in their country.
A new study for WHO, considering only a subset of health impacts from climate change, and assuming continued strong economic growth, shows that it is conservatively expected to be responsible for an additional 250,000 deaths per year from

6. HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Heat Stress
Cardiorespiratory failure
Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma
Malaria
Dengue
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
Malnutrition
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts
Urban Heat Island Effect
Air Pollution
Vector-borne Diseases
Water-borne Diseases
Water resources & food supply
Environmental Refugees
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
°C by yr. 2100
cm “ “
IPCC estimates
Patz, 1998

7. Grabow MET 606
11/27/12
Climate Variability and Change
temperature

8. Calculus of extremes
Climate change can involve change in the average, or the spread around the average (standard deviation), or both.
A shift in the distribution of temperatures has a much larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean.
A shift of 1 standard deviation makes a 1 in 40 yr event into a 1 in 6 yr event
Standard deviation
1 in 40 yr high range

9. Projected # of days over 32°C
Average NYC summer (current) = 13 days
Average summer ( ) = 39 days
Bottom line (but you might reach out to Dan) is that we used a downscaling technique that can capture the temperature extremes  —by  retaining mean and standard deviation in downscaling.   New technique called “vector-based”  generalized linear modeling. 
Often downscaling climate models provide mean temperatures, but not retain climate extremes.
Finally, our findings are consistent with other analyses (including the National Assessment). 
Unique:  downscaled from the climate models, and “de-biased”  de-biased 
Here we do capture the extremes  — predict mean and STD   retain mean and STD in downscaling.  
NEW technique to retain the extremes — vector-based  generalized linear model     ..for user
consistent  and designed to retain …
East of the Rockies
32°C
Patz et al. 2014

10. 30-year average monthly mean afternoon in-shade WBGT (based on IPCC RCPs)

11. Time trend of in-shade afternoon WBGT for July from 1992 to 2085 at Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, based on five international climate models for RCP6.0

12. Baseline
Ebi et al. 2005

13. Baseline
Ebi et al. 2005

14. Grabow MET 606
11/27/12
Climate Variability and Change
precipitation

15. Water Stress-Africa Courtesy: Paul Block, UW-Madison
If we look closer at the water stress in africa, we would get a better idea of the water conflicts there. The figure on the left lists a bunch of african countries, each countries has two bars, the upper bar in light blue color represents…, the lower…., and the horizontal line shows the availability of water per capita, and is divied into four zones: zone with the worst scenario is the water scarcity, then water stress and water vulnerability. In general there will be a big drop in water availability per capita cross most african countries. If we look at the ethiopia and egypt only, egypt is already under water stress condition in 1990 and both the two counties are expected to have water scarcity or close to water scarcity in let’s look at a more recent research on the global water scarcity in 2012, we can see that egypt and ethiopia are already under water scarcity right now. However, the situations are different in the two countries.
where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers
Courtesy: Paul Block,
UW-Madison

16. Agricultural Impacts: Africa & S. Asia
Source: Knox et al. 2012
For Africa, significant reductions for wheat (-17%), maize (-5%), sorghum (-15%) and millet (- 10%).”
Central Africa less affected than north & south
NOTE: estimates ignore climate “shocks” (droughts/floods) and plant pests

17. Globally Averaged In Future, when it rains…it will pour.
U.S. CCSP, 2008

18. Could Combating Climate Change be cost-free?
…or even a net gain?

19. …Opportunity especially for Africa
Opportunity at the intersection of: Health Energy Food security Forest conservation
…Opportunity especially for Africa

21. From this year’s Lima COP
“…examination of opportunities with high mitigation potential, including those with adaptation, health, and sustainable development co-benefits”

22. We are already thinking about leveraged GEOHub projects

23. Universities-wide initiative ??
to switch from wood stoves to those powered by hydro, wind, solar, or biogas – women’s health, forest protection and climate resilience

24. African Cities Matter for Climate Change
Urban areas are focal points for addressing global climate change and its related health impacts.
Successful adaptation to climate change globally depends centrally on what is done in urban centres. Community-driven upgrading of informal settlements reduces deep-rooted vulnerability to extreme weather events and increases awareness of climate change impacts.
Although much of the investment needed for adaptation will have to come from individuals, households and firms, its effectiveness depends on what local governments do, encourage, support and prevent as well as their  contribution to providing needed infrastructure and services.
Many of the measures needed for climate change adaptation in urban areas fall within the responsibilities of local governments
Many of the challenges and opportunities for urban adaptation are derived from the central features of city life – the concentration of people, buildings, economic activities and social and cultural institutions (Dodman and Romero-Lankao 2011)

25. Urbanization and Emissions
The path toward more urbanization has typically meant increased emissions, however cities vary widely in their per capita emissions estimates. The way cities are designed have huge implications for behavior, emissions, and health.
There is an incredible opportunity to plan, engineer, and manage new cities in Africa as low carbon economies.
New cities can adopt technologies & urban forms encouraging healthy behaviors that benefit residents and mitigate climate change.
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division
World Resources Institute – Climate Analysis Indicators Tool

26. Diesel smoke and health
Burning fossil fuels causes local health risks

27. Co-benefit of 0. 7 to 4. 7 million deaths/yr
Co-benefit of 0.7 to 4.7 million deaths/yr. Reductions in PM pollution in 2030
Shindell….J Schwartz… et al. Science, 2012
control measures and identified 14 that both mitigate warming and improve air quality, such as reducing emissions from coal mining, oil and gas production, and municipal landfills.

28. Cost of cleaner energy: < $30/ tCO2 Benefits of cleaner energy:
WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???
(* Range: $50 to $380)
For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater
West et al. 2013

29. Can cities in East Africa become the model for the rest of the continent?

31. “Bikeable Bahir Dar?”

32. Ethiopia: Climate-Resilient Green Economy

33. December, 2015, in Paris
UN Conference of the Parties (COP 21), “to establish binding agreements ambitious enough to limit global warming to 2°C.”