GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 Earth Observations and Energy Management Expert Meeting Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 Earth Observations for Energy Activities A two-step process (a) Use of new earth observations can improve weather forecast products (b) Improved weather forecasts can lead to improved forecasts of energy demand / production However, direct link between new observations and energy applications difficult to establish (unless instrument x improves parameter y, which is particularly important for specific energy application) Probabilistic forecast systems seem to be especially appropriate to use in decision-making processes First (idealised) experiments on potential economic value of weather fcs suggest that probabilistic forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts More studies with real application data are necessary

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 Gaps in data & products Information on quality of forecasts Users need to know how much they can trust the forecast information - what was the general performance of the forecasts in the past? re-forecast systems - how certain/uncertain is this particular forecast for today? probabilistic (ensemble) forecast methods Information on what forecasts are needed Forecast producers need to know which information is needed in what quality - are there exact limits of when a forecast is useful / not useful e.g. min Temperature in last 24h at LHR +/- 2K? average precipitation over Norway in last month +/- 50mm?

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 Enhanced Capabilities for the Future Improved forecasts due to assimilation of new MetOp data IASI is expected to have similar impact as AIRS, but oper! Ensemble prediction system(s) already available (but underused), more data soon (TIGGE) Re-forecast datasets in development, real potential has to be established

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 NO SAT NO R/S FULL SYSTEM Impact of different observation types Northern hemisphere Southern hemisphere Forecast range (days) Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height (Mean over two summer and two winter months)

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 Satellite data provide robustness to the global numerical forecasts (forecast busts are much reduced) NO SAT FULL SYSTEM NO RADIOSONDES NO SAT FULL SYSTEM NO RADIOSONDES SUMMER WINTER

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006 HIRS Jacobians (all channels) AIRS Jacobians (1/10 th of channels) Higher Spectral Resolution from Advanced Sounders Higher vertical resolution and better accuracy a lot of data to handle

GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, August 2006

Research - Operations - Demonstrations Transition from research to operations: Relatively easy to achieve because of close link between OD and RD Data availability from research vs. operational satellites? Possible demonstration projects: Data denial experiments? Assess difference in decision-making process / benefits under 2 scenarios: control: no forecast information vs. exp: with forecast information