Geohazards Supersites A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research (1) University of Miami (2) ESA CEOS action DI-09-01a_4 GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2)

Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data! Outline: What are Geohazard Supersites Benefits Achievements/ Haiti examples Challenges Expectations from CEOS Geohazards Supersites

What are the Geohazard Supersites? -GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical processes causing geohazards (earthquakes and volcanoes). -Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS, complete data sets!) -Data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies. disaster mitigation

Which are the Geohazard Supersites? -Earthquake Supersites: Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul -Volcano Supersites: Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius -Event Supersites: Haiti (Hispaniola), Chile Wenchuan

30 year earthquake probability for Supersites: - Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, fatalities) - Istanbul: 62% for M6.7 with ~3000 fatalities - Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a M7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles) -Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M9.0 ~80% probability for M7.0 event with 3000 fatalities in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years Why is collaboration required?

Benefits new applications justifying the need for new satellite resources user requirements for advanced observation systems (combination of satellite and ground) better science of geohazards improve volcano and earthquake monitoring direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking). decade-long multi-satellite data readily available (digital world heritage for Earth Observation). coordination of SAR observation systems (e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake) For society: For satellite operators:

Space Agencies (CEOS) In-situ data providers JAXA CSA ESA DLR … Steering Group (Data Provider members) Research Institutions (Data User members) Supersite Office (Unavco) Science Community (Geohazard CoP) Governance Structure of Consortium Point of contact (1 per Supersite) Scientific Advisory Committee Chair Vice Chair GEO task leadership Legend: Election Day to day business

Science Objectives For a given Supersite: -interseismic deformation earthquake potential. -Daily to sub-daily SAR observations: ALOS:2 images/44 days TSX: 2 images/11 days RSAT-2: 2 images/24 days CSM: 2 images/4 days Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days Sentinel: 2 images/12 days more satellites ultraprecise measurements (1 mm) more chances for rapid interferograms virtual constellation for ground deformation high-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)

Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years. Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and Tremor (ETS) Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle

1923 Great Kanto earthquake Interseismic deformation fault slip rates, earthquake potential Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples 30 year earthquake probability: 35% for shaking associated with a M7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, fatalities) Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo M7.9, 140,000 fatalities RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?

InSAR, GPS and seismic new information on stress relaxation and transfer Benefits: better understand large continental earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years: isolated event? promote data sharing in China (GPS, seismic, SAR). capacity building through data access multiple PhD thesis. Shen et al., 2009 Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan

Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii SE flank time series Deformation due to arrival of new magma forecast activity Resolve flank deformation need daily SAR! TerraSAR-X data from Supersites 1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Cyberinfrastructure developed: single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting simultaneous large-scale data access White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP ) Support from in-situ data provider ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes, natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for Japan, Western US) DLR data arriving Radarsat-2 tasked 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV) Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration Achievements

ALOS-PalSAR data provided day after image acquisition Provided critical information on rupture extend. Reassurance to population, rescue organizations U Cornell civil engineers uped seismic safety standards. Haiti meeting organized in Miami prior to UN donors Conference (relocation of Port-au-Prince put to rest) The Haiti example

Septentrional fault: GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate Last earthquake about 1230 A.D. (8 m displacement accumulated) magnitude overdue! seismic hazard very high in Dominican Republic! minimal seismic network (2 people) USGS open file report Next: Hispaniola Supersite Hispaniola Seismic Hazard

USGS open file report Goal: to better estimate seismic hazard in Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people) How? Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain accumulation along Septentrional fault. Space data: TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1 need Cosmo-Skymed and Radarsat-2. In-situ data: Coordination with planned GPS network Results in 2 years!. Expected signal, 1 cm/yr Next: Hispaniola Supersite

ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event Supersites). Radarsat-1,2 data provision Cosmo-Skymed unclear no event Supersites established for Iceland volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data available through Natural Laboratory) Challenges

Expectations from CEOS Plenary Review of White Paper by Space Agencies Seek positive response to data request Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR through regular proposals) Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase). Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

Data request (White Paper Supplement) As soon as possible

. Data request (White Paper Supplement) 1 st semester nd semester 2011

Expectations from CEOS Plenary Review of White Paper by Space Agencies Seek positive response to data request Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR through regular proposals) Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase). Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

Thank you!