Towards the Cooperation in Central Asia via Energy Saving and Renewable Energy Integrating Central Asia into the World Economy: The Role of Energy and Transport Infrastructure Washington, October, 2007 Kanat Baigarin, Dr. Climate Change Co-ordination Centre

General Information: Some regional organizations and Program in Central Asia OCAC (CA Cooperation): KZ,KR,RU,TJ, UZ OCAREC (CA Regional Economical Cooperation): AZ,CHI,KZ,KR,MO,TJ,UZ CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) OEC (Economical Cooperation): AF,AZ,IR,KZ,KR,PA,TJ,TU,TRK,UZ EEC (Euro-asian economical community): BE,KZ,RK,RU,TJ,+UZ ShOC (Shanghai organization for Cooperation): CH,KZ,RK,RU,TJ,UZ UEA (Unified Economical Area): BE,KZ,RU,UK SPECA (Special UN Program for CA Economy): AF,AZ,KZ,RK,TJ,TRK,UZ

General Information: Review of CA States participation in Regional cooperation StatesOCACCARECCISOECEECShOCUEASPECA Kazakhstan XXXXXXXX Kyrgyzstan XXXXXXX Tajikistan XXXXXXX Turkmenistan XXXX Uzbekistan XXXXXX

General Information: Map of Central Asia

Kazakhstan: Export-Import Priorities Exports:$35.55 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Exports - commodities: oil and oil products 58%, ferrous metals 24%, chemicals 5%, machinery 3%, grain, wool, meat, coal (2001) Exports - partners: Germany 12.4%, Russia 11.6%, China 10.9%, Italy 10.5%, France 7.4%, Romania 4.9% (2006) Imports: $22 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment 41%, metal products 28%, foodstuffs 8% (2001) Imports - partners: Russia 36.7%, China 19.5%, Germany 7.4% (2006)

Uzbekistan: Export-Import Priorities Exports: $5.51 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Exports - commodities: cotton, gold, energy products, mineral fertilizers, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, textiles, food products, machinery, automobiles Exports - partners: Russia 23.9%, Poland 11.8%, China 10.5%, Turkey 7.5%, Kazakhstan 6%, Ukraine 4.7%, Bangladesh 4.4% (2006) Imports: $3.99 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, foodstuffs, chemicals, ferrous and non-ferrous metals Imports - partners: Russia 27.8%, South Korea 15.6%, China 10.4%, Kazakhstan 7.3%, Germany 7.1%, Ukraine 4.8%, Turkey 4.5% (2006)

Turkmenistan: Export-Import Priorities Exports: $5.421 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Exports - commodities: gas, crude oil, petrochemicals, cotton fiber, textiles Exports - partners: Ukraine 47.2%, Iran 16.3%, Azerbaijan 4.3% (2006) Imports: $3.936 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, chemicals, foodstuffs Imports - partners: UAE 13.7%, Azerbaijan 11.8%, Turkey 9.9%, Ukraine 8.1%, Russia 8%, Germany 6.9%, Iran 6.7%, China 5.7% (2006)

Kyrgyzstan: Export-Import Priorities Exports: $701.8 million f.o.b. (2006 est.) Exports - commodities: cotton, wool, meat, tobacco; gold, mercury, uranium, natural gas, hydropower; machinery; shoes Exports - partners: UAE 35.7%, Russia 20.2%, Kazakhstan 13%, China 11.7% (2006) Imports: $1.177 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Imports - commodities: oil and gas, machinery and equipment, chemicals, foodstuffs Imports - partners: China 56.8%, Russia 15.1%, Kazakhstan 8.1% (2006)

Tajikistan: Export-Import Priorities Exports: $1.16 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Exports - commodities: aluminum, electricity, cotton, fruits, vegetable oil, textiles Exports - partners: Norway 13.9%, Russia 13%, Turkey 12.2%, Uzbekistan 9.4%, US 6.4%, Italy 5.3%, Iran 5.2%, Greece 4.2% (2006) Imports: $1.513 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) Imports - commodities: electricity, petroleum products, aluminum oxide, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs Imports - partners: Russia 21.2%, China 17.2%, Kazakhstan 10.6%, Uzbekistan 9.6%, Azerbaijan 7.3%, Ukraine 5.2%, Turkey 4% (2006)

General Information: StatesPopulati on RuralGDP(PPP)/ GDP(ExR) GDP/capita (PPP) Power Production/Co nsumption Intensity CO 2 GDP Rate Population bellow poverty Million Bln.$$Bln.kWhKg/ $1000 % % Kazakhstan 15.36,9143.4/ /56610,619 Kyrgyzstan 5,33,3710.7/ /6.83,22,740 Tajikistan 7,074,89.5/ / ,0764 Turkmenistan 5,12,642.8/ /96658 Uzbekistan 27,816,355.7/ / Total60.64o250/ mln

General capacity – 18,190 МW; The Northern zone -13,130 MW The Western energy zone - 2,070 MW The Southern Energy Zone-2,990 MW Thermal gas-turbine and steam-to-gas stations – 395 MW (2%); Hydraulic power stations 2230 MВт (12%) Thermal steam-power plants that use organic fuel – 15,565 MW (86%); Kazakhstan The structure of power plants installed capacity in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhstan has a high potential for energy saving: A weighted energy consumption for production of some energy intensive products: Kazakhstan the United States copper 1,442 kWh/tons 300 kWh/tons rolled iron 190 kWh/tons 23 kWh/tons steel 650 kWh/tons 152 kWh/tons aluminum 670 kWh/tons 240 kWh/tons

Wind power potential estimates -a total capacity of 2,000 МW(500MW up to 2030) Attractiveness of these projects: immediate proximity to the existing power lines; high level of demand for energy; especially good conditions in the area of the Djungar Gates and the Shelek Corridor in the Almaty Oblast

Wind potential in North Kazakhstan Wind potential in North Kazakhstan Isovents of annual average wind speed for North Kazakhstan based on the period (Wind Energy in Kazakhstan, part1:Market Development Study,1998)

Example- Pilot Wind PS-5MW in Djungar Gates The Kazakhstan / UNDP/GEF Project «On Overcoming Barriers to Development of Wind Power Engineering in Kazakhstan» ( ), GEF possible grant for construction of a WPS-5 MW $ US 1,000,000 Pre-feasibility completed. Almatyautomatica JSC completed work on installation of a 500 kW wind power station in the Druzhba Railway Station area. Supported from the Government of Kazakhstan. Need to develop legislative documents ( privileges and taxes) to implement the Project and to promote RE Proposed as JI/CDM project: total project cost : US $ 5.2 million Annual Emission Reductions- 21,211t CO2 ERs Eligible for CDM (2004 –2012) 190,899 t CO2 ERs Eligible for JI( ) 106,055 t CO2

Instalation of DjungarWPS-500kW by JSC AlmatyAvtomatika

Hydro power potential estimates at 170TWh/yr C onstruction of 450 small hydropower plants of a total capacity of 2,500 МW with production of 11 TWh/year At present the country use about 8 TWh/year. The preference - construction of new ( Mainak HPP-300MW and Kerbulak HPP-500MW); construction and also rehabilitation of small and middle-size HPPs which are economically wise. The Almaty Oblast – the best perspective for development of small HPPs ( but dependent on large energy imports from other regions ) Current delivery system for baseline estimation (displacement of fossil fuel fired plants)

The Bartogay hydropower site