Political systems in the Middle East An overview

Some working definitions Democratic regime Leadership: Key decision-makers elected through fair and regular elections Civil liberties: robust protection for citizens Authoritarian regime Key political leadership gains power through means other than fair and regular elections (consolidation of authority). Little protection for citizens’ civil liberties (little tolerance of opposition) Two main types: Republics and monarchies Note that many authoritarian regimes have the institutional trappings of democracy…

Regime classifications in the MENA using traditional schema Democratic systems Authoritarian systems Turkey Israel Lebanon (Iraq) Republics Monarchies Algeria Egypt Syria Yemen Tunisia Libya Iran* Oman UAE Kuwait Jordan Qatar Saudi Arabia Morocco (Palestinian Auth.)

“Freedom” in 2009* “Free” “Partly Free” “Not Free” Israel Turkey UAE Yemen Lebanon Bahrain Jordan Kuwait Morocco UAE Libya Egypt Iraq Iran Algeria Tunisia Qatar Oman Syria Palestinian Auth. Saudi Arabia *As measured by Freedom House in two main areas: political representation and civil liberties.

Complicating the categories: some points to remember

#1 The categories don’t tell the whole story (or even most of it) (They are “ideal types”)

A. Democracies but not fully Israel EIU: “flawed democracy” (faulted for civil liberties: 5.29 out of 10) Influence of the military & religious authorities in politics, treatment of non-Jewish citizens and secular populations Turkey EIU: “hybrid regime” (faulted for political participation, political culture, civil liberties) Influence of military in politics (changing?), treatment of dissidents, especially Kurds Lebanon EIU: “hybrid regime” (faulted for functioning of government) Consociation system and problems with the National Pact Influence of Syria The civil war, 1975-1991 EIU = Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2008.

B. “Republics” or “monarchies”? (family-run regimes) Gamal Mubarak, the next president of Egypt? President Bashar al-Assad of Syria

C. Some monarchies have (often troublesome) parliaments Jordan King (Abdullah II) Can dissolve Parliament Rule by decree Appoint PM Approve Legislation Parliament 40-person Senate (appointed) 80-person chamber of deputies (universal suffrage) Prime Minister & Council of Ministers (appointed by king) Hashemite Family

Other monarchies Kuwait Bahrain Morocco Al-Sabah Family (emir), 50-member National Assembly Limited popular vote (only about 15 percent of Kuwait’s 900,000 citizens) Bahrain Al-Khalifa family (Sunni minority) National Assembly since 2002 Morocco Alaouite Dynasty and ruling family Two-chamber Parliament (with real powers) King Mohammad VI of Morocco

D. Where to put Iran? A dualistic system President * 4-year terms (max. 2) Supreme Leader (faqih/rahbar) Cabinet Council of Guardians 12 members Can veto Majlis legislation Expediency Council (mediates disputes between Majlis & Guardian Council) Parliament (Majlis) Elected every 4 years 293 members Assembly of Experts * 86 clerics Security Forces Electorate Judiciary * The Iranian Constitution was first passed in 1979 and revised in 1989. In addition, some of the government institutions presented here were created after 1982. This slide presents the current (2008) structure of the government.

E. What about women?

The time factor: in most cases these regime types are recent #2 The time factor: in most cases these regime types are recent

Regime categorizations in the MENA in earlier years

MENA regimes in earlier years, a sampling Some of Iraq’s earlier leaders…

Regimes in earlier years Turkey: authoritarian one-party state, 1923-late 1940s Egypt: constitutional monarchy, 1923-1952

#3. The importance of external players and forces in shaping regime type Colonialism and imperialism U.S. and European interventions Cold War and Gulf Wars Israel (and the Lebanon wars) Arab nationalism and Egypt The European Union Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq in his 1953 trial, which took place after the CIA-assisted coup.

#4. Who are the real political players (and how do they operate) #4. Who are the real political players (and how do they operate)? Comparisons and similarities across regime types The military Religious groups and movements Social players (tribes, clans, families, landlords, ethnic groups, etc) External players (the U.S., Israel, Syria, al Qaida, etc)

Nonetheless, some big questions Why so many monarchies? Why so little democracy? How to understand the role(s) of women in politics and power? The power and limitations of religion in politics Technology and the power (and limitations) of ordinary people. How are ordinary people shaping politics in ways we do not necessarily see?