ENERGY SECURITY Sharif University June 1st 2014 Thanks to Sami Andoura Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute for many input

What to know to tackle energy security Geology – the stone age did not end by lack of stone !…. Geography - always look at maps Technology –It changes, but speed is unknown? Historical evolution –long memories…. Demography and social acceptance / environment Geopolitics – International law -Economics …and understand visions, and….. keep common sense

Some Historical points Prehistory: domestic fires 800 to 400,000 years ago Silk road and the trans African route until 15 th century. The British Empire: watch the map The great game – capital Kashgar War in Europe and then “Coal and steel pact” The coal story, then oil, gas, LNG, GTL,…. The path to energy efficiency The new great game –revival of the silk road? A new world…

SILK ROAD – Is it back on the map? Why did the roman empire collapse ? Why did the silk road collapse in the 15 th century?

SUPPLY SECURITY – British Empire geostrategic view Straight of Malacca Cape Town Gibraltar Panama Hong Kong Kashgar Straight of Magellan Channel Aden & Ormuz Suez

World Oil Transit Chokepoints

CRUDE OIL FLOW

The Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans is the shortest sea route between the Middle East and growing Asian markets. More than 15 million bbl/d, no wander why China is worried about Malacca!

Increased oil exports from the Caspian Sea region make the Bosporus Straits one of the busiest and most dangerous chokepoints in the world supplying Western and Southern Europe.

The energy supply problem is not going to disappear any time soon …. More than 9 billion customers thirsty for energy by 2050!

How is Iran Energy triangle ? How is it managed?

What will be the price target for Iranian gas? – remember the GTL gas price negotiation? The train might not come back soon to the station… not only for GTL!

Dilemma on energy security Self sufficiency Inter dependency Bilateral Agreements FOR IMPORT & EXPORT

Would you like to see a similar map for ME and Central Asia?

No one expected such an event. Back in 2005, regasification terminals were being planned on US West Coast

What if coal become cleaner? What if RES does not take off ? What about public acceptance in Europe on nuclear ?

Iran share? What if there is also in Europe an unconventional revolution?

What will be Iranian share? – it missed the 2015 opportunity!

What is Iran view?

But, how far, how fast will unconventional go?

IRAN and export Waste Energy efficiency Cost of development Access to technology Deal with neighbours Some self sufficiency… but not only Which alliances? Increasingly relevant- not only in Iran and, … what about other natural resources….

Questions on energy security in Iran Why so much oil produced and so little capacity to refine –no flexibility no quality? Why so much energy (and water) wasted? Could there be in this region a local version of the “1950’s coal and steel pact”? why not a regional interconnection for gas, electricity, water and products? More interdependency, less risk of serious conflicts, more security ? Promote a regional peak shaving mechanism? Move away from a power game based on the illusion of self sufficiency to a regional collective better economic development? “East or West” choice or “Region and East and West and South” alliance? A no brainer! Energy, yes but not only: water, technology, efficiency, health, other raw material,… SELF SUFFICIENCY: A MYTH, even Maoists are moving away from the concept of “rely on your own forces”. INTER DEPENDENCY : THE BEST PATH TO SECURITY and lower cost

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