Report to the Interagency Task Force of W G 1 on Climate and Disasters Palais des Nations, 10 to 11 April 2003 Convener of WG 1 WMO

A.Inauguration of CIIFEN B.El Nino Developments and Outlooks C.Merging databases (Climate and Disasters) D.Future Activities Activities

Inauguration of CIIFEN 9 to 10 January 2003 Interim Director, Jose Luis Santos Plan for activities in 2003 and 2004

CIIFEN - Guayaquil 1 st meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April 1 st meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April Regional Climate Data Rescue and Management Seminar Regional Climate Data Rescue and Management Seminar Develop plans to complete databases and manage the data Develop plans to complete databases and manage the data 23 countries participating 23 countries participating Goal Goal Develop plans Develop plans Establish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activities Establish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activities

2 nd Meeting Climate Outlook Forum July countries – climate predictions 12 countries – climate predictions Goal Goal Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate prediction Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate prediction Downscale Global Circulation Model output Downscale Global Circulation Model output

El- Ni ñ o Developments 1. El-Ni ñ o weakening rapidly – expected to move to neutral conditions by May El-Ni ñ o Outlooks issued in January 2003 April Will continue to issue during neutral phase

Merging Databases (climate and disasters) 1. WG 1 & 3 have discussed 2. Briefing provided to WG-3 of activities 3. WG-1 is proceeding with pilot project in Chile

Pilot Project 1. Chile Met Service will provide estimate of costs 2. Secure funding necessary 3. Sort disaster database in Chile for floods only 4. Define parameters to sort climate database 5. Perform database sort and merge

Goal of pilot and what can be accomplished 1. Determine if databases in developing countries are adequate to provide useable data and results 2. Determine sort criteria for both climate and disaster databases 3. Proof of concept to implement in other countries

Proposed Future Activities for WG-1 Continue El-Ni ñ o Outlooks Continue El-Ni ñ o Outlooks Complete pilot study in Chile & implement results Complete pilot study in Chile & implement results Begin development of Climate Alert System Begin development of Climate Alert System Develop Regional map of disasters by climate extremes Develop Regional map of disasters by climate extremes

Draft workplan 2003 for the ISDR-TF WG1 on Climate and Disasters AreaActions/OutputsTimetable Continuing issuing the El Nino outlooks Routine monitoring of the ENSO and issuing routine reports ON-GOING Begin developing a system in concert with WMO on climate anomalies called the CLIMATE ALERT SYSTEM Project initiation has been completed by WMO CCl. An expert team has been established. Coordination with other agencies is now required Completed Meeting planned for late 2003 By 2004 In conjunction with WG3, continue the merging of database tasks as defined in May 2002 meeting Climate databases sorted by parameter limits in Chile. Limits need to be defined for disasters Contact Chile to begin activities. Complete 3 months after disasters limits defined. November 2003 Begin defining climate related disasters associated with climate extremes that can tie into number 2 above Action by WG-3 to define geographical and parameter based disasters. November 2003