Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola, Peter A. Staehr,

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Presentation transcript:

Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola, Peter A. Staehr, Evelyn Gaiser, Ian Jones, Kathleen Weathers, Gesa Weyhenmeyer, Charles Chiu review/case studies/conceptual model

Episodic pulse event (EPE) Definition A sudden and short-lived change in the magnitude of a physical, chemical or biological parameter in a lake that is distinct from previous background levels.

A. Episodic flood events B. Episodic mixing events C. Episodic stratification events PRIMARY DRIVERS - METEROLOGICAL

IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological

IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological

IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological Ecological regime shift shift to more persistent, alternative state

SiteArea ha Max depth m Trophic status Blelham UK Eu Slotssø Denmark 228.0Eu L. Leane Ireland Meso-eu Yuan Yang L. Taiwan 44.5Oligo L. Annie USA Oligo L. Pääjärvi Finland Oligo-meso Annie Slotsso Paajarvi Yuan Yang Leane Blelham

Slotto, Denmark, 2006 Leane, Ireland,1997

Blelham Tarn, 2006 YYL, 2005

Tropical storm Fay, Lake Annie, 2008

high Resilience low low Severity high LOW MED HIGH RISK

Projected changes in EPEs Increase in severity Increase in frequency Increase in both severity and frequency Impact of projected climate change

Projected changes in EPEs Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right Increase in frequency Increase in both severity and frequency Impact of projected climate change

Projected changes in EPEs Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards Increase in both severity and frequency Impact of projected climate change

Projected changes in EPEs Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards Increase in both severity and frequency – contracts + shifts to right Impact of projected climate change

(IPCC Synthesis report, 2001) CO 2 emissions peak CO 2 stabilisation Temperature stabilisation Today 1000 yrs