1. Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director Northeast Regional Climate Center

2. STEP 4: High-resolution regional climate projections Temp from global climate modelTemperature from downscaling

3. Seasonal Projections Temperature Precipitation

4. 16% 3% 23% 31% 15% 67% 20% Regional Variation in Heavy Rain

5. Extreme Event Frequency

6. Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2000

7. Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow

8. Drought SHORT MEDIUM LONG

9. Storms

10. Sea Level Rise The IPCC model-based approach local land subsidence local relative ocean height global thermal expansion meltwater

11. Sea Level Rise The rapid ice melt scenario replaces the model based meltwater term with sea level rise rates (43 +/- 4 in/century) observed during paleoclimate analogues

12. Questions?

13. STEP ONE: Future Emissions from Human Activities A1fi (higher) continued dependence on fossil fuels with material-intensive economy, ~970ppm by 2100 B1 (lower) shift to alternative energy sources with service & information- focused economy ~550ppm at 2100

14. STEP TWO: Global Climate Modeling “Backcast” to compare historical simulations with observed climate. “Forecast” to develop future projections of changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events, etc. 3 different climate models

15. STEP 3: Global Temperature Change Likely range: 1.1 o C to 6.4 o C 2 o F to 11.5 o F