1 The NOAA Climate Test Bed: Interim Meeting (Feb 23, 2007)

2 Review CTB Reply to SAB and Incorporate Purpose and Expected Outcome of Interim Meeting Purpose  To provide an oral interim report on CTB progress with emphasis on issues that require SAB advice  To initiate planning for the 3rd Science Advisory Board meeting Expected Outcome  CTB written Interim Progress Report for SAB  Tentative Plans for 3 rd CTB Science Advisory Board Meeting.

3 Review CTB Reply to SAB and Incorporate Background Materials “ CTB Response to SAB Recommendations ” (Sep 2006) - Handout “ Tracking CTB Tasks ” (current) - Handout  TPT activities  Allocated FTEs  FY07 Experiments CTB “ Science Plan and Implementation Strategy ” (Jan 07) – posted on webpage CTB MME Strategy “ White Paper ” (Jan 07) – posted on webpage Interim Meeting PowerPoints (Feb 07) – to be posted on webpagehttp://

4 Review CTB Reply to SAB and Incorporate Agenda CTB Issues (Higgins) – 10 min CTB Progress and Tracking CTB Tasks (Gelman) – 10 min CFS Issues / Limitations / Risks (Pan) – 10 min Future Role of the CST and TPT’s (Schubert) – 10 min Purpose and Progress of FY07 Experiments (Schubert and Pan) – 10 min Transition Project Team Reports MME (Saha) – 10 min CFS Testing and Assessment (Schemm & Moorthi) – 10 min Climate Forecast Products and Services (O’Lenic) – 10 min Discussion on planning for 3 rd SAB Meeting (Higgins) – 30 min SAB input on date / time, venue, agenda Wrap-up (Higgins) – 10 min Writing assignments for Interim Report to SAB

5 CTB Request for SAB Advice on Issues (Higgins)

Science Priorities How can CTB improve its science plan and implementation strategy? Has the CTB developed an effective MME implementation strategy? - How do we address MME risks? Does the CTB have the appropriate balance between MME and CFS activities? - How can we accelerate upgrades to CFS next and CFS next+1 ? Community Involvement Are CTB interactions with intermediaries (e.g. RISAs, ARCs) developing appropriately? Is there an appropriate balance between in-house transition work and external research? Has the CTB provided the SAB with sufficient details on the allocation of CTB resources? CTB Solicits SAB Advice on the Following Issues

Computing and Data Access Does the CTB Data Policy meet the needs of the community? SAB Structure and Meetings How can we improve communication and interactions between the CTB and the SAB? How should future SAB meetings be changed? Organized? Does the SAB recommend any changes to its membership? CTB Solicits SAB Advice on the Following Issues

Future Directions for CTB What weaknesses do we need to address? What opportunities are we missing that should be pursued? What impediments do we face when working with the external community? CTB Solicits SAB Advice on the Following Issues

9 Scientific Issues: MME Strategy

10 NCEP MME Strategy NCEP, through the CTB, is working with the climate community to develop a strategy for a MME Prediction System at NCEP: – –Anchored by the CFS – –IMME: CFS + International operational centers that have required hindcast data sets (UKMO, Meteo-France, ECMWF, BMRC, BCC) – –NMME: national centers (GFDL, NASA, NCAR) developing 1-tier coupled models Steps toward an operational MME: – –CFS/CFS next – –Preliminary skill evaluation of IMME and NMME members – –Assembly of full reforecast data sets from NMME contributors – –Consolidate the IMME and NMME products into a single operational MME Prediction System

11 Risks on MME System Insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets Lack of concept of operations – –MOUs needed with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models (US?) and real time forecast data (International and US) – –Where NCAR and NASA have their own time line on model development CTB resource limitations for – –Skill assessments – –Post-processing, calibration and consolidation product – –Preparation for operations Data access and reliability Testing

12 Scientific Issues: CFS - Next

The NCEP Climate Forecast System became operational in August 2004 ocean-atmosphere-land Currently, two fully-coupled (ocean-atmosphere-land) 9-month forecasts are made every day The present CFS operational system is frozen Development work is underway at EMC to improve the CFS A new CFS implementation is anticipated in January 2010 CPO is a major stakeholder. Our partnerships are key.

Three main components for the new CFS implementation: Fully Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Cryosphere ModelFully Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Cryosphere Model CFS Reanalysis ( )CFS Reanalysis ( ) CFS Retrospective Forecasts ( )CFS Retrospective Forecasts ( ) Note: Current budget plans are insufficient to sustain CFS upgrade schedule.

15 Problem Areas 1.Reanalysis effort is out of hide. Need resources for : (i) use of radiance data from old satellites (60 of them); (ii) coupler and 3DVAR system for the new ocean model. 2. Computing resources for reanalysis are not available yet. 3. Re-forecast computing resources depend on the availability of the next operational computing in Limited human resources to make and diagnose runs.

16 CTB Progress and Tracking CTB Tasks (Gelman)

17 SAB Advice and CTB Actions Science Priorities: SAB Advice: That the CTB develop a more detailed and coordinated S&IP. CTB Action: A revised SP&IS [(MME; CFS Improvements; Climate Forecast Products] has been completed, vetted, and posted on the CTB webpage. SAB Advice: That CTB elevate a MME effort to the highest priority. CTB Action: The CTB organized an MME Team (Saha) and developed a “White Paper” that details the MME Strategy (posted on the CTB website) SAB Advice: That CTB should have an FY08 milestone for having in place at least a 4- model MME using CFS, GFDL, GMAO, and NCAR models. CTB Action: The MME strategy includes both NMME and IMME activities. The FY08 milestone may involve models other than those suggested by the SAB.

18 SAB Advice and CTB Actions Community Involvement SAB Advice: That the allocation of existing resources (AO) be modified to support the recommended priority in MME forecasting. CTB Action: The CTB FY08 AO has the following 4 SPA ’ s: 1) Evaluation of MME Forecasts; 2) CFS Improvements; 3) Drought Prediction; 4) Operational Drought Forecast Products / NIDIS. SAB Advice:That the CTB provide the SAB with details on allocation of CTB resources CTB Action:Instituted formal tracking of all CTB Projects (Gelman) and established 3 Transition Project Teams (MME-Saha; CFS Testing and Assessment – Schemm and Moorthi; Climate Forecast Products – O ’ Lenic) SAB Advice:That the CTB provide feedback on information that intermediaries would like to see. CTB Action:Expanded CTB interactions with RISA ’ s, ARCs during FY07 (O ’ Lenic) Provided a response to the RISA wish list (Redmond- Mo)

19 SAB Advice and CTB Actions Computing and Data Access SAB Advice: That CTB develop a coherent strategy for the allocation, monitoring, administration and evaluation of the shared computing facility. CTB Action:The CTB consults with the NCEP Computing Oversight Board on (mgmt of CTB R&D computer), works with the CST Co-Chairs (quarterly progress reports), and tracks CTB experiments. SAB Advice: That the CTB review the needs of the stakeholder communities to determine if the data policy adequately addresses those needs. CTB Action: CTB is working with NCEP and CPO on an “ Operations to Research ” concept that supports improved community access to models and data, full code documentation, a helpdesk facility, and verification and assimilation data bases that accelerate R2O with CFS.

20 SAB Advice and CTB Actions SAB Structure and Meetings SAB Advice: That CTB focus future SAB meetings on scientific issues facing the CTB CTB Action: The next SAB meeting will include at least 1/2 day on the internal science selection decisions and why (CST co-chairs), and science strategy and accomplishments of each TPT (TPT Chairs). SAB Advice:That communication and interaction between the CTB and the SAB be enhanced regarding the science priorities and SAB recommendations. CTB Action:Interim progress reports on CTB actions (Feb 07). SAB to determine the agenda and timing of the full 3 rd CTB SAB meeting. A list of scientific issues will be provided to the SAB in advance.

21 CTB FY07 BUDGET

22 CFS Issues / Limitations / Risks (Pan)

23 Progress of the next CFS 1.We have made extensive runs of the current and pending GFS coupled with MOM3 2.We have made many runs of the MOM4 using old coupler 3.We are working on the efficient coupling codes for the next CFS 4.We are getting started with the next CFS reanalysis

24 Current issues for the Next CFS 1.We have no support for the reanalysis effort and must do it out of hide. Use of radiance for old satellite radiance, getting the coupler for the new ocean model, getting a 3DVAR system for the new ocean model are some of the major hurdles 2.Computing resources needed to do the reanalysis are not there yet. 3.Re-forecast resource depends on the availability of the next operational computing in We have a very small team and will need a lot more human resource to do the actual runs

25 Issues 1.Can the CTB help with the computing issues to help us meet our goal? 2.Can the CTB help with the monitoring issues to ensure the quality of the next re-analysis for the CFS?

26 Proposal 1.The CFS test and diagnosis TPT team will join the EMC CFS team in to accelerate the next CFS reanalysis and reforecast effort 2.Part of the CTB computing resource (50%) be devoted in to accelerate the next CFS reanalysis and reforecast effort

The CTB Climate Science Team and the Transition Project Teams (Schubert)

28 CST Terms of Reference The CST should be an integral part of the CTB on a day-to-day basis. The CST will: Guide CTB activities at the working level; Work with the TPTs to rank, monitor and track CTB experiments aligned with CTB objectives and resources; Provide advice on CTB contributions to the development path for NOAAs operational climate forecast systems and products; Monitor and evaluate results of CTB activities; Make recommendations to the CTB Director on computing resource usage priorities, and computing access policies; and Meet at least quarterly.

29 CST Membership The CST will be composed of technical experts from NOAA organizations (e.g. CPC, EMC, CDC, GFDL) and other active Numerical Forecast Centers in the CTB (e.g. IRI, NCAR, NASA, COLA) As a Team, the CST will have broad experience in the climate forecast problem, modeling issues, and product generation. In view of their vital role in the CTB, EMC and CPC are each given three permanent membership slots

30 CST Membership Renewal Recommendations for new members of the CST can be made by the CTB Director, Deputy Directors, and current members of the CST. Membership is voted on by the CST, and approved by the OB. All members of the CST will have a three-year term. Members who have rotated out can, after a minimum of one year, be invited back on the team. All externally funded CTB project PIs are required to become a member of the CST CST members will choose Co-Chairs (one internal to NOAA and one external to NOAA) who will have two-year terms. The Co- Chairs will rotate among different CST members.

31 Current Membership and Proposed Rotation Lisa Goddard Oct 2008 Marty Hoerling Oct 2007 Ben Kirtman Oct 2009 John Roads Oct 2008 Siegfried Schubert Oct 2009 (current cochair) Marina Timofeyeva Oct 2007 (Ex Officio) Jiayu Zhou Oct 2007 (Ex Officio) New Members (Externally-funded PIs) – –Tim Delsole – –Michael Fox-Rabinovitz – –Michael McPhadden EMC and CPC members – –Hua-Lu Pan (current cochair) – –Arun Kumar – –Kingtse Mo – –Jae Schemm – –Shrinivas Moorthi – –Ken Mitchell – –Suranjana Saha

32 Evolution of the CST What about role of TPT chairs in CST?What about role of TPT chairs in CST? Internal PI membership?Internal PI membership? Membership cap?Membership cap? Transition to become fully PI-based?Transition to become fully PI-based? Future of TPTs?Future of TPTs? I. Climate Modeling Team - Jae Schemm and Shrinivas Moorthi –Climate Model Development Group – Shrinivas Moorthi –Climate Model Assessment Group - Jae Schemm –Ocean Data Assimilation Group - Dave Behringer –Land Data Assimilation Group - Ken Mitchel II. The Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Team - Suru Saha –MME Group - Suru Saha –Consolidation Group - Huug van den Dool –Verification of CFS Products Group - Arun Kumar III. The Climate Forecast Products Team - Ed Olenic –Drought Group –Climate Forecast products Group

33 Transition Project Team Reports – – MME (Saha) – – CFS Testing and Assessment (Schemm & Moorthi) – –Climate Forecast Products and Services (O’Lenic)

34 3 rd CTB SAB Meeting When? – –August 2007?; Specific dates? Where? – –University of MD? Local Hotel? Other? Who? – –SAB (10), OB (7), CST (13), External PI’s (5), CTB Staff (40), other? What? – –Expanded version of todays agenda; emphasis on science results, science strategy and science issues – ½ day – –CTB FY08 AO Status – 30 min – –SAB meetings with CTB management, staff, OB, CST – ½ day – –SAB Executive session (s) – ½ day – –Preliminary SAB advice on CTB Issues -1hr – –What else? – –Overall Length – 2 days? Format: How should this CTB SAB meeting be organized?