1 icfi.com | 1 Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference Rawlings Miller, PhD May 19, 2014 Tools / Resources for Considering Climate.

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1 icfi.com | 1 Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference Rawlings Miller, PhD May 19, 2014 Tools / Resources for Considering Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment

2 icfi.com | 2 Tools/Resources  Challenge: Our systems are designed for a static environment – yet moving forward, stationarity will not hold true  Processes to identify important pathways of climate impacts on the built environment  Resources for understanding infrastructure sensitivities to climate- related hazards

3 icfi.com | 3 General Framework for Climate Assessments ExposureSensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Criticality

4 icfi.com | 4 Impacts on the Built Environment  Identify which elements in the built environment may be susceptible to what hazards potentially affected by climate change  Match time horizons  Consider non-climate drivers

5 icfi.com | 5 Conceptualize the System Sea level rise Changes in Storm Events Storm Surge Climate Drivers Hazards Impacts Changes in Precipitation Drought Increased Temperatures Warmer Temps / Heat Events Power outages (if duration is longer than backup generators capable of supporting) Switch failures Fixed line network Flooding of exchanges, manholes, and underground pits Mobile line network Higher High Tides Soil moisture decrease the stability in structures/ foundations Large fluctuations in wet/dry spells may cause cracks in foundation Periodic coastal flooding Flooding of exchanges, manholes, and underground pits Damage to infrastructure (transmission lines / towers) Power outages Potential loss of services Lightening disruption Increased Runoff / Heavy Precip. Changes in cloud cover /Increase in solar radiation Degrade cable coverings and lead to outages and service interruptions.

6 icfi.com | 6 Understanding Today’s Impacts Identify hazards of concern  Design standards  Damage functions  Early warning systems  Impacts observed during/after past events  Expert anecdotal evidence/understanding within the system  Drawing from analysis conducted at similar municipalities  Urban planning tools (zoning)  Hazard susceptibility maps  Old maps “Quantify” the identified hazards  Local National Weather Service office – records of past events  Newspaper clippings  Discussions with engineers, operators, etc.

7 icfi.com | 7 Examples to Identify Thresholds/ Relationships Pavement (design) Flooding of a 1- story house w/out basement (Damage Function)

8 icfi.com | 8 Considering Future Impacts Using the key thresholds/relationships, consider how the exposure to these thresholds/relationships may change in the future. Where can I easily access future climate information?

9 icfi.com | Impacts in the United States

10 icfi.com | Melillo et al., 2014

11 icfi.com | 11 icfi.com | User-friendly Climate Data Portals

12 icfi.com | 12 icfi.com |

13 icfi.com | 13 icfi.com | Example: DOT’s Gulf Coast Project, Phase 2

14 icfi.com | 14 icfi.com | In Sum, Considering Future Impacts  Use the projections to consider how to the identified hazards/ indicators may change in the future  Also consider are the non-climate stressors that dampen or increase the vulnerability to the hazard  Consider the planning horizon / infrastructure lifetime  Actionable in light of uncertainty