1. Presentation Title Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Sea Level Rise and Extreme Events Bangkok, October 2012

2. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Climate Change Projected to Cause Sea Levels to Rise Warmer seas will expand (IPCC 2007) –Likely effect 40-100 cm by 2100 Melting ice on land can also raise sea levels (IPCC 2007) Big concern is Greenland which could cause sea levels to rise several meters

3. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Primary Impact is Coastal Infrastructure Rising seas will inundate coastal infrastructure and coastal land – Primary loss is infrastructure Adaptations –Soft and dynamic ecosystems based responses –Move infrastructure inland –Build hard structures (walls) to protect –Raise structures

4. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Economic Analysis Comparing value of lost infrastructure (inundation) with cost of protection (sea walls), economic analysis suggests it is worthwhile protecting dense urban developments (Yohe et al 1996) Economic, environmental and social costs/benefits of rural lands will need to be examined; potential trade offs in protecting urban/rural land; equity issues Faster SLR, earlier adaptation needed and more frequent and more costly improvements

5. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Example: Location with High Economic Value Infrastructure/Low economic value lands Compare value lost from inundation to cost of sea walls Examine urban buildings, beaches, marshes, and mangroves Suggests worth protecting buildings and high valued beaches Not worth protecting low valued beaches, marshes, and mangroves if sea level rise over 0.6m

6. Singapore Urban SLR in 2100 (Ng and Mendelsohn 2005) SLR=0.2mSLR=0.5mSLR=0.9m Land Inundated (km sq) 4.09.717.0 Benefit of Protection (million USD) 3,8009,20029,100 Cost of Protection (million USD) 1698303

7. Beach Protection Singapore (Ng and Mendelsohn 2006) Sea Level Rise Scenario by 2100 Year of Action Years of Protection Benefit WTP (million USD) Benefit Travel Cost (million USD) Cost (million USD) 0.2m2080805,40081,2007 0.5m2060604,00060,8009 0.5m20806013,100199,30033 0.9m2020402,80043,1006 0.9m2060405,20079,20031 0.9m21004011,500175,00056

8. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Extreme Events Storms: tropical cyclones, extra tropical storms, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail Extremes: flooding, drought, heat waves, cold spells Lead to economic damages (USD) and deaths Climate change may exacerbate impacts

9. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Projecting Changes in Extreme Event Outcomes As GDP and populations increase, the damages from many extreme events will increase- more in harm’s way As income increases, deaths are likely to fall- society and people take precautions

10. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Asian Damages in 2010 and 2100 (million USD/yr)

11. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Asian Annual Deaths in 2010 and 2100

12. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Unclear how climate change will alter local storms Higher temperatures and precipitation will increase mean values Unclear how climate change will alter the distribution of precipitation and temperature around the new mean Some evidence that intensity of tropical cyclones will increase Projecting Climate Change Impact on Extreme Events

13. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Examine 4 climate models in 2100 Examine how climate scenarios affect tropical cyclones Calculate damage per cyclone Estimate change in damage Tropical Cyclones

14. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Change in Tropical Cyclone Power by Ocean Basin

15. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Estimate Climate Impacts Calculate future baseline damages (current climate) Calculate future damages with future climate Subtract baseline from future damages with future climate to get net climate impact

16. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Climate Change Damages in Asia From Tropical Cyclones in 2100 Billion USD/yr CNRMECHAMGFDLMIROC Damage (% GDP) 2.8 (0.14%) 23.9 (1.18%) 5.2 (0.25%) 51.3 (2.50%) Deaths (per million) 757 (0.15) -1436 (-0.29) -3356 (-0.67) 1162 (0.23)

17. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Increased Intensity Not clear that the frequency of tropical cyclones will change Some support for increasing intensity of largest storms Currently, 10% worst storms cause 90% of damage from tropical cyclones With climate change, 10% worst storms may cause 93% of damage

18. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Climate change increases frequency of high damage storms

19. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Conclusions SLR Moderate sea level rise is extremely likely but can be relatively cheaply adapted to over time Sea level rise from 2-5 meters, although less likely, would be more difficult to manage and would require a combination of defense and retreat

20. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Conclusions-Extreme Events Frequent small storms are reasonably easy to manage with early warning systems and moderate precautions (building codes, hard structures) Cat 4-5 tropical cyclones are more difficult –Costly to protect against powerful storm –Low benefit since they occur locally only once in 100 or 1000 years

21. Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action Extreme Events Continued Food aid has been a very successful adaptation to droughts reducing deaths dramatically Deaths from most extreme events are falling as countries get wealthier