China Development Research Foundation Beijing, July 2, 2012 1.

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Presentation transcript:

China Development Research Foundation Beijing, July 2,

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Excess Inequality (IDB, 2011) 3

Excess Poverty (IDB, 2011) 4

 Inequality in all Latin American countries has declined between (circa) 2000 and (circa) 2011  Decline continued through the global financial crisis in 2009  Inequality declined in LA while it rose in other regions 5

Gini coefficient – Household per capita income Unweighted averages Source: own estimates based on SEDLAC (CEDLAS and World Bank).

Gini coefficient – Household per capita income Unweighted averages Source: own estimates based on SEDLAC (CEDLAS and World Bank).

Poverty, growth and inequality Latin America, 4 USD PPP international poverty line Source: own estimates based on SEDLAC (CEDLAS and World Bank).

Source: Gasparini et al. (2012).

Change in Gini coefficient

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 Fast growing countries (Chile and Peru), slow growing countries (Brazil and Mexico) and countries recovering from crisis (Argentina and Venezuela)  Persistently high inequality countries (Brazil) and normally low inequality countries (Argentina)  Countries with left “populist” governments (Argentina), left social-democratic governments (e.g., Brazil, Chile) and center/center-right governments (e.g., Mexico and Peru) 12

 Decline in labor income inequality associated with a fall in the so-called premium to skills  Decomposition exercises reveal that the quantity effect was unequalizing in many countries (Paradox of progress in education) but the price effect (change in skill premium) was equalizing  Decline in non-labor income inequality associated with more generous and targeted cash transfers 13

 Not the same in all countries:  Relative demand of educated workers rose more slowly in the 2000’s ( several countries)  Relative supply of educated workers rose faster than demand in the 2000’s (Mexico)  Minimum wages, unions (Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela)  Reduction in unemployment/commodity boom  “Degraded” tertiary (Chile) 14

Annual change in skilled/unskilled conditional wage gap Latin America (16 countries) Source: Gasparini, Galiani, Cruces and Acosta (2011).

Annual changes in skilled/unskilled wage gap, and relative supplies Latin America (16 countries) Source: Gasparini, Galiani, Cruces and Acosta (2011).

More active labor policy  Minimum wage, unions, income policies Increase in real value of minimum wage ( )

Employment  Reduction in unemployment  Increase in female labor market participation (especially poor) Unemployment rate (Latin America)

 Ongoing project for 12 countries; results are available for 6  Standard Fiscal Incidence Analysis  Household surveys from around

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 Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress? Edited by Luis F. López-Calva and Nora Lustig, Brookings Institution and UNDP,  “Declining Inequality in Latin America: How Much, Since When and Why?,” Lustig, Lopez-Calva and Ortiz, Working Paper, Tulane University,  “The Rise and Fall of Income Inequality in Mexico: ,” Campos, Esquivel and Lustig, Working Paper, WIDER, January papers/2012/en_GB/wp / papers/2012/en_GB/wp /  “Recent trends in inequality in LA,” ppt presentation by Leonardo Gasparini, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid, May  “Taxes, transfers and income redistribution in Latin America,” Lustig, N. (c00rdinator),

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