1. NS4540 Winter Term 2018 Popular Opinion 11-2017
Oxford Analytica Latin America: Democracy may lose as delivery fails, November 28, 2017

2. Overview
Recent surveys suggest Latin America a region in which economic progress has been accompanied by increasing skepticism about the
Performance and
Advantages
Of democracy as a system of government
Rather than new trends – shows an acceleration of existing trends particularly regarding
Democracy and
Approval of governments

3. Economic Background I
Since the financial crisis, Latinobarometro’s indicators of subjective economic well-being have generally shown substantial improvement
At 44%the percentage of households whose income does not adequately cover their needs is down from 55% in But reaches
78% in Venezuela and
60% in Dominican Republic
At 41% fear of job loss is down from over 60% pre-crisis

4. Economic Background II
45% now identify as lower-class
Down from 58% in 2013
Increase from 36% to 42% for middle class
However over half of the population identifies as lower class in
Brazil
Venezuela,
El Salvador,
Chile and
Nicaragua
Presence of Chile, the region’s highest per-capita income country indicates political and social factors – a sense of inclusion – also weigh heavily in this self-classification
Also present in Bolivia with one of the lowest per capita incomes where 53% consider themselves middle-class

5. Economic Background III
Around the region impatience for faster economic progress
Only 25% think country is progressing -- ranging from
Brazil 6%
Bolivia 49% and
Nicaragua 58%
35% identify economic problems as their country’s principle problem followed by
Crime 20%
Corruption 10%
But with wide variations across countries
Impatience due to slow progress in reducing income inequity
For 75% of region’s inhabitants their country’s leading conflict is between rich and poor

6. Political Trends I
Surveys show abundant evidence of growing skepticism about democracy
View that democracy is preferable to any other form of government has dropped to 53%
Down from 61% in 2010 and
63% in 1997
Among major countries were it is the lowest are
Mexico 38%, down from 48% in 2016
Brazil 43% but up from 32% in 2016
Highest in
Venezuela 78%
Uruguay 70%
Ecuador 69%, and
Argentina 67%

7. Political Trends II
Medium commitment to democracy in Latin America is only 19% compared to 23% globally
Willingness to consider non-democratic options reaches 24% compared to 13% worldwide
Peru and Mexico highest at 28% and 27% respectively
Support for possible military government highest among those with least education
55% in Peru and
45% in Brazil
Suggests resolution of economic concerns is gaining urgency

8. Political Trends III Satisfaction with democracy
Has declined for four consecutive years to 30%, down from 39% in Lowest figures include
Brazil 13%
Peru 16%
Colombia 17% and
Mexico 18%
By comparison 56% EU citizens were satisfied

9. Political Trends IV
Low satisfaction related to perception of government for the few – rose from 61% in 2009 to 75% in Reached
97% Brazil
90% in Mexico
Highest where the perception of government for the few is also the least prevalent
Nicaragua 67&
Ecuador 66% and
Bolivia 57%

10. Political Trends V
Trust in political institutions – generally declined in recent years most notably in the case of government
Parliament and
Political parties
For parliament 22% down from 34% in 2009
Political parties 15% down from 24% in 2009
Trust in political parties only
7% Brazil
9% Mexico
Even in Chile relatively free from corruption scandals only 14%
Suggest populist outsiders more of a chance in winning upcoming elections in 2018

11. Venezuelan Paradox I
In addition to having the largest percentage of households with difficulties in covering their needs Venezuela is a country were most do not have enough to eat.
After Brazil it is also where the largest percentage identify as lower-class
Still approval of government increased from 20% in 2016 to 32% in just below regional average of 36%
Trust in government 31% is significantly above the regional average of 25%

12. Venezuelan Paradox II
Satisfaction with democracy is low 13% down from 24% in 2016 and 49% in 2010
But support for democracy is 78% the highest in the region.
However democratic satisfaction is far higher among those who perceive Venezuela’s economic situation good, 72% than those who see it as bad 14%
The highest differential in Latin America
Results suggest governments defined as left-of-center proving more successful at generating a sense of inclusiveness and participation even absence good economic governance.

13. Assessment
Rather than a challenge to democracy itself, key demand seems to be for more and better democracy in form of increased participation
Combined with a perception that political parties are governing in the interests of the few – points to emergence of new political movements and more fragile governability.