Native and immigrant fertility patterns in Greece: a comparative study based on aggregated census statistics and IPUMS micro-data Cleon Tsimbos 1, Georgia Verropoulou 1 & Christos Bagavos 2 1 University of Piraeus, Athens 2 Panteion University of Athens

Objectives of the study 1. To examine fertility patterns and differentials between native and immigrant populations in Greece, with particular reference to Albanians and Bulgarians, based on the 2001 census 2. To compare fertility and proportions of childlessness by cohort between complete census data and IPUMS micro-data (a 10% sample) 3. To explore factors associated with fertility differentials applying multivariate techniques to IPUMS data sets

Data: the 2001 Greek Census Data used in the analysis: Special tabulations of census data, produced by the National Statistical Service of Greece Numbers of children ever born to women, by age and citizenship of mother Year of first and of second birth Focus on: Fertility of women born Fertility of women born Three citizenships: Greeks, Albanian and Bulgarian (Albanian 57.5% & Bulgarians 4.6% of immigrants) Three citizenships: Greeks, Albanian and Bulgarian (Albanian 57.5% & Bulgarians 4.6% of immigrants)

Data: the IPUMS micro-data A 10% sample of the census A 10% sample of the census Systematic sample of households Systematic sample of households Smallest identifiable geographical unit: municipalities with 20,000+ inhabitants Smallest identifiable geographical unit: municipalities with 20,000+ inhabitants Includes all persons residing in private households Includes all persons residing in private households In total 1,028,884 person records and 367,438 household records In total 1,028,884 person records and 367,438 household records For the first time micro-data available for Greece For the first time micro-data available for Greece Became available only recently Became available only recently

Figure 1. Mean number of children ever born in 2001 by citizenship: birth cohorts (census data)

The figures are comparable only for women of the same cohort The figures are comparable only for women of the same cohort Women born in have completed their fertility as they would be at least age 45 in Also women born in would have nearly completed their reproductive lives by 2001 Women born in have completed their fertility as they would be at least age 45 in Also women born in would have nearly completed their reproductive lives by 2001 Fertility is higher for Albanians for all cohorts and lowest for Bulgarians Fertility is higher for Albanians for all cohorts and lowest for Bulgarians Marked decline in fertility of Albanians born between 1950 and 1959 probably reflects a genuine trend Marked decline in fertility of Albanians born between 1950 and 1959 probably reflects a genuine trend Most of the observed fertility was realized in the country of origin as the vast majority of immigrants arrived in Greece since 1991 Most of the observed fertility was realized in the country of origin as the vast majority of immigrants arrived in Greece since 1991

Figure 2. Cumulative cohort fertility for first births by cohort-group and citizenship: birth cohorts Albanian immigrants have the highest cumulative first-birth rates followed by native and Bulgarian women for all cohorts Women born in the 1950s exhibit a fairly constant propensity to become mothers, irrespectively of citizenship Levels for Bulgarian women born over the 1960s follow a marked declining trend For all cohorts timing of first births for Bulgarian women is earlier than for other citizenships

Figure 3. Cohort fertility for second and third or higher order by citizenship: birth cohorts For all birth orders and cohorts, cumulative fertility is, as expected, highest for Albanians and lowest for Bulgarians. The top figure (2 nd birth order) shows virtually unchanged patterns for women born in the 1950s for all citizenships The bottom figure (3 rd and higher birth orders) shows a very marked decrease (from 0.82 to 0.37) for Albanian women Only slight decreases for Greek and Bulgarian women

Table 1 Women by citizenship and year of birth based on the 2001 Census and IPUMS data: birth cohorts

Comments on Table 1 IPUMS proposes the use of equal weights (=10) for all Greek micro-data. IPUMS proposes the use of equal weights (=10) for all Greek micro-data. Taking this into account, the IPUMS weighted data would total 1,280,670 Greek, 49,560 Albanian and 9,380 Bulgarian women. Taking this into account, the IPUMS weighted data would total 1,280,670 Greek, 49,560 Albanian and 9,380 Bulgarian women. Compared to the census enumeration, these figures show an undercount of 5%, 8% and 10% for the Greek, Albanian and Bulgarian women, respectively. Compared to the census enumeration, these figures show an undercount of 5%, 8% and 10% for the Greek, Albanian and Bulgarian women, respectively. For the five-year cohort groups, the difference ranges from 3% to 6% for Greek women, from 7% to 9% for Albanians and from 6% to 19% for Bulgarians. For the five-year cohort groups, the difference ranges from 3% to 6% for Greek women, from 7% to 9% for Albanians and from 6% to 19% for Bulgarians. In all cases, the IPUMS data tend to underestimate the census counts, apart from the cohort of Bulgarian women. In all cases, the IPUMS data tend to underestimate the census counts, apart from the cohort of Bulgarian women. This might indicate a need for computing appropriate weights for the smaller population sub-groups. This might indicate a need for computing appropriate weights for the smaller population sub-groups.

Figure 4 Cohort fertility by citizenship : birth cohort groups

Comments on Figure 4: The mean numbers of children ever born for all cohorts of Greek and Albanian women are fairly similar for both data sources, showing a decreasing trend for successive cohorts The mean numbers of children ever born for all cohorts of Greek and Albanian women are fairly similar for both data sources, showing a decreasing trend for successive cohorts For Bulgarians there is a discrepancy for the birth cohort of women !! For Bulgarians there is a discrepancy for the birth cohort of women !!

Figure 5 Percentage childless by citizenship: birth cohort groups

Comments on Figure 5: Proportions of childless women are lowest for Albanian women and highest for Bulgarian, for all cohorts, confirmed from both data sources An increasing tendency for women of all ethnicities to remain childless, between successive cohort-groups Again some discrepancies between census and IPUMS data, particularly for Bulgarian women born over Overall, IPUMS data tend to underestimate proportions of childless women

Assessing associations based on IPUMS micro- data: Differentials by educational attainment for selected employment statuses Methods: Logistic regression models. –Model 1: having at least one child in comparison to being childless –Model 2: having at least two children in comparison to having only one –Model 3: having at least three children in comparison to having only two All models control for year of birth of women (age effects). All models control for year of birth of women (age effects). Independent variable: educational attainment, in three categories: Independent variable: educational attainment, in three categories: –0-6 years of schooling (at the most primary education) –7-12 years (any secondary) –13 years or more (any post-secondary qualification)

Model 1: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least one child by employment status and citizenship ( cohorts)

Comments on Model 1: For Greek women, overall: higher educational attainment seems to have a negative relationship with progression from childlessness to first birth. For Greek women, overall: higher educational attainment seems to have a negative relationship with progression from childlessness to first birth. The odds ratios indicate pronounced effects among currently employed women. The odds ratios indicate pronounced effects among currently employed women. Among Greek housewives with 7-12 yrs of schooling, odds of progressing to a first birth seem more favourable than among their less educated counterparts. Among Greek housewives with 7-12 yrs of schooling, odds of progressing to a first birth seem more favourable than among their less educated counterparts. For Albanian and Bulgarian women, overall, more years of education seem to increase chances of a first birth. For Albanian and Bulgarian women, overall, more years of education seem to increase chances of a first birth. Associations are not significant for currently employed Bulgarian women; by contrast, they are very pronounced and significant among housewives. Associations are not significant for currently employed Bulgarian women; by contrast, they are very pronounced and significant among housewives.

Model 2: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least two children compared to mothers with one child, by employment status and citizenship ( cohorts)

Comments on Model 2: Odds ratios indicate that for all women, independently of citizenship, higher educational attainment is related to lower chances of having a second child, among mothers who already have one. Odds ratios indicate that for all women, independently of citizenship, higher educational attainment is related to lower chances of having a second child, among mothers who already have one. This relationship seems to have the steepest gradient for Bulgarian women while for Greek women and, in particular for Albanians, it is somewhat flatter. This relationship seems to have the steepest gradient for Bulgarian women while for Greek women and, in particular for Albanians, it is somewhat flatter. Though chances of progression to a second birth are lower for currently employed women for all citizenships, differentiation compared to housewives is rather small Though chances of progression to a second birth are lower for currently employed women for all citizenships, differentiation compared to housewives is rather small

Model 3: Odds Ratios showing associations of educational attainment with having at least three children compared to mothers with two children, by employment status and citizenship ( cohorts)

Comments on Model 3: Higher educational attainment has a negative association with chances of progression to a third birth and births of higher order for all women, independently of citizenship. Higher educational attainment has a negative association with chances of progression to a third birth and births of higher order for all women, independently of citizenship. Differentiation between citizenships is minimal. Differentiation between citizenships is minimal. Similarly, differentiation between currently employed women and housewives is limited. Similarly, differentiation between currently employed women and housewives is limited. In comparison to the odds ratios for Model 2, the greatest difference can be observed for Albanian women In comparison to the odds ratios for Model 2, the greatest difference can be observed for Albanian women

Conclusions - Discussion Albanians have the highest fertility and constitute a large ethnic group. Hence, it is expected that their fertility may have a strong impact on period rates in Greece. However, as their fertility declines for successive cohorts, effects will decrease over time Albanians have the highest fertility and constitute a large ethnic group. Hence, it is expected that their fertility may have a strong impact on period rates in Greece. However, as their fertility declines for successive cohorts, effects will decrease over time Educational attainment has differential associations with the decision of native and immigrant women to become mothers Educational attainment has differential associations with the decision of native and immigrant women to become mothers For Greek women, more years in education reduce chances of progression to a first birth (the only exception being housewives with secondary education) and, more substantially, chances of a second birth and births of higher order For Greek women, more years in education reduce chances of progression to a first birth (the only exception being housewives with secondary education) and, more substantially, chances of a second birth and births of higher order Higher educational attainment has also a negative association with progression to second and higher birth orders for immigrant women BUT seems positive for having a first birth Higher educational attainment has also a negative association with progression to second and higher birth orders for immigrant women BUT seems positive for having a first birth It would be of interest to explore why associations differ between ethnic groups!! It would be of interest to explore why associations differ between ethnic groups!! IPUMS micro-data are very useful for identifying and exploring such associations IPUMS micro-data are very useful for identifying and exploring such associations

Selected References Verropoulou G, Bagavos C and C Tsimbos (2007) Migrant and Non-Migrant Fertility in Greece: Results Based on the 2001 Population Census. Migration Letters, 4(2): Verropoulou G, Bagavos C and C Tsimbos (2007) Migrant and Non-Migrant Fertility in Greece: Results Based on the 2001 Population Census. Migration Letters, 4(2): Bagavos C, Tsimbos C and G Verropoulou. (2008). Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach. European Journal of Population, 24(4): Bagavos C, Tsimbos C and G Verropoulou. (2008). Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort Approach. European Journal of Population, 24(4): Tsimbos C, Verropoulou G and C Bagavos. (2008) Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: An Approach Based on IPUMS Microdata and Aggregated Census Data ( cohorts). IPUMS Workshop: Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens, March 18, 20, (on line: europe/) Tsimbos C, Verropoulou G and C Bagavos. (2008) Native and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: An Approach Based on IPUMS Microdata and Aggregated Census Data ( cohorts). IPUMS Workshop: Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens, March 18, 20, (on line: europe/)