1. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March' Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi Institute of Education Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth

2. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Background I  Recognition that rates of transition to parenthood are decreasing - Men and women are postponing parenthood or avoiding parenthood altogether.  Known patterns of social polarisation in age at first birth. Early parenthood associated with a range of negative predictive characteristics and outcomes for parents and children.  Recent interest has focussed upon role of education in determining rates of transition to parenthood.  In particular, education differentials have been isolated as markers of increasing polarisation in age at first birth.

3. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Background II

4. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Background & Aims  (Wolf): Graduate women = 'the Monstrous Army on the March'  What about graduate men – monstrous army still marching?  Focus has been on increasing polarisation and rising childlessness – but several different scenarios possible  In addition are differentials caused by different sample composition within groups, postponement or genuine decreased levels of transition? Aims:  Explore polarisation within and between two birth cohorts  Examine the situation for males – increasing polarisation too?  Examine some of the determinants of fertility differentials

5. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Data I  Analysis will use data from two British Birth Cohorts – National Child Development Study (NCDS, 1958) and the British Cohort Survey (BCS70, 1970).  Both studies began as a census of all UK births in a week, with additions in childhood waves.  In total, data for 18,558 and 18,731 collected at some point for NCDS and BCS70 respectively.  Attrition has affected both studies, with sample sizes at the last wave of data collection totalling around 9,500 for both.  However, population estimates of fertility transition appear consistent with external data (for women)

6. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Data II 1965 NCDS (Age 7) 1969 NCDS (Age 11) 1970 BCS70 Birth 1974 NCDS (Age 16) 1975 BCS70 (Age 5) 1981 NCDS (Age 23) 1980 BCS70 (Age 10) 1986 BCS70 (Age 16) 1991 NCDS (Age 33) 1996 BCS70 (Age 26) 2000 NCDS (Age 42) 2000 BCS70 (Age 30) 2004 BCS70 (Age 34) 2004 NCDS (Age 46) 1958 NCDS Birth

7. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Changes in Sample Composition  Twelve year gap between cohorts has meant both were born into very different British societies (Wadsworth, Ferri et al. 2003). In particular, large changes in educational achievement.

8. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Entry into parenthood: Overall cohort populations  Similar proportions of early parents exist in both cohorts. Differences open up in early and mid twenties so that by 34 years: Gender ♂♀ Cohort NCDS (N = 7,142) BCS70 (N = 5,862) NCDS (N = 7,034) BCS70 (N = 6,062) Parents at Age 20 years3.9%3.2%12.8%10.1% Parents at Age 25 years28.2%16.6%41.4%29.7% Parents at Age 34 years68.0%53.2%77.9%68.9%

9. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Highest educational level as a marker of polarisation Qualifications at age 33/34 years ♂ ♀ Tertiary Level NCDS (N = 1,727) BCS70 (N = 2,108) NCDS (N = 1,550) BCS70 (N = 2,301) Parents at Age 22 years2.8%2.0%1.7%7.3% Parents at Age 34 years61.4%44.2%64.6%57.7% Intermediate NCDS (N = 3,261) BCS70 (N = 2,511) NCDS (N = 3,459) BCS70 (N = 2,716) Parents at Age 22 years10.6%8.0%23.0%20.8% Parents at Age 34 years69.9%57.2%80.6%75.6% None NCDS (N = 686) BCS70 (N = 285) NCDS (N = 824) BCS70 (N = 245) Parents at Age 22 years21.4%15.1%50.1%52.7% Parents at Age 34 years71.7%60.4%88.0%81.3%

10. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Predicting future trends  Numerous different approaches for predicting future trends based on existing levels of polarisation. Five approaches used in the next part: 1. NCDS parenthood 2. Postponed NCDS parenthood 3. Flight from parenthood 4. Covariate specific flight from parenthood 5. Covariate specific postponed flight from parenthood (!) ….and bringing in intentions later.

11. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Results I: Tertiary Qualified Women

12. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Results II: Tertiary Qualified Men

13. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Results III: Intermediate and No Qualifications Cohort and Projection Method Intermediate Qualifications No Qualifications ♂ ♀ ♂ ♀ Childless at 45 NCDS 20.5%13.9%24.3%10.5% BCS70 – NCDS Parenthood Rates 29.8%18.0%32.0%16.7% BCS70 – Postponed NCDS Parenthood Rates 21.7%13.5%24.1%11.0% BCS70 – Flight from Parenthood 35.0%19.7%33.9%17.6% BCS70 – Covariate Specific Flight from Parenthood 35.0%19.6%34.3%17.7% BCS70 – Covariate Specific Postponed Flight from Parenthood 28.5%15.5%27.9%13.1%

14. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Increasing rates of polarisation?  Distinctive patterns of parenthood based on educational achievement in both cohorts.  For women, relative proportions entering motherhood by highest qualification level expected to stay constant – childlessness expected to rise gradually among all groups.  For men, gap in fatherhood rates between education levels is projected to change in some scenarios.  Gap between tertiary qualified and males with no and intermediate qualifications could widen–myth of monstrous women replaced by monstrous male graduates?  Gap between males with no and intermediate qualifications could narrow.

15. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Tertiary Qualified I: Vocational Vs Academic Cohort and Projection Method ♂ ♀ Childless at 45 - Academic Childless at 45 - Vocational Childless at 45 - Academic Childless at 45 - Vocational NCDS 24.8%17.1%26.7%19.1% BCS70 – NCDS Parenthood Rates 28.2%23.6%27.8%20.3% BCS70 – Postponed NCDS Parenthood Rates 25.6%22.3%26.5%17.5% BCS70 – Flight from Parenthood 37.1%*32.9%**30.5%***22.4%*** BCS70 – Covariate Specific Flight from Parenthood 37.3%*31.0%****** BCS70 – Covariate Specific Postponed Flight from Parenthood 35.0%*25.7%**29.3%¹19.8%¹ *Using 19-32 observation time; **Using 16-32 observation time; ***Using 20-32 observation time; **** Cohort effect drops out of significance when introducing other covariates; ¹Unadjusted cohort effect is used;

16. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Tertiary Qualified II: Subject of qualification Childlessness at 34; results for academic graduates

17. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Measuring Postponement and Infertility  Information on intentions to bear children and infertility of cohort member and/or partner collected in both cohorts.  This information gives the first indications that BCS70 cohort is postponing as opposed to avoiding parenthood.

18. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Results IV: The impact of postponement – Tertiary Qualified Males

19. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Results V: The impact of postponement – Tertiary Qualified Females

20. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Conclusions I  Social Polarisation is evident in age at first birth.  Higher education levels obtained are correlated with later transition to parenthood.  Delay appears to have affected males with tertiary qualifications disproportionately.  Populations stratified by education level are not homogeneous between cohorts.  Partial estimates that do not fully take postponement and infertility into account predict higher rates of childlessness for all populations stratified by education level.

21. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Conclusions II  When postponement and infertility are factored in, projected childlessness could actually drop. Polarisation remains in age of transition although attenuated for final transition rates.  However, this could well be offset by higher rates of unintended childlessness.  Mirowsky (2005) suggests 34 years to be the optimum age for childbearing taking into account socioeconomic and biological factors.  In terms of intentions at least, little truth in ‘monstrous army on the march’ for women (or men). Future Work:  Project flight from parenthood scenario using infertility and postponement information

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