1. Are women in Europe still having babies? Marion Burkimsher University of Lausanne, Switzerland

2. Glacier Snow Meltwater Sublimin -ation Population Births Deaths Immigr -ation Emigr -ation GlaciologyDemography

3. Questions we will explore Does the Total Fertility Rate say how many children women are having? Which European country had the lowest TFR in recent years and when? If fertility is below replacement level for decades, will the population shrink? What has been the big change in fertility behaviour in recent years? What statistics are needed to make accurate fertility forecasts?

4. ‘Lowest-low’ fertility seen in many countries Total Fertility Rate (TFR) < 1.3 children per woman Bulgaria 1.12 in 1997 Czech Republic1.14 in 1999 Russia1.16 in 1999 Slovakia1.19 in 2003 Slovenia1.20 in 2003 Lithuania1.24 in 2002 Hungary1.27 in 2003 Estonia1.29 in 1998 All these countries are in Eastern Europe Data from Human Fertility Database

5. In Western Europe TFRs did not drop quite as low Austria 1.33 in 2001 Switzerland1.39 in 2001 Sweden1.51 in 1999 Netherlands1.53 in 1996 (had been lower - 1.47 in 1983) Finland1.70 in 1998 Across Europe the year of minimum TFR was ~ 2000 Since then TFRs have been rising in almost all countries

6. Data source: 14 countries in Human Fertility Database

7. But Portugal is the exception to prove the rule! Portugal saw a maximum TFR in 2000 and a steady decline after

8. So did women in some countries have only ~1 child? The Population Reference Bureau’s definition of TFR is “The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age- specific fertility rates of a given year” However, it is not quite so simple…. TFR is a period measure and indicates the intensity or popularity of childbearing in a particular year The number of children a woman actually has depends on her fertility behaviour over her life - the associated measure is completed cohort fertility, CCF

9. Take Switzerland as an example… In the 2000 Swiss census, each person was asked how many children they had had. For women born in 1960 - who were, therefore, aged 40, and so approaching the end of their childbearing years - the mean number of children they had had was 1.73 But the average TFR for the period 1980-1999 was 1.53 ! Why the big difference between 1.53 and 1.73 ?

10. Possible reasons for mismatch between period fertility rates and cohort fertility rates Data errors: Birth registrations Population totals by age “Sampling” errors in the census Change in population between years of birth and census Differential mortality Immigration and emigration Postponement of childbearing

11. Being born in Switzerland does not give the right to Swiss nationality. Most immigrants arrive in their 20s

13. How does postponement make babies ‘disappear’? In Switzerland there has been a steady rise in the Mean Age at First Birth (MAB1) of about 1 month per year, which has gone on for the past 40 years!!! This means that, in effect, in every year from 1970 onwards a month’s worth of babies were ‘postponed’ and were born in the following year So 1/12th of babies are missing from each year’s TFR measure! This accounts for the observed difference of ~0.2 babies/woman

14. Birth order 1 increase started 1971 Birth order 2 increase started 1973 Birth order 3 increase started 1980 Birth order 4 increase started 1986 Birth order 5+ increase started 1991 Gap between mean age at 1st birth and 4th birth declined from 8 years in 1972 to 4.9 in 1990 and since then has been steady

15. Increase in MAB1 across Europe 1998-2008 Western Europe Portugal 26.1 … 27.7 ∆ 1.59 Austria 26.1 … 27.8 ∆ 1.61 Finland 27.4 … 28.2 ∆ 0.72 Sweden 27.8 … 28.8 ∆ 1.00 N’lands 28.7 … 29.1 ∆ 0.37 Switz. 28.2 … 29.7 ∆ 1.47 Eastern Europe Bulgaria 22.9 … 25.0 ∆ 2.10 Russia 23.1 … 24. 4 ∆ 1.28 Estonia 23.6 … 25.8 ∆ 2.17 Lith. 23.6 … 25.8 ∆ 2.15 Slovakia 23.6 … 26.4 ∆ 2.82 Czech Rep 24.4 … 27.2 ∆ 2.97 Hungary 24.5 … 27.2 ∆ 2.67 Slovenia 25.8 … 28.2 ∆ 2.37

16. Changes in the fertility curve Let’s look at the age-specific fertility rates (total births by age of woman divided by the population of women of that age) Reproductive age range: 15-49 In Switzerland, peak rates for first births were age 22 in 1970 and are now age 30 What other changes have happened?

17. The FR1 is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates, ie. the area under the curve. The TFR is the sum of all birth orders

18. Changes in fertility rate curves in period 1969-2009 Peak has become later (tempo change, timing of childbearing) Peak has become lower (change in intensity) Curve has become wider (increase in standard deviation in MAB1) Curve has changed from being skewed left to nearly symmetric

19. Trends in birth order 1 fertility rates

20. How do period and cohort fertility curves differ?

21. Differences between period and cohort curves Births at younger ages are postponed (women do not follow the synthetic TFR of the year in which they are 15) There is an excess of births at older ages (past the peak) compared to those postponed from younger ages This growth in older age childbearing (particularly of first births) causes the CCF to be greater than the TFR

22. Explanation of recent rises in TFRs Is it declining postponement rates (proposed by Bongaarts & Sobotka)? My analysis shows it is more complicated…. Trends in TFRs are driven by changes in first birth rates - higher birth orders follow in succession. First birth rates can also be considered as the reflection of the childlessness rate. They are affected by changes in the economy, government policy, ‘norms’

23. Stage 1: increasing ‘postponement’ rates (surprising!); so driver of TFR rise was marked increase in post-peak childbearing

24. Stage 2: declining postponement rates; accentuated the TFR rises

25. Almost all countries have seen a broadening of the fertility curves: increase in births at older ages exceeds decline at younger ages

26. Parity 1 increase started 1994 Parity 2 increase started 1995 Parity 3 increase started 1998 Parity 4 increase started 2001 Parity 5+ increase started 2001 Reversal in order! Parity 1 had least variability, now most; high parities were most variable, now least

27. Some countries have seen increased intensity of childbearing, particularly 2nd births, while other countries have not

28. What is the best estimate of how many children women are having in Europe, taking postponement & recuperation into account? (Bongaarts & Sobotka method) Eastern European countries Bulgaria 1.7 in 2007 Czech Republic1.8 in 2007 Estonia1.9 in 2006 Russia1.6 in 2007 Slovenia1.7 in 2008 Western European countries Sweden 2.0 in 2006 Netherlands 1.8 in 2006 Austria 1.7 in 2006 Finland1.9 in 2007 Switzerland1.7 in 2008 A fall in TFR (or slow-down in increase) after 2008 may occur in many countries because of the recession - but not necessarily all

29. Will there be a decline in population? Depends on: Migration - balance of immigration and emigration Changes in life expectancy

30. A woman in Switzerland can expect to die when her 1st child reaches 57?

31. Natural increase of Switzerland’s population has remained positive even in 40+ years of below replacement level fertility. Births have always exceeded deaths because life expectancy keeps rising. Number of births depend on structure of population.

32. What’s happening to fertility rates in New Zealand?

33. What data do you need to make good forecasts? Accurate register of births by biological birth order and age of mother (marital birth order is not helpful if many non- marital births and complex partnership histories) Accurate mid-year population counts of women by age (not necessarily easy with migration) Length of time since previous birth (spacing) If vital statistics cannot provide good fertility data, then surveys can help, eg. FFS, GGS, panel surveys…

34. Questions we have explored Does the Total Fertility Rate say how many children women have? Not exactly, because of effect of timing Which European country had the lowest TFR in recent years and when? 1.12 in Czech Republic, 1997 If fertility is below replacement level for decades, will the population shrink? Not necessarily, depends on mortality & migration What has been the big change in fertility behaviour in recent years? Big increase in later childbearing What statistics are needed to make accurate fertility forecasts? Births by biological birth order, population numbers, spacing

35. Thank you!