A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (United Nations, 2004)

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Presentation transcript:

A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (United Nations, 2004) Prioritized but intimately connected These are systemic challenges that require systemic understanding and systemic solutions Policies and budgets must be harmonized among all parties WATERWATER WEALTHWEALTH

Integrity DATA PATHOLOGIES THE CURE Forbidden Knowledge Lost History Manufacturing Consent Missing Information Fog Facts Propaganda Rule by Secrecy Weapons of Mass Deception

Level of AnalysisThreat GradeComment Strategic Sustainability LOW (2.0) Not sustainable for more than two weeks. Operational Availability MEDIUM (3.0) Many of them scattered around. Tactical Reliability LOW (2.0) Cannibalized parts, stored in open, poorly trained crews. Technical Lethality HIGH (4.0) Best tanks money could buy at the time from Russia. US IC Official Threat on Worst Case Basis General Threat Factor <MEDIUM (2.75) Proper analysis differentiated threat at each level which means each level commander is individually informed. Military Difference 1.25 (31%) Being wrong by 31% is significant nuances matter. On balance, at two of four levels, threat is a LOW threat. Threat (or Factor Being Evaluated) Changes at Each Level of Analysis

Rule 5 Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant USA failed to translate captured documents from first World Trade Center bombing and from Philippines Need global network of on-call translators in 29+ languages Web-based OSS Terrorism Project 1999 Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu Millions

Figure 9: Concept for Information Operations 24/7 in All Languages & Mediums HISTORY All Cultures, All Languages FUTURE One World, Get A Grip

Thinking Holistically Everything is ConnectedGet a Grip!

TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires Just Enough, Just in Time Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital Rolodexes/ Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work

Future History & Current Now

State Targets – Lots of Assets Organizational Targets – Very Few Assets Individual Targets – Virtually No Assets

Figure 28: Information & Intelligence Element of Regional Centre

Figure 30: Low-Tech Individual Hand-Held Access (Generally Free)

Figure 28: Information & Intelligence Element of Regional Centre

New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security. 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthPeace Navy Engineers: Less Gov Spec Cost Plus, More Peace & Prosperity Engineering

Intelligence-Driven Stabilization & Reconstruction