1. Canada’s Strategic threat and risk assessment: An Intelligence Tool to Fight against iuu
Yves Goulet
Director, National Fisheries Intelligence Service
Fisheries & Oceans Canada

2. The Conservation & Protection Branch
C&P is the enforcement arm
Has approximately 600 Fishery Officers
Promotes and maintains compliance with legislation, regulations, policies and management measures implemented to achieve the conservation and sustainable use of Canada’s aquatic resources, and the protection of species at risk, fish habitat and oceans

4. Strategic Threat & Risk Assessment
Standardized methodological process
Identify, assess and prioritize the most significant threats and risks to conservation of fisheries
Provides a national and regional understanding of the environmental, species, fishery and industry profiles
Basis for to formulate an appropriate response evidence-based decision-making

5. Threat Risk Assessment
STRA Methodology
Combines both a Threat and Risk Assessment
Probability & Impact
Threat Assessment
CAPABILITY
Risk Assessment
INTENT
HARM
Knowledge & Resources
Confidence & Desire
VULNERABILITY
Prioritized
Threat Risk Assessment

6. Key Definitions: Threats Assessments
Threats: Individuals, groups or organisations whose activities are likely to cause damage, harm or loss to the resource Assessed by looking at the threat: Capabilities Intent

7. Key Definitions: Threats Assessments
Intent Desire of a threat to engage in activities and the level of confidence of success Assessment will prioritize: 1-Those who have demonstrated intent 2-Those whose intent is unknown Capability Function of the resources and knowledge available to a threat Expressed in a series of capability attributes

8. Key Definitions: Threats Assessments
Capability Attributes:
Skills, methods or common practices that enable entities to gain a foothold in fishery or a geographic location.
Included in our model:
Corruption/Infiltration
Private Sector Involvement
Organized IUF, IUU, Criminal Links, collusion
Unlawful Distribution / Laundering
Sophistication
Scope
Unlawful enterprise
Violence

9. Capability Attribute Weights:
Ranked and arranged in order of their ability to create or add to an IUF group, maintain control or order over operations, and/or avoid detection or apprehension.

10. Capability Attribute Weights and Values
Each of the 7 attributes has five possible values: High, Medium, Low, Nil, or Unknown
Each value is weighted and defined, giving indicators that analysts use to compare different entities reliably
VALUE
SCORE
DEFINITION
High 4
Demonstrated ability to corrupt officials responsible for the management and control of fisheries, or parties working on behalf of the department.
Medium 3
Has attempted to corrupt officials responsible for the management and control of fisheries or parties working on behalf of the department.
Unknown 2
Unable to assess.
Low 1
Has known associations with officials responsible for the management and control of fisheries or parties working on behalf of the department, but there are no indications of attempted corruption.
Nil
No ability or attempt to corrupt or infiltrate.

11. Threat Capability Score
Threat Scale
RCMP methodology customized for Fisheries & Oceans Canada
First attempt at incorporating a mathematical model into the C&P categorization of organized entities
IUF Attribute
High
Medium
Unknown
Low
Nil
Threat Capability Score
Corruption/ Infiltration 16 12 8 4
Private Sector Involvement Infiltration
Organized IUF, IUU, Criminal Links, Collusion 9 6 3
Unlawful Distribution/ Laundering 2
Sophistication
Scope 1
Unlawful Enterprise
Maximum Capability Score 68
Total Threat Capability Score 51
Overall Threat Score 75

12. Threat Results Presentation
The entities are listed on one axis and the attributes on the other.
The matrix is filled in with the respective values for each attribute for each group.
The values are color-coded on the matrix.

13. Same logic applied to vulnerabilities on the risk side of the model
Probability & Impact
Threat Assessment
CAPABILITY
Risk Assessment
INTENT
HARM
Knowledge & Resources
Confidence & Desire
VULNERABILITY
Prioritized
Threat Risk Assessment
Same logic applied to vulnerabilities on the risk side of the model

14. Key Definitions: Risks Assessments
Vulnerability: Weakness or gaps in the protection of assets that can be exploited by threats.
Used as indicators of Probability
Included in our model:
Stock Health
Management Regime
Enforcement Capacity

15. Key Definitions: Risks Assessments
Harms: Type and magnitude of negative consequence that would occur should a vulnerability be exploited.
Includes both direct and indirect Impacts
Form part of the assessment’s narrative
Included in our model:
Environmental
Economic
Social
Political

16. Threat, Risk and Harms Results PresentationC
THREAT A
HARMS =
STRA B D
VULNERABILITIES

17. Results from STRA 2.0 Second articulation of the threats to fisheries
Demanding, but overall a solid, intelligence product which picked up traction in the regions and among senior management
Better at using it
Protects us against possible legal challenges and accusation of subjectivity in its target selection