WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard

Scientific questions  WG3-SQ1: What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean ?  WG3-SQ2: How can we improve heavy rainfall process knowledge and their prediction ?  WG3-SQ3: How can we improve hydrological prediction?  WG3-SQ4: How extreme hydrometeorological events will evolve under future climate conditions during the XXIst century?

WG3 Contributions  ~ 40 contributions (with already some grouping)  Substantial international involvment (France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Croatia Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, USA)  Atmospheric / Hydrological Proposals

EOP SOP 2016 LOP 2017 Western Med + Greece Eastern Med ? Enhanced existing observatories and observing systems in the key regions of high-impact weather: budgets and process studies (+ dedicated short field campaigns) Enhanced current operational observing system over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access  ‘data policy’) Special observing periods of high-impact weather events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircrafts, ships,…): process studies Phasing with THORPEX, HALO, MEDEX Observation strategy : EOP/SOP

Observational strategy 1. Make an optimal use of existing networks 2. Select a number of target areas 3. Identify appropriate upstream supersites 4. Complement the observations over the sea 5. Deploy a number of instrumented aircraft (SOP) 6. Define numerical products for the mission planning  Document the entire life cycle of HPE events

1 - Different existing networks EOP  SOP  Wind profilers  Wind, Moisture  Lidars  Aerosols, Moisture  GPS  Moisture  Radars  Precipitation, Wind, Microphysics  Lightning detection  Microphysics

2 - Possible HPE target areas CV CA DA Four contrasted areas (rural/urban, medium/high orography, including one semi-arid area) FV CR AP VA

3 - Upwind sites CV CA DAFV CR AP VA

3 - Upwind sites instrumentation RS / UHF / VHF / Sodar / RASS Lidar aerosol GPS Water vapor lidar or MW radiometer Operational radar or X band radar Optimal distribution of available instruments ?

4 – Extend the measurements over the sea  Space (Cloudsat, Calipso, …)  Balloons (boundary layer bal., aeroclipper, driftsondes)  Shipborne instruments : RS, GPS, UHF, …  Local measurements (precip ?)  Aircraft (in situ, WV and wind lidar, cloud and precip radar ?)

5 - SOP Aircraft operation  SAFIRE ATR + WV Lidar LEANDRE II + microphysics  SAFIRE FALCON + RALI + microphysics + DS ?  HALO (NEPTUN, THORPEX) + Wind +WV lidar  IMK Dornier 28 (Turbulent fluxes)  DLR FALCON ??  NRL/P3 + ELDORA + Microphysics ??  1 M€ PIs need to be identified and/or confirmed

5 - Aircraft operations (1) SOP BAE 146 T-NAWDEX HALO T- NAWDEX Far upstream precursors

5 - Aircraft operations (2) SOP HALO- NEPTUN DO 28 ATR + LEANDRE Close upstream documentation of the pre-convective environment

5 - Aircraft operations (3) SOP F-FALCON + RALI NRL P3 + ELDORA Sampling of the precipitating system with microphysics measurements for radar retrieval validation

6 - Modelling strategy : (e.g. AROME –Med domain) Many other proposals but for mission planning  ECMWF, ARPEGE, ALADIN …

An example HPE target area: Cévennes-Vivarais (CV) Upwind supersite GPS transects 4 to 5 X band radars Similar setting over Spain, Italy, Greece?

MAP – IOP2B – 6h precip

MAP – IOP2B – PV + 850hPa

Available instrumentation LA (?) UHF wind profiler Radiometer (T, qv,ql) DLR (?) POLDIRAD Cloud radar (HALO) LATMOS X Band Radar (?) Hydrix (Marseille?) IMK ( Date ?) 2 RS stations Doppler wind lidar (PBL/low trop) Cloud radar Surface measurements Univ. Hohenheim (?) WV lidar X band radar Univ Potenza (?) WV lidar

Modelling strategy : Many proposals and probably more to come / Focus on Real time for IIP  Many HR plateforms AROME WRF MOLOCH COSMO MESO-NH  Strong need for effective guidance

Lidar network : Moisture and aerosol monitoring (G.Liberti) 11 WV lidars 3 movable Roma / Potenza Hohenheim Optimal location for SOPs? SOP : Corsica ? Majorca ? Montpellier ?

GPS network : Moisture monitoring (O. Bock) SOP : Additional stations in specific target areas and on ships

QPF and HPE radar network (?? + O. Bousquet) African cost ?? Corsica – Western cost ?? Poldirad - Ebro valley ?? 3D Wind – 4 years – 15’ + Micoph. Retrieval (SOP)

Monitoring of lightning activity Link between the 2 proposals? Additional needs for SOP ???  Defer et al. PROFEO, LINET, METEORAGE, ATD Multiscale strategy (storm, region, basin)  Lagouvardos et al. ZEUS, LINET

Wind profiler network (J.L. Caccia) Nice (uncertain), Minorca (?), Corsica (LA UHF, ?) Montpellier Network dense enough for a high quality 3D wind retrieval ?

(Ducrocq)) Select HPE target areas EOP  SOP

(Frei and Schär) Select HPE target areas EOP  SOP

Deep convection in Fall (SON) – AMSU B Funatsu et al, MWR cond. accepted

DJF MAM JJA SON Data: NOAA Rain from GPCPRain + DCDC only