1. Unstable Science Question 2 John Hanesiak CEOS, U. Manitoba Unstable Workshop, Edmonton, AB April 18-19, 2007

2. Science Question 2 What are the contributions of surface processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills region?

3. Equipment Radiometrics WVR-1100 –Total column vapor and liquid water –Temporal resolution depends on scanning cycle Acoustic Doppler sodar –3-component winds & standard deviations –Up to 1km, 50m resolution, 15-30 min averages AERI –Vertical profiles of temperature & vapor –Up to 3km, 100-200m resolution, every 15 min –Limitation = clouds & low level saturation Radiometrics 3000A –Vertical profiles of temperature & vapor, cloud base, & total column –Up to 10km, 100-250m resolution, less than 5 min –Limitation = precipitation MARS (Mobile Atmospheric Research System) Portable rawinsonde 2 Campbell Sci weather stations Laser precipitation sensor Mobile vehicle (T, RH, wind)

4. Mobile Atmospheric Research System (MARS) UofM URGP & NSERC

5. sodar AERI AMR weather station portable rawinsonde

6. Sub-Questions & Methods (a) Is there a noticeable difference in storm initiation and evolution between wet and dry areas over the cropped region (as defined by a crop model) over the duration of the project? (b) Are there noticeable gradients of surface and boundary layer water vapour across the major wet/dry areas and how do these evolve over the project? J. Brimelow

7. Sub-Questions & Methods (c) Are mesoscale circulations detectable in the vicinity of boundaries between wet and dry areas? If so, how do they appear to influence storm initiation and evolution? Methods: Mobile observations (surface vehicle & sodar on MARS) Mesonet Array of rawinsondes Aircraft Radar? Satellite & radar for initiation zones in association with these observations

8. Sub-Questions & Methods (d) What are the latent and sensible heat fluxes over the region, especially across any wet/dry areas that may exist? How do they influence temperature and water vapor stratification? Methods: Aircraft Any available eddy correlation or bulk profile measurements Rawinsondes, MARS, radiometers, boundary layer models

9. Sub-Questions & Methods (e) How does the orientation of synoptic (background) flows modify (b) - (d) on a day-to-day basis? Methods: Synoptic analysis fields in relation to field measurements (i.e. are there detectable spatial 3D variations in thermodynamic and dynamic fields … transient boundaries) Perpendicular versus angled synoptic flows in relation to surface wet/dry boundaries

10. Sub-Questions & Methods (f) Can the surface contributions to total boundary layer moisture be quantified? Methods: Aircraft flux measurements Water balance exercise Estimated as a residual in the water balance equations? How do we deal with storage?

11. Sub-Questions & Methods (g) How can the existing observational network be improved to better represent surface processes that contribute to the initiation and development of severe thunderstorms? Methods: Soil moisture / flux measurement sensor array (strategic areas) Make better use of satellite surface products (validation) “enhance” confidence in crop model and/or CLASS output

12. Break-Outs Refinement of the UNSTABLE science questions Data, instrumentation and deployment strategies necessary to answer the science questions Who plans to be directly involved in the UNSTABLE field campaign and how Funding strategies and opportunities for in-kind support Others as suggested by discussion groups